ATL: TEDDY - Models

[TheStormExpert]

When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.

This thread is about to become dormant.

[sma10]

:uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.

This thread is about to become dormant.

The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.

This thread is about to become dormant.

The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO

We will see what it’s like in a few days but there hasn’t been many times that the GFS and Euro are in agreement one week out. Doesn’t mean it can’t change but odds are favoring a recurve or fish storm.

[MJGarrison]

:uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.

This thread is about to become dormant.

It’s not necessarily true that a common outcome indicates high confidence. If both models have the same source of error, for example in this case, a Rene to week or too strong, that just means both models will switch toward a different common solution over time.

It’s also possible that two models can have similar solutions for different reasons. That would also erode confidence.

My comments here aren’t meant to say that I think 95L will go OTS or hit the islands.


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[cheezyWXguy]

Majority of the 12Z EPS are clustered around the Operational run - EAST/North and probably out to sea round 55W/60W

Yeah, whereas the 0Z EPS had ~1/4 of its members threatening the Caribbean and/or Bahamas/US, the 12Z has about half that doing the same or ~1/8 threatening those areas. So, now I can say that the entire 12Z suite of models is implying less of a threat to the Caribbean, CONUS, and Bahamas than before. But those areas are still far from getting the all clear at this very early stage, especially considering the other tropical features that increase unpredictability, the wild model swings that have occurred, it being La Niña, and with no LLC yet identified.

. Agreed. Trends are certainly good today, but it is still way too early to rule anything in or out given the usual uncertainties for this range but even more so given the wild day to day swings we’ve witnessed in the models this year. Wild swings and inconsistency have been more prevalent than years past.

Agreed. A couple days ago, it was a quick switch from practically nothing/ots to a Caribbean-bound major. The trends can easily change again this far out

[TheStormExpert]

They can change as they have multiple times already. But right now they seem to be locking in on a quick recurve. Haven’t seen anyone post the 12z EPS so they must not be too threatening.

[aspen]

We still need to wait for a closed circulation to form before making concrete conclusions, which, if the models are right, won’t happen for another two days. However, we can get a general idea of what will happen: 95L will continue mostly west before eventually recurving. Where the recurve takes place — either as far east as 50-55W or as far west as the Caribbean Sea — remains to be seen.

[cheezyWXguy]

They can change as they have multiple times already. But right now they seem to be locking in on a quick recurve. Haven’t seen anyone post the 12z EPS so they must not be too threatening.

The only thing they seem locked in about is that it’s moving west, strengthing, and bending wnw as it approaches the islands. When it turns, how far north it gets, and what the steering is after the wnw bend is still varying from run to run of each model

[sma10]

:uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.

This thread is about to become dormant.

The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO

We'll see. But i would feel exactly the same if they both had a 168hr bullseye right on top of PR .. not bloody likely

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.

This thread is about to become dormant.

I largely agree with you. However, instead of saying it "is about to go dormant", I'd rephrase it by saying there is about a 3 in 4 chance (in my mind) that it will become less active than it has been. That leaves about a 1 in 4 chance that it remains as active or gets more active depending on whether or not the threat rises from current rather low levels. Keep in mind that barely 24 hours ago it was looking much more ominous on the model consensus, which itself was a massive 24 hour change from 48 hours ago, when it was looking like well OTS. I realize we're getting closer and closer and that just getting closer reduces the chance for continued wild swings. Also, you know that I'm very much aware of climo saying OTS has a good bit higher chance overall, even in La Nina. But I fear that another wild swing or two could POSSIBLY still occur since the last wild swing has just occurred and that there is well above normal uncertainty due to the already existing other tropical features. Also, don't forget that La Nina climo is not as strongly in favor of OTS as non-Nina. And furthermore, there still is no well defined LLC yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.

This thread is about to become dormant.

The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO

We'll see. But i would feel exactly the same if they both had a 168hr bullseye right on top of PR .. not bloody likely

Yep. There’s a reason the NHC doesn’t do 10 day forecasts

[sma10]

The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO

We'll see. But i would feel exactly the same if they both had a 168hr bullseye right on top of PR .. not bloody likely

Yep. There’s a reason the NHC doesn’t do 10 day forecasts

... and why even the 4 and 5 day cone balloons way out into a large bubble

[Fancy1001]

So the faster the storm, the more likely we'll have a Caribbean cruiser.

[Spacecoast]

They can change as they have multiple times already. But right now they seem to be locking in on a quick recurve. Haven’t seen anyone post the 12z EPS so they must not be too threatening.

12z ECMF:

[sma10]

The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards

[TheStormExpert]

The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards

Alright throw that model out!

[sma10]

The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards

Alright throw that model out!

Ridiculous, right?

[TheStormExpert]

The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards

Alright throw that model out!

Ridiculous, right?

Well I mean the NHC now has Rene poised to slow down and turn sharply due west after three days.

[LarryWx]

The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards

Yeah, it has a very weak low further SW.

I'll remind folks that as recently as just 36 hours ago (0Z yesterday) that the model consensus was very ominous with even the EPS being scary enough for me to post Even just 24 hours ago, the GFS suite was still pretty ominous. So, although trends today have clearly been toward less danger, folks shouldn't count their chickens yet, especially with no center yet.

[sma10]

The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards

Alright throw that model out!

Ridiculous, right?

Should also mention .... taken verbatim, ICON at 120 hrs (Wed afternoon) has 7 (!) TC's potentially in the Atlantic. And that DOESN'T include Sally which has already made landfall:

Paulette spinning away in the N Atlantic
Rene moving SW towards the Leewards
Teddy recurving in the far Eastern Atlantic
Vicky in the w gulf on the Tex/Mex border
Wilfred approaching the Windwards
Alpha developing south of the CV islands
Beta home grown developing north of the Bahamas