ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1225
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11661 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:25 am

You can tell it's La Niña/cool neutral when this post is dead for an entire week :lol:
11 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#11662 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:35 am

Appears that the longstanding easterly wind burst is initiating another upwelling Kelvin wave:

Image

Image

Image

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12569
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11663 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:15 pm

Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.
6 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#11664 Postby StruThiO » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:59 am

Image

Basin-wide cooling at the surface continues as relentlessly strong trades across nearly the entire Pacific refuse to relax

Image
0 likes   

St0rmTh0r
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 297
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:04 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11665 Postby St0rmTh0r » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:06 am

Kingarabian wrote:Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.

If this happens the season will have a longer peak well into October and November!
0 likes   

SconnieCane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 512
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11666 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:10 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.

If this happens the season will have a longer peak well into October and November!


Hmmmm, I just saw another post elsewhere on this site saying essentially the exact opposite...that a brief 2017-style La Nina was looking more likely.
Last edited by SconnieCane on Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2809
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11667 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:36 am

SconnieCane wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.

If this happens the season will have a longer peak well into October and November!


Hmmmm, I just saw another post elsewhere on this site saying essential the exact opposite...that a brief 2017-style La Nina was looking more likely.


Yeah I saw that too and disregarded.
2 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12569
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11668 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:45 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Also the SOI is finally opening up for a La Nina event, the first time in 3 years. I think come October both the ocean and atmosphere will be primed for a La Nina to completely take over. Cool neutral will continue in the meanwhile.

If this happens the season will have a longer peak well into October and November!


Hmmmm, I just saw another post elsewhere on this site saying essentially the exact opposite...that a brief 2017-style La Nina was looking more likely.

2017's event was a complete La Nina that lasted from September 2017 through April 2018. 2005's event started later. I think maybe a mixture of the two. I believe cool neutral conditions will be present for the most of the season, similar to 2005 and 2017.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#11669 Postby StruThiO » Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:58 am

Massive trade burst underway:

Image

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12843
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#11670 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:07 am

Big cool down last week.

Nino 1+2 at -1.1C
Nino 3 at -0.7C
Nino 3.4 at -0.8C
Nino 4 at -0.4C
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121147
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.8C

#11671 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:30 am

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#11672 Postby StruThiO » Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:42 am

ONI for MJJ was -0.2C..
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12569
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for MJJ down to -0.2C

#11673 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:58 pm

We're running cooler than 2005 and 2017 at this point in time. There's is still that small pool of warm anomalies beneath Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 that will help keep ENSO cool-neutral for longer.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12569
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11674 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:07 pm

Trades will relax over the EPAC and there might be a WWB over the CPAC/east of the dateline. This will slow down the snowball towards a full fledged La Nina that we've seen in the past month, and keep things cool neutral for a little longer.
Image
5 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12843
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#11675 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:47 am

Central ENSO regions warmed up some last week.
Today's update:

Nino 1+2 down to -1.2C
Nino 3 up to -0.6C
Nino 3.4 up to -0.6C
Nino 4 up to -0.3C
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121147
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

#11676 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:49 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 August 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch


Synopsis: There is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance).

By early August 2020, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below average in the equatorial Pacific from the Date Line to the west coast of South America [Fig. 1]. The four Niño indices were negative during the latest week, with the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 indices at -0.6°C [Fig. 2]. Negative equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W), which had weakened during June and early July, began re-strengthening in mid-July [Fig. 3] as below-average subsurface temperatures re-emerged in the east-central equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. During July, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over portions of the far western, central, and eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] are split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter, but slightly favor La Niña from the August-October through the November-January seasons. Based largely on dynamical model guidance, the forecaster consensus favors La Niña development during the August-October season, lasting through winter 2020-21. In summary, there is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

#11677 Postby StruThiO » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:38 pm

Indeed the recent easterly wind stress has generated an upwelling Kelvin wave even stronger than the last.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

#11678 Postby StruThiO » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:43 pm

July PDO fell to -0.38. Coolest July since 2013.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12569
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

#11679 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:16 pm

StruThiO wrote:Indeed the recent easterly wind stress has generated an upwelling Kelvin wave even stronger than the last.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/omwvm7g.png[url]


Modoki La Nina anyone?
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12569
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11680 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:14 pm

SOI has been in the cool-neutral range of about +4/+6 since July. So the atmospheric coupling is there. Let's see if it can reach the +10/+15 (La Nina) range after the MJO leaves the Pacific.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: aspen, SootyTern, supercane4867 and 21 guests