ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[alienstorm]

Lighting being detected in the blowup just north of the LLC. This will be interesting in another hour or so.

[xironman]

The mesoscale models are still pretty bullish. They have done well this year.

[chaser1]

Nice pop of convection just to the north of center. Does the center stiff it's nose at it and move on by LOL, or wobble north and try to snuggle itself underneath for the evening?

[wx98]

Not to get excited, but he’s on his way back.

[gfsperpendicular]

Some pink tops, it's been a while.

[pgoss11]

Not to get excited, but he’s on his way back.

To me.. this is the most exciting part of tracking. Watching a storm come back from the dead. Katrina was my favorite to watch.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hot tower getting stronger.
Big lightning firing off.
The Cuba infeed is hitting the last of the dry slot.
West Texas dryline effect.
At the end of DMIN.
Anti-cyclone coming over this.
South FL is lighting up
I see a bad moon risin.

This convective burst is not messing around. Almost two full hours now since this burst started, and there are no signs of it slowing down: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[jaxfladude]

Feeling better about any serious impacts of Isaias for Northeast Florida....hopefully nothing to serious for rest of CONUS Eastern Seaboard...I hope the Bahamas fared okay and prayers....the Caribbean Islands looked to have gotten raked pretty good sadly....This is not the big threat of the season, right. More serious threats likely?

[xironman]

The storms over FL as slowly starting to erode the dry air.

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's my latest afternoon take on Isaias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-YUUcaL5R0

[ColdMiser123]

I'm wondering if the convection firing to the north could also draw the center somewhat north in the short-term. Any kind of wobbles like this matter a lot now for a track this close to the Florida coast.

[fci]

Not sure why the NHC is forecasting re-intensification into a minimal hurricane when none of model guidance does so?

They want people to still pay attention should it get a burst and re-intensify.
For those of us in the Hurricane Warning area, a TS with 60-70 and minimal Hurricane with 75-80 are basically the same thing.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Feeling better about any serious impacts of Isaias for Northeast Florida....hopefully nothing to serious for rest of CONUS Eastern Seaboard...I hope the Bahamas fared okay and prayers....the Caribbean Islands looked to have gotten raked pretty good sadly....This is not the big threat of the season, right. More serious threats likely?

100%

something else is likely going to threaten somebody

[AutoPenalti]

Convection to the north could cause the LLC to tuck underneath it.

[Steejo91]

I'm wondering if the convection firing to the north could also draw the center somewhat north in the short-term. Any kind of wobbles like this matter a lot now for a track this close to the Florida coast.

I was curious about this myself. May see a northward jog of the LLC as the convection pressure falls. Looking at Miami radar, looks like the convection is starting to get tighter along the eyewall. Giving it the illusion of stalling/slowing.

[Jr0d]

Looks like a 50-55 kt (60-65 mph) TS now. Looks like the NHC did downgrade it to a 60kt TS, thinking the plane might find stronger wind later on.

They did show a 60kt unflagged SFMR wind a few minutes ago.

[wx98]

I'm wondering if the convection firing to the north could also draw the center somewhat north in the short-term. Any kind of wobbles like this matter a lot now for a track this close to the Florida coast.

I was thinking the same thing earlier. That tends to happen with big blowups like this.

[ozonepete]

NHC finally acknowledged the dry air. It is having a serious effect in addition to the shear which is currently keeping most of the convection to the northeast quadrant. Oddly enough both are expected to diminish but not until it is east of northern Florida. But you never know...

Mid-level dry air:


Shear 15-20 knots is not terrible but certainly not good:

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy on the way

[Evil Jeremy]

I think it's logical for the LLC to be drawn more North to the new burst of convection. It actually looks to me like the convective burst is working it's way down to meet the LLC.