ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

Maybe because the circulation was so small it couldn’t feed off of any water during that time?

[eastcoastFL]

About 1400 without power in broward so far and around the same in fade. 200 in palm beach.

[Kazmit]

I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

Its very flat but it’s also big- larger than all the other Bahaman islands combined.

[eastcoastFL]

Storms definitely filling back in right now

[curtadams]

I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

I don't think Andros Island had much to do with it. It looks like the main issue was dry stable air getting sheared in at midlevels and snuffing deep convection. Andros would limit the LLC's ability to loft wet moist air to resist that, but I think it was secondary.

[hohnywx]

Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

The EURO, NAM, HWRF and a few others show deeping later on. Also the pressure is still fairly low, another indicator that he could make a quick comeback.

The potential for Isaias to restrengthen is there, hence hurricane warnings are still valid. It appears that Isaias is currently starting to convection around the center. If it can maintain this convection over night, it will likely be a hurrucane by 5am.

Thank you for this...UKMET does as well.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

in my opinion, it was over it for a long enough for stable air/land friction from the island to disrupt it. plus with shear, dry air, and cutoff outflow, it was the perfect setup to weaken it for the time being.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m curious how Andros Island can cause weakening, any insight?

Its very flat but it’s also big- larger than all the other Bahaman islands combined.

I’ve just never heard of this from any of the other storms that passed over the island. Makes sense and good to know!

[SFLcane]

Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

About 1400 without power in broward so far and around the same in fade. 200 in palm beach.

Wow! I would have thought that after the storms of the 80s and 90s, utilities all would have been underground in coastal Florida by now.

[DestinHurricane]

Still think it may stay a hair to the left of new NHC track. Looks to be headed for south Bimini island. Of course it will wobble but that is the trajectory as of now.

[jhpigott]

Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.

What do the probabilities for TS winds in WPB say now after the 5pm update?

[Ubuntwo]

Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.

What do the probabilities for TS winds in WPB say now after the 5pm update?

We're up to 90%

[CFLHurricane]

About 1400 without power in broward so far and around the same in fade. 200 in palm beach.

Wow! I would have thought that after the storms of the 80s and 90s, utilities all would have been underground in coastal Florida by now.

You mistake Florida for being a fully developed state. There’s still a lot of pioneer types and second home folks who could care less about Florida’s infrastructure which is why we are not as prepared for hurricanes as we could be with underground utilities, sufficient escape routes, and extra shelters.

It’s very frustrating as a full time resident.

[CronkPSU]

Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.

What do the probabilities for TS winds in WPB say now after the 5pm update?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2048.shtml?

[Evil Jeremy]

Heads up Broward county! @ryannbc6

Probabilities for tropical storm winds...

**earlier this afternoon,
Fort Lauderdale: 52%
Miami: 13%

**now at 5pm,
Fort Lauderdale: 71%
Miami: 21%

The strongest winds will be in coastal Broward late evening, overnight.

Man, I was just about the make the exact same observation

[wxman57]

Looks like a 50-55 kt (60-65 mph) TS now. Looks like the NHC did downgrade it to a 60kt TS, thinking the plane might find stronger wind later on.

[AtlanticWind]

Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

The guidance did not show this becoming a hurricane right off the coast of hispanola .
The pressure is still low enough to support a hurricane just needs a blowup of convection
over the gulf stream.
I will trust the NHC on this.

[GCANE]

Hot tower getting stronger.
Big lightning firing off.
The Cuba infeed is hitting the last of the dry slot.
West Texas dryline effect.
At the end of DMIN.
Anti-cyclone coming over this.
South FL is lighting up
I see a bad moon risin.

[eastcoastFL]

About 1400 without power in broward so far and around the same in fade. 200 in palm beach.

Wow! I would have thought that after the storms of the 80s and 90s, utilities all would have been underground in coastal Florida by now.

You’d think so but...Florida...

Every storm one small gust and it’s out