ATL: TEDDY - Models

[SFLcane]

See ya.. turns north. I feel much better today that this storm won’t be making a run at the conus,. Maybe the islands.

[ColdMiser123]

Euro is east of the 0z run, one significant change I'm seeing though is the evolution with Paulette. 0z had it caught underneath a ridge instead of kicked east, which prevented ridging from connecting as much over 95L later on. This run looks like it will be out of the picture.

[TheStormExpert]

There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

[SFLcane]

Euro is east of the 0z run, one significant change I'm seeing though is the evolution with Paulette. [b]0z had it caught underneath a ridge instead of kicked east, which prevented ridging from connecting as much over 95L later on. This run looks like it will be out of the picture.[/b]

It still recurved though. Just no ridging

[Fancy1001]

Euro significantly SW thru day 4

I don’t see what you’re saying (significantly SW). So far, it appears the 12Z Euro won’t throw us a curveball. Let’s see what the rest of the run has.

I think he meant it's significantly Southwest of the 12z run from yesterday, because that's the run that it compares it to when you press previous run on tropical tidbits since it does it in 24-hour intervals instead of 12.

[ElectricStorm]

There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

Laura?

[SconnieCane]

There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

Laura?

Laura didn't consolidate really well until past Cuba. He's talking storms that were named east of 50/perhaps 40W.

[Fancy1001]

There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

Laura?

Laura wasn't a long tracking storm. It didn't develop until it got into the Caribbean

[LarryWx]

There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

I consider Laura a CV/longtracking storm with it becoming a TD before 50W 4 days after coming off Africa. By that measure, many seasons have none (TD east of 50W) hit the CONUS.

It depends on one’s definition, of course:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteoro ... _track.png

[Aric Dunn]

Still too much interaction with Rene and the next system to its east..

waiting for the EPS.. and the next run..

[LarryWx]

Still too much interaction with Rene and the next system to its east..

waiting for the EPS.. and the next run..

At this point based on the model trends today and when considering the climo in mid Sept of TCs with a likely genesis in the MDR east of 40W, as a betting man I’d take the no CONUS hit bet laying odds as high as 3 to 1. That’s even taking La Niña climo into account. But I wouldn’t lay odds any higher right now due to just enough uncertainty still existing, especially considering the wild model consensus jumps of the last few days.

[blp]

Still too much interaction with Rene and the next system to its east..

waiting for the EPS.. and the next run..

I agree the problem now is the interaction with the system to the east which is closer. Still very uncertain forecast.

[Ubuntwo]

There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

Laura?

Laura wasn't a long tracking storm. It didn't develop until it got into the Caribbean

By that logic, neither did 2005. Shows the value of that metric.

[chris_fit]

Majority of the 12Z EPS are clustered around the Operational run - EAST/North and probably out to sea round 55W/60W

[msbee]

should I be nervous about this one?

[LarryWx]

Majority of the 12Z EPS are clustered around the Operational run - EAST/North and probably out to sea round 55W/60W

Yeah, whereas the 0Z EPS had ~1/4 of its members threatening the Caribbean and/or Bahamas/US, the 12Z has about half that doing the same or ~1/8 threatening those areas. So, now I can say that the entire 12Z suite of models is implying less of a threat to the Caribbean, CONUS, and Bahamas than before. But those areas are still far from getting the all clear at this very early stage, especially considering the other tropical features that increase unpredictability, the wild model swings that have occurred, it being La Niña, and with no LLC yet identified.

[Hurricane Mike]

There’s just not enough ridging this year for any Cape Verde long-tracking storms to hit the U.S. A contrast from the past five years.

I consider Laura a CV/longtracking storm with it becoming a TD before 50W 4 days after coming off Africa. By that measure, many seasons have none (TD east of 50W) hit the CONUS.

It depends on one’s definition, of course:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteoro ... _track.png

I for one hate when people do that. When I was a kid and teen, tracking hurricanes in the 1990s and 2000s, the tracks showed from Tropical Depression to dissipation. Now these maps show dots for when the system was an invest. I can't stand it. Erks me.

[gatorcane]

Definitely a turn at the end with 18Z guidance:

[otowntiger]

Majority of the 12Z EPS are clustered around the Operational run - EAST/North and probably out to sea round 55W/60W

Yeah, whereas the 0Z EPS had ~1/4 of its members threatening the Caribbean and/or Bahamas/US, the 12Z has about half that doing the same or ~1/8 threatening those areas. So, now I can say that the entire 12Z suite of models is implying less of a threat to the Caribbean, CONUS, and Bahamas than before. But those areas are still far from getting the all clear at this very early stage, especially considering the other tropical features that increase unpredictability, the wild model swings that have occurred, it being La Niña, and with no LLC yet identified.

. Agreed. Trends are certainly good today, but it is still way too early to rule anything in or out given the usual uncertainties for this range but even more so given the wild day to day swings we’ve witnessed in the models this year. Wild swings and inconsistency have been more prevalent than years past.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and ECMWF are in excellent agreement on where this storm is at one week out. Looks to be recurving well NE of the islands,