ATL: LAURA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS NEAR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 67.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de
Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor
the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional
watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern
Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the
Florida Keys later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 67.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto
Rico this afternoon, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and
tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. A Weatherflow observing site at Las Mareas, on
the south coast of Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(96 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h), but these winds appear
to be associated with a small-scale circulation and are not
representative of the larger-scale wind field. Some additional
strengthening is possible until the center moves over Hispaniola
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts
of 12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA HEADED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...CONTINUES TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 68.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to Key West and for the Dry Tortugas, including Florida
Bay.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Andros Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura.
Additional tropical storm watches or warnings may be needed there
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.1 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto
Rico this evening, near or over Hispaniola tonight, near or
over Cuba Sunday and Monday, and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 48
hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba. Some
strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas in Puerto Rico
recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind
gust to 40 mph (64 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern
slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night and
Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba,
much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

A couple of hours ago an observing site on the southeast coast of
Puerto Rico, Las Mareas, reported sustained winds of 52 kt. These
winds were apparently associated with a mesocyclone embedded within
the larger-scale circulation and not representative of the intensity
of the tropical storm. Scatterometer data and WSR-88D Doppler
velocities from San Juan support an intensity of 45 kt. Since the
center should be moving over land for the next 48 hours or so, no
additional intensification is anticipated until Monday night when
the center moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over warm
waters, with anticipated weak vertical shear, and anticyclonic flow
aloft, Laura will likely strengthen into a hurricane before it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the
possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf,
this forecast could be conservative. At this time it does not seem
likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the
north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should
have much of an influence on the latter system.

Center locations from earlier scatterometer data, low-cloud motions,
and Dvorak fixes from both TAFB and SAB, give a motion of about
280/16 kt. Laura should move west-northwestward along the southern
side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered near the
southeastern U.S. coast through 72 hours. Then, the cyclone is
expected to turn northwestward to northward on the western side of
the high. The official track forecast is on the right side of the
track guidance suite.

Given the predicted track and wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this
evening. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the
southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause
mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with
widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas and Andros Island Sunday night and Monday, and in
the Florida Keys on Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf
Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged
period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be
affected by Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to
the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
following provinces: Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is
still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 68.7 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola
tonight and early Sunday, near or over Cuba Sunday and Monday, and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the
next 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba.
Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern
slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These
swells are expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and
the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del
Rio

It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is
still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a
this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola
tonight and early Sunday, near or over Cuba Sunday and Monday,
and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the
next 36 to 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and
Cuba. Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Western Puerto Rico: An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 8 inches, is possible before
the rain diminishes overnight.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

Laura is now located near the eastern portion of the Dominican
Republic, and it is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms over much of Hispaniola and adjacent areas. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have been flying in the tropical storm this
evening and have found winds to support maintaining the initial
intensity of 45 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft suggests that
the pressure has fallen a little to 1003 mb, and that the center is
still quite elongated.

Laura is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is generally unchanged from earlier. A subtropical high
pressure system is expected to build westward during the next few
days, which should continue to steer Laura generally
west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace. This track should take
the storm across Hispaniola tonight and early Sunday and then across
Cuba late Sunday and Monday. Laura is then expected to emerge over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where it will likely turn northwestward
and slow down some as it reaches the western side of the ridge. The
models are in fair agreement that Laura will generally follow a
similar path to Marco when it nears the northern Gulf coast in 3 to
4 days. There has been little change in the guidance this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
This forecast is near the typically reliable TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids.

Since the tropical storm is expected to track across the
mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba during the next 36
to 48 hours, little change in intensity seems like a good bet during
that time period. However, after the storm pulls away from the
islands and moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters while being
in low wind shear and high moisture conditions, strengthening seems
very likely. Most of the better-performing intensity models show
Laura making landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast as a
hurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly
higher than the previous one, and it lies roughly near the middle
of the guidance suite.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the
southeastern Bahamas, and central and eastern Cuba through Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause
mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with
widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
central and western Cuba, the central Bahamas and Andros Island
Sunday night and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period
of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by
Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should
monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 19.3N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 20.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 22.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z 23.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 25/1200Z 24.7N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.2N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 34.7N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 70.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, and Artemisa.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 70.9 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola today, be
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 36
to 48 hours while Laura moves over or near Hispaniola and Cuba.
Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations
through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas,
and Jamaica.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches is expected across the Florida
Keys.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area for the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area for Cuba this afternoon through Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area
tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Laura has maintained an impressive convective pattern despite the
center being located over extreme south-central Dominican Republic.
Numerous cloud tops of -85C to -90C have been noted over the
Barahona peninsula, an indication that extremely heavy rainfall has
been occurring there. The center of Laura passed over or very near
Santo Domingo around 0430Z based on a noticeable wind shift that
was measured at the international airport. Laura's outflow pattern
has also continue to improve in all quadrants. The initial intensity
of 40 kt is based on earlier scatterometer and aircraft data, along
with surface observations along the north coast of the Dominican
Republic.

Laura has continued to move west-northwestward and the initial
motion estimate is now 285/16 kt. There has been a significant
westward shift in the latest NHC model guidance, which appears to be
due to most of the global models taking the center of Laura farther
south over central or southern Hispaniola rather than emerging it
off the north coast of Haiti like the GFS is and has been
forecasting. Given that the most intense convection has persisted
along the southern coast of Hispaniola, that is where the most
likely area that a low-level and/or mid-level circulation is most
probable to develop or persist. As a result, the new NHC track
forecast favors a more southerly and westerly track solution
similar to the preponderance of the track guidance. However, the
new forecast track has not been shifted as far to the left as the
consensus models in the event that the models shift back to the
north. However, the latter scenario is appearing less likely based
observed satellite trends since the previous advisory.

Little if any significant change in strength is expected due to
Laura moving pretty much down the spine of Hispaniola and Cuba
during the the next 36 hours, with the strongest wind likely
remaining over water in the northeast quadrant where the pressure
gradient will be the tightest between the cyclone and the Bermuda
High. By 48 hours and continuing until landfall, Laura is forecast
to remain in a low shear and very favorable upper-level outflow
environment while passing of extremely warm SSTs near 31C. This
should allow for significant strengthening to occur once the cyclone
regains a decent inner core after exiting Cuba. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a blend of the intensity forecasts by the GFS
and ECMWF global models and the corrected consensus models HCCA and
FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is
likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and
urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible the central Bahamas and
Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on
Monday.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is
forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period
of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by
Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should
monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 18.8N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.8N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 24/0600Z 20.9N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 22.2N 81.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0600Z 23.5N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 25/1800Z 24.9N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 26.4N 89.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 29.9N 92.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 35.0N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 72.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 72.1 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola this morning,
be near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 36 to
48 hours while Laura moves over or near Hispaniola and Cuba.
Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas,
and Jamaica.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches is expected across the Florida
Keys.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area
tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means
that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast
on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move
over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Recent data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The strongest winds are primarily occuring over water to the
northeast of the center. Little change in strength is forecast
while Laura moves near Cuba. Strengthening is forecast after the
storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to
become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas,
and Jamaica.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Florida
Keys.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area
tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are
expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the
Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA HEADING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican
Republic and has discontinued the warning along the north coast of
the Dominican Republic east of Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to
the border with Haiti
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move
over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
Cuba. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over
the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

Jamaica: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch
area tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LAURA JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the the Florida Keys north of Craig
Key and for Florida Bay has been discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern
Bahamas except for Inagua and the Ragged Islands. The Tropical
Storm Watch for the central Bahamas and Andros Island has been
discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is
expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is
forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is
forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the
Florida Keys Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Satellite imagery and radar data from eastern Cuba show that the
center of Laura has been moving over water between Haiti and eastern
Cuba this afternoon. There has been a recent uptick in convection
near the center and the radar imagery has shown an increase in
banding. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Laura
this afternoon has reported a minimum pressure that has fallen to
around 1000 mb, and winds to support an intensity of 50 kt. The
plane very recently found a small area of stronger flight-level
winds, but these winds may be associated with mesocyclone, and not
representative of the large scale circulation.

Laura continues to move briskly west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. The
track forecast reasoning remains the same as the previous advisory.
Laura should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of a
deep-layer ridge that is forecast to build westward across Florida
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. The track
guidance has continued to edge southward for the portion of the
forecast near Cuba, and the NHC forecast has again been moved in
that direction. Laura should continue moving west-northwestward
over the southeastern Gulf on Tuesday, but a turn toward the
northwest is expected Tuesday night as the cyclone nears the western
portion of the ridge. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion
should then continue around the western portion of the ridge until
the cyclone reaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The latest run of
the ECMWF has shifted significantly eastward, however its ensemble
mean and many of the stronger ensemble members remain farther west
as a stronger cyclone is likely to be steered more westward by the
deep-layer ridge. The GFS, UKMET, and HWRF remain close to the
previous NHC track, so little change was made to the official
forecast was made after 48 hours.

The intensity forecast during the next 24 hours is highly dependent
on the track and the amount of interaction Laura has with Cuba. If
the storm stays along the southern coast or just offshore, the
environment of warm water and low vertical wind shear could allow
for some slight strengthening, but little overall change in
intensity is indicated during the next 24 hours. After the center
clears western Cuba, the upper-level wind pattern is predicted to
quite favorable while the storm traverses the warm waters of the
Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, UKMET, and regional hurricane models all
indicate significant deepening, and the NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted slightly upward. Although not explicitly shown, Laura
could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane
strength.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecast at the longer range as winds, storm
surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy
rainfall is likely across Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica through Monday
and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower
Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas on Monday.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge,
wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by
the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco.
Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura
and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.5N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA
24H 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN CUBA, HAITI, AND JAMAICA....


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 75.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Inagua and the Ragged Islands in the southeastern
Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 75.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over the southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura
is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday. However,
strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or
Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An observation in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, recently
measured sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust to 44
mph (71 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1000
mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

By later Wednesday into Friday Laura is expected to produce rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and
Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the
Florida Keys Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern
Florida on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas,
Florida.

The government of Haiti has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for all of Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 76.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday, and move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura
is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura
is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Western Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas: 1
to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams and tributaries to overflow their
banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding to this
region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
westward within the warning area in Cuba through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman, Cayman
Brac, and the Dry Tortugas on Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys
Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern
Florida on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that Laura
continues to gradually become better organized. Convection is
quite deep on the south side of the circulation, and rainfall is
likely very heavy over portions of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A
surface observation from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, measured sustained
winds of 52 kt with a wind gust to 63 kt a few hours ago. Based on
this observation and the system's improved structure, the initial
intensity is nudged up to 55 kt.

Laura continues to move swiftly to the west-northwest on the south
side of a strong subtropical ridge, with the initial motion
estimated to be 285/18 kt. The subtropical high is expected to
expand westward during the next couple of days, and that should keep
Laura moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest near or over Cuba
through Monday and then across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday. The models suggest that a gradual turn to the northwest is
likely by early Wednesday as the storm nears the western side of
the ridge, followed by a northward motion after that. The details
of the northwest and north turn are quite important when trying to
figure out where the core of Laura is going to make landfall.
However, at this time there is still a notable spread in the models
and their ensemble members, meaning that it is still unclear
exactly where the worst weather conditions will occur. The NHC
track forecast is little changed from earlier and near the
consensus aids. This forecast shows landfall along the northern
Gulf coast in about 3 days.

The tropical storm is expected to move very near or over the entire
island of Cuba through Monday, and the interaction with the island
should limit strengthening during that time. However, significant
intensification is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of
Mexico due to a combination of favorable conditions of low wind
shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope. Although not explicitly forecast, Laura
could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane
strength.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba
through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica
through Monday and these rains could cause mudslides and
life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas on Monday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower
Florida Keys on Monday.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge,
wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by
the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco.
Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura
and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 20.1N 76.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
12H 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
24H 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 240854
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY....


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 78.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the middle and lower
Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to Key West.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the U.S.
northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 78.9 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
over the Caribbean Sea just offshore the southern coast of Cuba
today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Tuesday morning. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Jamaica and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas:
1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the
possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within
the warning area in the Florida middle and Lower Keys and the Dry
Tortugas this afternoon and continuing into tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Satellite data indicate that Laura has moved back over the warm
waters of the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba. Modest northerly vertical
wind shear has kept the bulk of the deep convection displaced into
the southern semicircle of Laura's circulation. Earlier ASCAT-B/-C
scatterometer passes around 0210Z-0250Z revealed a small
circulation just offshore southeastern Cuba. However, this feature
is considered to be a leeside vortex, possibly having developed in
response to the long-fetch southerly low-level flow passing over
Jamaica, and not the primary low-level center associated with Laura.
The initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt based on 43-46 kt
wind vectors located just offshore southeastern Cuba that were
present in the aforementioned ASCAT data, and allowing for some
undersampling by the scatterometer instrument.

The initial motion estimate is 290/18 kt. The deep-layer
Bermuda-Azores ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by all
of the models to build and expand westward across the Bahamas,
Florida, and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the
new few days. This dominant steering flow pattern is expected to
keep Laura moving west-northwestward just offshore the southern
coast of Cuba today, followed by the cyclone emerging over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. By late Tuesday and early
Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough located over the
south-central U.S. is forecast to pinch off and dig southwestward
and merge with the remnants of Tropical Storm Marco over the western
Gulf of Mexico, eroding the western extent of the ridge in the
process. This is expected to cause Laura to slow down and gradually
turn northwestward and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf
coast by late Wednesday and early Thursday. The latest NHC model
guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing synoptic
pattern, and the official forecast is similar to but slightly left
or south of the previous advisory track to account for the expected
northerly to northeasterly wind shear keeping the convection and
low-level center displaced to the south for the next 24 hours or so.
On the forecast track, Laura is expected to remain just offshore the
southern Cuba today, move into the Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday
morning, and approach the U..S northwest Gulf coast area Wednesday
night and early Thursday.

Since Laura's center is expected to remain over water just south of
Cuba, there is the possibility that some slight strengthening could
occur today or tonight before the cyclone reaches the Gulf of Mexico
in 24 hours. After that, Laura will be moving over the very warm
and deep waters of Gulf Stream and Loop Current located over the
southeastern Gulf, which could trigger a brief period of rapid
intensification. The GFS and ECMWF models, along with the
statistical and corrected-consensus models, only strengthen the
cyclone to a peak intensity around 75 kt. In contrast, the HRWF and
HMON models bring Laura to major hurricane strength by 60 hours.
Given the very favorable environmental conditions of high SSTs near
31 deg C and low vertical shear values less than 10 kt after 24-36
hours, subsequent intensity forecasts might have to trend more
toward the regional models. But for now, the official intensity
forecast will continue to follow a blend of the regional and global
model intensity forecasts, and lies at the high-end of the
intensity guidance at 60 and 72 hours.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba
today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and
these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry
Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today.

2. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of
Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge,
wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by
the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco.
Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura
and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 20.8N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 21.7N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 24.5N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 35.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/0600Z 37.6N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND LAURA MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA....


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 79.7 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
over the Caribbean Sea just offshore the southern coast of Cuba
today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Tuesday morning. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Jamaica and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas:
1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the
possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this
afternoon and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA....
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER JAMAICA, THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 80.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, and
Granma.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana,
Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 80.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continued through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of
the southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this
evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern
Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the
northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.

NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, but strengthening is
expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and
Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional
strengthening forecast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through today:

Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this
afternoon and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern and central Cuba, and the Bahamas. These swells
are expected to spread across western Cuba and the Florida Keys
today. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Laura's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since
yesterday, however, there has been a recent increase in convection
near the center, and a large band over the southern periphery of
the circulation. It appears that the combination of land
interaction, moderate northerly shear, and some dry air has
caused the change in structure. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft have reported several believable SFMR winds in the 45-50
kt range and a minimum pressure of around 1002 kt. Based on these
observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt.

Laura is forecast to pass over the very warm water of the extreme
northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of the coast of Cuba today,
and some modest strengthening is possible before the center moves
over the western portion of Cuba this evening. Laura is then
forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight
where a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and a favorable
upper-level environment are expected to allow for steady
strengthening. Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern
depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is
possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage
over western Cuba. The regional hurricane models remain quite
bullish on intensification, and the GFS and UKMET models indicate
significant deepening while Laura moves over the Gulf of Mexico. The
statistical guidance is not as aggressive, and the NHC forecast is
in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids which lie
between the higher solutions of the regional models and the SHIPS
and LGEM guidance.

Laura has been moving on a steady west-northwestward track over the
past day or so, and the initial motion estimate is 285/17 kt. The
deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build
westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so,
and this should keep Laura on a west-northwestward heading through
Tuesday. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the
south-central United States should produce a break in the ridge over
the western Gulf of Mexico. Laura should turn northwestward
Tuesday night in response to the break in the ridge, and the storm
is expected to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday night.
The cyclone should become embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies by day 4, and Laura or its remnants should recurve to
the northeast and east-northeast by the end of the period.
Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today,
there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET
showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC
track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba
today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and
these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and
urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry
Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today.

2. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts from the upper Texas coast through the north-
central Gulf Coast beginning on Wednesday. Interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Laura and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place, as storm surge and hurricane watches
will likely be issued later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 21.2N 80.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 22.2N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 25.2N 88.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 28.7N 92.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 36.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1200Z 37.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH....
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Port Bolivar, Texas, to
west of Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Port Bolivar to
San Luis Pass Texas and from Morgan City to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and
Las Tunas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 82.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will cross western Cuba this evening and move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to
move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night
and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane by late Tuesday.
Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations into tonight:

Western Jamaica, Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches,
with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this
heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday
and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast
by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible through tonight across
the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has improved
somewhat with deep convection remaining over the center, and an
increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the
circulation. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, however,
indicated that there has been little change in strength today, and
the initial intensity remains 50 kt. These observations have shown
the the stronger winds are located in the convective band well east
and southeast of the center, and that the system currently lacks
an inner core. This is likely the reason that Laura has not been
able to strengthen while it has moved over water today. The
aircraft also reported a fairly stable minimum pressure of 1001-1003
mb during its mission this morning and early afternoon.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous
advisory. Once Laura moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and low
vertical wind shear should allow for steady strengthening. The
latest iterations of the global and regional hurricane models
continue to show significant deepening while Laura traverses the
Gulf of Mexico, and a period or rapid strengthening is possible once
an inner core is able to organize. The statistical guidance is
again on the lower side of the intensity forecast envelope
while the HWRF and CTCI models bringing Laura to major hurricane
strength. The NHC intensity forecast is again between these
solutions and is close to the consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate is 290/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge over
the western Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next
day or so. By early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough over
the south-central United States is forecast to erode the western
portion of the ridge, which should cause Laura to turn northwestward
and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast. After
landfall, Laura or its remnants are expected to become embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies and recurve over the eastern U.S.
on days 4 and 5. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is
located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that
uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains. Users are again
reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or
intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 60 h is
around 90 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph.
In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend
far from the center.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of storm surge and
hurricane watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch has been issued for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.

4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across
central and western Cuba through tonight. These rains could cause
mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 21.7N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
LAURA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 82.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Ciego De Avila and Sancti Spiritus provinces.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque,
La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 82.8 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central
and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and
approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf
of Mexico, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane by late
Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday, and
Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the
coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the northeast and east of the center. A wind gust of
65 mph (105 km/h) was recently reported in Havana, Cuba.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations into tonight:

Western Jamaica, Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches,
with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this
heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday
and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast
by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible through tonight across
the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...LAURA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 84.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle Florida Keys has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque,
La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central
and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and
approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Laura is foreast to become a
hurricane on Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on
Wednesday, and Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it
approaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations into tonight:

Western Cuba: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches.
This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area
in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday
and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast
by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Tropical Storm Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province in
western Cuba around 0000 UTC with maximum winds of about 55 kt.
Around that time, a wind gust of 56 kt was reported in Havana.
Since then the storm has moved across western Cuba and is now
coming off the island and over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that
the storm has become better organized with deep convection
beginning to wrap around the center with persistent thunderstorms
on the south side. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate that the pressure has fallen to 996 mb and that
the winds are around 55 kt.

Laura continues to move fairly steadily to the west-northwest with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 290/17 kt. The track
forecast reasoning is generally unchanged from previous discussions.
Laura should continue to move west-northwestward at about the same
forward speed through Tuesday as it remains in the flow on the
southwest side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. By early
Wednesday, Laura will likely slow down and turn northwestward and
then northward as it moves into a break in the ridge, caused by a
weak trough over the south-central U.S. This motion should cause
the system to make landfall in either southwestern Louisiana or the
Upper Texas coast Wednesday night or early Thursday. After
landfall, Laura is forecast to continue moving northward before
turning eastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. Although the global models are in
relatively good agreement, there remains some spread in the ensemble
members, especially in the ECMWF. Therefore, confidence in the
track forecast is still not high. The NHC track forecast is
slightly to the left of the previous one, trending toward the
latest consensus aids.

The storm is starting to pull away from the western portion of Cuba,
and it should be over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters for about 2
days. Since Laura will have a notable amount of time over waters
with high oceanic heat while moving through a low wind shear and
high moisture air mass, significant strengthening seems quite likely
until the storm makes landfall. The intensity models all show Laura
making landfall as a hurricane, but there are differences on exactly
how strong it will be. The NHC intensity forecast continues to
stay near the consensus aids, which usually perform best, and
Laura could be near major hurricane strengthen when it reaches the
coast.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h
is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch is in effect. Additional hurricane watches may be needed
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.

4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across
central and western Cuba for several more hours. These rains could
cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 22.7N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 23.7N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 25.2N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 28.8N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 31.3N 93.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 33.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 36.7N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 36.9N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...
...ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCH AREA ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from South of Port Bolivar to San Luis
Pass has been changed to a Hurricane Watch.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from San Luis Pass to
Freeport Texas.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile
Bridge to Key West has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque,
La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to Freeport Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane Warnings will likely to issued later this morning or
afternoon for portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This
general motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Laura is then forecast to
move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts
on Wednesday night and move inland near those area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Laura is now expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations:

Rainfall will be coming to an end across western Cuba Tuesday
morning with additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches possible.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected for the Dry Tortugas for
a few more hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to
spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida
peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and
tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Satellite images show that Laura is becoming better organized. Now
that the center is clear from Cuba, very deep convection has
developed into a ragged, pulsing central dense overcast, with a
large curved band on the southern side of the circulation. The
intensity is kept at 55 kt, matching the satellite estimates and a
blend of the earlier flight-level and SFMR reconnaissance data.
Hurricane Hunter missions from both the Air Force and NOAA should be
in the storm within a couple hours to help obtain a new estimate.

After a westward jog earlier, Laura is estimated to be moving
west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists
over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a
weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough.
Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and
north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between
those two features, move northward late this week through the
southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the
eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable
distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough
over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly
due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC
prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of
model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast
expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments
could be required later today.

Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the
Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through
the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be
trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady
intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely
before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance
models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period
of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.
Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as
high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could
increase just before landfall.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h
is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2-to-3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from San
Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch is in effect. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for a
portion of that area later today.

4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding, along with
small streams overflowing their banks, will be increasing Wednesday
night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and
Arkansas. This will also lead to minor-to-isolated moderate river
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into
the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday and
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 22.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA NOW JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 86.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque,
La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to Freeport Texas
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings will likely be issued later
today for portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 86.4 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Laura is then forecast to
move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts
on Wednesday night and move inland near those area on Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations:

Rainfall will be coming to an end across western Cuba this morning
with additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches possible.

From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also expected for the Dry Tortugas for
a few more hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Wednesday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to the
Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port
Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to
Intracoastal City Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Sargent Texas to San Luis
Pass and from east of Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Freeport Texas to San Luis
Pass.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central
and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the
Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and
move inland near those area on Thursday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during
the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations:

Western Cuba...Additional totals of 1 inch or less.

United States...From Wednesday night into Saturday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf
Coast from western Louisiana into east Texas, and northward into
portions of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio
Valley, and Tennessee Valley. This rainfall will cause widespread
flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Laura has become a little better
organized since it crossed western Cuba, and it now has a central
dense overcast and some outer banding in the southern quadrant.
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
included SFMR winds of near 65 kt, 700-mb flight-level winds as high
as 77 kt, and a central pressure near 990 mb. Based on these data,
Laura has been upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of
65 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. The
hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge
over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break
in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and
the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic
pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward today followed by a
turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday
night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making
landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas
coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast
track before landfall has been nudged a little to the west of the
previous track in response to a westward nudge in the guidance.
However, it still lies a little east of the consensus models at the
time of landfall. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into
the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and
the mid-Atlantic States.

The hurricane currently looks a little ragged, with little or no
convection outside of the central dense overcast and the southern
quadrant banding. This may be due to dry air in the vicinity and
some light northerly shear. Conditions appear generally favorable
for strengthening during the next 36 h, and the new intensity
forecast calls for Laura to become a major hurricane during this
time. The global model are in good agreement that the hurricane
should encounter increasing shear in the last 12 h before landfall,
although the potential impacts on the landfall intensity are
unclear. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h
point. After that, some re-intensification is expected as the
storm becomes extratropical.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h
is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast at or
near major hurricane intensity Wednesday night. Do not focus on the
details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in
NHC's track and intensity predictions. Storm surge, wind, and
rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the
Gulf Coast.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge accompanied
by large and dangerous waves from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth
of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur
Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Storm Surge Warning is in
effect and residents should follow any advice given by local
officials. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion today, as water levels will begin to rise Wednesday.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday evening in the
area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday afternoon.

4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with
small streams overflowing their banks will be increasing Wednesday
night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and
Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into
the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday and
Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 23.7N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven