ATL: TEDDY - Models

[cycloneye]

* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952020 09/11/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 54 57 62 68 73 77 80 83 84
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 54 57 62 68 73 77 80 83 84
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 30 34 39 43 47 51 56 61 66 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 13 19 17 16 16 8 2 8 12 9 7 3 5 7 17 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 7 6 5 1 4 5 0 -2 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 98 89 78 66 62 78 101 26 309 340 336 349 312 333 289 292 282
SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 130 129 127 123 131 133 132 134 141 135 135 136 139 140 140
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 129 128 125 120 126 130 131 133 137 129 127 129 131 135 136
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 82 77 75 71 65 67 66 66 66 65 62 65 63 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 96 93 106 123 126 135 127 98 73 39 19 13 31 47 58 46 40
200 MB DIV 63 69 93 88 52 25 29 38 61 62 59 40 53 -13 -10 -10 26
700-850 TADV 12 7 0 -5 -7 -3 -2 -5 -9 -7 0 1 0 2 1 0 0
LAND (KM) 386 493 603 703 821 1008 1177 1368 1587 1807 1781 1775 1691 1582 1493 1392 1275
LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.8 12.0 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.2 24.3 26.3 28.0 29.8 31.9 34.2 36.3 37.8 38.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 10 11 11 9 6 5 6 5 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 7 5 3 9 10 6 8 14 13 13 14 16 15 18

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 27. 34. 37. 42. 48. 53. 57. 60. 63. 64.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 20.0

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 09/11/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.5% 18.9% 7.1% 1.7% 1.4% 4.9% 11.0% 18.2%
Bayesian: 0.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.0% 17.8%
Consensus: 1.3% 7.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.5% 1.9% 4.3% 12.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 09/11/2020 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 54 57 62 68 73 77 80 83 84
18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 30 37 45 52 55 60 66 71 75 78 81 82
12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 33 41 48 51 56 62 67 71 74 77 78
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[Cat5James]

00Z ICON heading WSW 102 hours out.

[toad strangler]

00Z ICON heading WSW 102 hours out.

00z ICON is a big fat Tuna Fish

[cheezyWXguy]

00Z ICON heading WSW 102 hours out.

00z ICON is a big fat Tuna Fish

Looks wonky to me. Gets pulled north into a building surface high by a wave that isn’t even closed.

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS still sends in the direction of the Caribbean




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[Hurricaneman]

GFS still sends in the direction of the Caribbean

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200911/70f3a7f59e3c03fa1a9c3461e1bb8827.jpg


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And a bit SW of the 18z and 4 mb weaker

[NDG]

GFS is still very persistent on a track towards the Islands, 6th run in a row, if not the 7th.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS did really well initializing the recent ASCAT data. and it only kept future sally slightly farther south.. RENE and Paullute more progressive and farther away through 72 hours. 4 run in a row for the GFS keeping that western LOBE.

[toad strangler]

00z GFS is a further SW with 95L through 126hrs and Paulette is significantly further NE as compared to 18z. Let's see how that effects this run.

[NDG]

GFS still sends in the direction of the Caribbean

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200911/70f3a7f59e3c03fa1a9c3461e1bb8827.jpg


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And a bit SW of the 18z and 4 mb weaker

You spoke too soon.

[Aric Dunn]

last 4 runs of the GFS.. Paullete is definitely much farther NE.

Sally is farther SW with no weakness yet.

[sma10]

Ukmet does not even develop 95L, at least does not develop the western lobe. And brings Rene soooo far to the SW that by end of run would be on track to threaten the NE Leewards

[Cat5James]

Shooting through the mona passage at 180 hours with ridge building back in to the north

[caneseddy]

CMC has nothing

[TheStormExpert]

This should miss Florida well to the East this run for sure on the 00z GFS, weakness open to its north.

[toad strangler]

00z GFS is going to re-curve 95L nicely and EAST of the Bahamas after the GA's

[Hurricaneman]

This should miss Florida well to the East this run for sure on the 00z GFS, weakness open to its north.

Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles

[TheStormExpert]

This should miss Florida well to the East this run for sure on the 00z GFS, weakness open to its north.

Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles

In late-September you’re more likely to have a trough sweep down than a ridge build overhead. Florida’s biggest threat could be from the Western Caribbean next month assuming something forms there.

[Hurricaneman]

This should miss Florida well to the East this run for sure on the 00z GFS, weakness open to its north.

Yep, but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot, let’s hope Paulette leaves a weakness so this doesn’t bother anyone on the mainland after the Antilles

In late-September you’re more likely to have a trough sweep down than a ridge build overhead. Florida’s biggest threat could be from the Western Caribbean next month assuming something forms there.

I usually look at the ensembles to see if there’s some agreement, half the 18z ensembles were west of the operational

[LarryWx]

CMC has nothing

I see it and it recurves sharply in the E Atlantic before weakening.

So, 0Z has overall had a pretty decent trend back away from a CONUS threat (though not necessarily a tuna since the GFS hits the NE Caribbean hard followed possibly by Bermuda) with a well OTS ICON, CMC, and UKMET and GFS recurving along 72W.

Let's see what the King and his men says later as well as the GEFS.

But the 0Z is only one run and It could easily shift back the other way on the next run(s). It really is amazing how many twists and turns there have been with 95L!