WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

95W INVEST 200808 0000 15.0N 118.0E WPAC 15 0

[1900hurricane]

94W has a SCS friend.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ON THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE. A 080112Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED, BROAD
CIRCUALTION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MEDIUM (15 TO
25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
95W MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

Circulation is about as well defined as 05W's which isn't saying all that much to be fair. It's located further west on the same monsoon trough. Convection is currently displaced well to the south.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAUG2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZAUG2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED, BUT CONSOLIDATING, BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE. A 090207Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MEDIUM (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 95W MOVING NORTHWARD WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Ed_2001]

0z Euro favoring slight development. 996mb on hour 22 and landfall on Southern Fujian coast by hour 48 as a tropical depression or weak TS.

[Nancy Smar]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 15.5N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN21 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 118.0E TO 20.6N 119.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 118.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED, BUT CONSOLIDATING, BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE. A 090207Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MEDIUM (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 95W MOVING NORTHWARD WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100830Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

This one's probably about ready for a renumber, although I'd wait for the next set of scatterometer passes just to be sure.

[euro6208]

Upgraded to TD 07W.

[mrbagyo]

radar loop (partial coverage)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
204 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING, DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN A
091015Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE AND THE CIRCULATION PRESENT IN THE
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T1.0 (25 KTS) AND THE 30 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN THE ELONGATED AND
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD REFLECTED IN A 091202Z ASCAT-A PASS. TD 07W IS
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE TAIWAN STRAIT. CONTINUED WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SSTS
WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KTS BY TAU 12 AND TO A MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS BY TAU 24, HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME WITH INCREASING VWS AND
CONVERGENT FLOW FROM AN INDUCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
TAIWAN STRAIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE AND HIGH (25-30 KTS) VWS WILL HINDER
INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36 AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS DISSIPATION OVER WATER. TD 07W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER MAINLAND CHINA AFTER TAU 36 WHEREUPON IT WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A 200 NM CROSS TRACK
SPREAD IN POSITIONS AT TAU 48. THIS LARGE SPREAD OF THE CROSS TRACK
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

This one might end up becoming the strongest of the trilogy just simply because it doesn't have an ULL sitting nearly on top of it like Jangmi and 06W do.

[1900hurricane]

Looking good. I will be grumpy if this is not a TS for 00Z.

[Hayabusa]

But JTWC only

07W SEVEN 200810 0000 19.2N 118.5E WPAC 35 999

[euro6208]

What a milestone. We have 3 active TS at the same time but weak.

[aspen]

What a milestone. We have 3 active TS at the same time but weak.

And they’re all incredibly ugly and unpleasant to look at. At least this one isn’t as bad as Jangmi.

[1900hurricane]

35-maybe 40 kt looks reasonable based on ASCAT.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 100256

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (W OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 10/0230Z

C. 19.27N

D. 118.59E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2101Z 18.58N 118.10E SSMS
10/0145Z 19.43N 118.47E MMHS


RHOADES