ATL: TEDDY - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#181 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:59 pm

sma10 wrote:
sma10 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Alright throw that model out!
:Can:


Ridiculous, right? :lol:


Should also mention .... taken verbatim, ICON at 120 hrs (Wed afternoon) has 7 (!) TC's potentially in the Atlantic. And that DOESN'T include Sally which has already made landfall:

Paulette spinning away in the N Atlantic
Rene moving SW towards the Leewards
Teddy recurving in the far Eastern Atlantic
Vicky in the w gulf on the Tex/Mex border
Wilfred approaching the Windwards
Alpha developing south of the CV islands
Beta home grown developing north of the Bahamas

I think the CMC found a replacement for TC genesis happy!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#182 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:01 pm

sma10 wrote:
sma10 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Alright throw that model out!
:Can:


Ridiculous, right? :lol:


Should also mention .... taken verbatim, ICON at 120 hrs (Wed afternoon) has 7 (!) TC's potentially in the Atlantic. And that DOESN'T include Sally which has already made landfall:

Paulette spinning away in the N Atlantic
Rene moving SW towards the Leewards
Teddy recurving in the far Eastern Atlantic
Vicky in the w gulf on the Tex/Mex border
Wilfred approaching the Windwards
Alpha developing south of the CV islands
Beta home grown developing north of the Bahamas


At that rate, Hurricane Omega may be in reach.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#183 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:02 pm

So far in the gfs 18z, 95l is both weaker and slightly south of the 12z. Do you think this will allow it to head further into the Caribbean before heading NW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#184 Postby MJGarrison » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:19 pm

For me one of the most interesting things is that the split of the wave that created 95L (or maybe just the wave directly behind?) is still around and shown on multiple models. A few days ago people were dismissing this as an unlikely solution. I’m trying to imply that this solution will happen or not, but this piece of energy does interact and influence the track of 95L.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#185 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:22 pm

Evolution of 95L's path looks less complex this evening, but still many variables in its path.

Probably the strongest signal for a hurricane in the MDR we've had all year. I have my (admittedly cynical) doubts, but we'll see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#186 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:30 pm

18Z GEFS is at about the same threat to the CONUS as is the 12Z with 4 H landfalls out of 21 members (~20%):

- 2 S FL on 9/21
- 2 at/near FL Panhandle 9/26
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#187 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:47 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Evolution of 95L's path looks less complex this evening, but still many variables in its path.

Probably the strongest signal for a hurricane in the MDR we've had all year. I have my (admittedly cynical) doubts, but we'll see.

Well the 18z GFS did push back a little it’s RI period it seems. I have doubts too that this’ll get intense until it’s north of 20°N.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#188 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:24 pm

18Z GEFS saved loop from 72 to 240 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#189 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:07 pm

18Z GEFS ...0-144 hrs:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#190 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:13 pm

So why is their such a split in the camps for this system??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#191 Postby FireRat » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:30 am

Blinhart wrote:So why is their such a split in the camps for this system??


my thinking is that it may have to do with how strong Paulette gets and if she leaves a weakness behind that tugs 95L to the north more, while at the same time 95L gets strong enough for it to want to go poleward.

The other camp probably assumes a weaker and/or slower to develop 95L that heads more west and doesn't want to go north, and at the same time Paulette doesn't leave a weakness in its wake big enough to make 95L follow it.

It still is a fairly complex setup and we can easily end up with a big fish or a mean Teddy bearing down on the leewards/CONUS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#192 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:47 am

FireRat wrote:
Blinhart wrote:So why is their such a split in the camps for this system??


my thinking is that it may have to do with how strong Paulette gets and if she leaves a weakness behind that tugs 95L to the north more, while at the same time 95L gets strong enough for it to want to go poleward.

The other camp probably assumes a weaker and/or slower to develop 95L that heads more west and doesn't want to go north, and at the same time Paulette doesn't leave a weakness in its wake big enough to make 95L follow it.

It still is a fairly complex setup and we can easily end up with a big fish or a mean Teddy bearing down on the leewards/CONUS.


Another factor could be if 95L is slower to develop, it would more likely keep punching west, while a faster development would enter the weakness Paulette will create.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#193 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:12 am

00z Euro coming in significantly weaker through 72 hours. Had a feeling that was coming. We'll see if that has any implications in track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#194 Postby FireRat » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:36 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z Euro coming in significantly weaker through 72 hours. Had a feeling that was coming. We'll see if that has any implications in track.


Keeping with the trend of 2020, with the storms wanting to wait until they're further west to form! No bueno because this implies a more westward track and less chances of seeing a fish. Gonna be an interesting weekend watching this guy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#195 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:39 am

00z Euro drags the system due north and completely dissipates it.

No words. After run-after-run of showing a major hurricane recurving away from land, completely drops it right before genesis despite good agreement with every other major global model.

Euro might actually be the worst model at predicting TC genesis. NAVGEM is better.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#196 Postby FireRat » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:12 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:00z Euro drags the system due north and completely dissipates it.

No words. After run-after-run of showing a major hurricane recurving away from land, completely drops it right before genesis despite good agreement with every other major global model.

Euro might actually be the worst model at predicting TC genesis. NAVGEM is better.


:splat:
Wow haha, no words for real... damn :lol:

I guess the only thing "fishy" about this system is how the models are flip flopping like an actual fish out of water. We continue to wait and see the evolution of this system and its future path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#197 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:08 am

Wow After run after run of a major hurricane the GFS is MUCH weaker. So is the Euro :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#198 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:12 am

gatorcane wrote:After run after run of a major hurricane wow the GFS is MUCH weaker. So is the Euro :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/TY3W4mxG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh30-210.gif


Could be yet another issue of resolving when there are or will be multiple vortices so close to each other like we have seen before. Until one gets really going that's when they will have a better handle on the intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#199 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:17 am

NDG wrote:
gatorcane wrote:After run after run of a major hurricane wow the GFS is MUCH weaker. So is the Euro :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/TY3W4mxG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh30-210.gif


Could be yet another issue of resolving when there are or will be multiple vortices so close to each other like we have seen before. Until one gets really going that's when they will have a better handle on the intensity.


Yeah could be, hard to believe it doesn’t develop. The ensembles are pretty enthusiastic, saved loop:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#200 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:21 am

gatorcane wrote:Wow After run after run of a major hurricane the GFS is MUCH weaker. So is the Euro :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/TY3W4mxG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh30-210.gif

It also has a new wave that's even further South then 95L
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