ATL: SALLY - Models

[Extratropical94]

Models for the Bahamas system only.

[GCANE]

Globals indicating spinup in the E GoM anywhere from Saturday afternoon to early Monday.

[GCANE]

GFS, Monday Morning.
Looks like a good LL vort under an ARWB.
Could spin up more than what current models are forecasting.
Short time frame, so high probability this setup is valid.
Watch the FL convection this weekend.
Could lead to some very rapid intensification in the E GoM if the PVS gets taken out early.

[NDG]

06z SHIPS brings it up to a hurricane, with a light shear & moist environment.

[Frank P]

06z 12km NAM
https://imgur.com/a/OcR4mmM

[NDG]

Both CMC and ICON still not developing this system, they are both lost doing a Fujiwhara between 96L and the vorticity in the GOM.
To some effect the Euro is also doing a Fujiwhara between the two systems, especially its ensembles.
Too bad NOAA is still having problems with its server and we can't see the HWRF run on 96L, it will be the only model to trust on intensity. IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Both CMC and ICON still not developing this system, they are both lost doing a Fujiwhara between 96L and the vorticity in the GOM.
To some effect the Euro is also doing a Fujiwhara between the two systems, especially its ensembles.
Too bad NOAA is still having problems with its server and we can't see the HWRF run on 96L, it will be the only model to trust on intensity. IMO.

NDG, I am getting a bad vibe with this aspect related to your point above. My weather senses are telling me in my gut that 96L is going to end up being a considerably stronger cyclone than what the globals have shown to this point.

I did notice early this morning up working and saw SHIPS having 96L becoming a hurricane down the road, not surprising given the very good low shear and very moist environment it is in currently.

[NDG]

06z Euro ensembles continue to show more support for development from previous runs with some now showing to become a moderate to strong TS, they also keep trending more offshore closer to the GFS runs than previous two runs, closer to the GFS runs.

[NDG]

12z SHIPS is still persistent with 96L becoming a hurricane before landfall, if anything a little stronger than previous 06z run with very light shear when it enters the GOM.

[N2FSU]

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[gatorcane]

Saved 12Z GFS animation:

[Ivanhater]

Cmc brings into Mobile

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[DestinHurricane]

HWRF run on 96L

[gatorcane]

Euro initialized:

[gatorcane]

Euro 24 hours:

[gatorcane]

Euro 48 hours:

[gatorcane]

Euro 72 hours much more defined:

[Ivanhater]

Euro playing catch up and strenghthening headed for the northern gulf coast

[toad strangler]

Solid chance of 96L becoming at least a depression over the peninsula.

[gatorcane]

Euro 96 hours crawling along the coast: