ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[Buck]

Hopefully Paulette satisfies the ACElets

Nah, that's gonna be Teddy!

Starting to doubt this becomes a major.

Still has a lot of time at sea and she's proven to be persistent.

[Buck]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed a
peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25
miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye. The
central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970
mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85
kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from
Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic.
Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the
next 24 hours. At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will
commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude
shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes. Paulette
should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of
the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour
period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and
follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast
period.

The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt. Paulette will begin
accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn
east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early
Wednesday morning. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is
forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper
tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC
forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36
hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly
clustered deterministic and regional model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda
today, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this
afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 33.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Now officially forecast to get close to Category 4 intensity. At least she's moving away from Bermuda.

[ClarCari]

Nah, that's gonna be Teddy!

Starting to doubt this becomes a major.

Still has a lot of time at sea and she's proven to be persistent.

NHC agrees! Peak intensity guidance upped to 125MPH!

[plasticup]

Still getting gale force winds here in Bermuda. I don’t doubt that there are hurricane force winds elsewhere on the island.

That strengthening after the southern eyewall passed caught a lot of people off guard. Lots of people went out as the winds started to weaken but two hours later they came roaring back.

[Buck]

Still getting gale force winds here in Bermuda. I don’t doubt that there are hurricane force winds elsewhere on the island.

That strengthening after the southern eyewall passed caught a lot of people off guard. Lots of people went out as the winds started to weaken but two hours later they came roaring back.

Have you been there for past hurricanes? If so, how would you compare Paulette?

[plasticup]

Still getting gale force winds here in Bermuda. I don’t doubt that there are hurricane force winds elsewhere on the island.

That strengthening after the southern eyewall passed caught a lot of people off guard. Lots of people went out as the winds started to weaken but two hours later they came roaring back.

Have you been there for past hurricanes? If so, how would you compare Paulette?

Very little rain. Not as powerful as Humberto or Fabian. I wasn’t here for Fay/Gonzalo.

The eye lasted a full 3 hours. That was freaky. I’ve never seen something like that.

[JahJa]

Still getting gale force winds here in Bermuda. I don’t doubt that there are hurricane force winds elsewhere on the island.

That strengthening after the southern eyewall passed caught a lot of people off guard. Lots of people went out as the winds started to weaken but two hours later they came roaring back.

Have you been there for past hurricanes? If so, how would you compare Paulette?

I’ve been here for previous ones and I would say that these winds seemed to stay around for a lot longer. Even though it was a cat 1 i think it felt much more in line with what we experienced with Gonzalo in 2014!

The good news is that other than the vast majority of the island being without power there is no major damage that I’ve heard of so far. That being said the power going out is a given.....even with the slightest of tropical storms!

[Nimbus]

AF309 Mission #6 into PAULETTE was the latest recon mission?

[hurricaneCW]

Still getting gale force winds here in Bermuda. I don’t doubt that there are hurricane force winds elsewhere on the island.

That strengthening after the southern eyewall passed caught a lot of people off guard. Lots of people went out as the winds started to weaken but two hours later they came roaring back.

Have you been there for past hurricanes? If so, how would you compare Paulette?

Very little rain. Not as powerful as Humberto or Fabian. I wasn’t here for Fay/Gonzalo.

The eye lasted a full 3 hours. That was freaky. I’ve never seen something like that.

You may get another soon with Teddy.

Luckily Bermuda is one of safest places for a hurricane to hit. They're very well prepared, you'd need a strong Cat 4/5 to really do serious damage.

[plasticup]

Have you been there for past hurricanes? If so, how would you compare Paulette?

Very little rain. Not as powerful as Humberto or Fabian. I wasn’t here for Fay/Gonzalo.

The eye lasted a full 3 hours. That was freaky. I’ve never seen something like that.

You may get another soon with Teddy.

Luckily Bermuda is one of safest places for a hurricane to hit. They're very well prepared, you'd need a strong Cat 4/5 to really do serious damage.

Well Teddy may be that! This storm would be a good trial run though - everyone has a chance to refine their preparations and another weekend to finalize them.

[EquusStorm]

Ironically there is very recent precedent for two quick back to back Bermuda hits with the second being stronger, with Fay and Gonzalo six years ago; hopefully Teddy will be far less notable than Gonzalo was if it comes close.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Really getting her act together the last few frames

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

[Buck]

Now that Bermuda is close to being back in the sun... go on with yo bad self, Paulette... get nuts.

[aspen]

18z BT is up to 90 kt and 965 mbar. I think it might be a little stronger than that.

[aspen]

I would guess Paulette is around 95-105 kt and in the low 960s. If she keeps this up, she has a chance of becoming a Category 4.

[EquusStorm]

Regardless of dry air intrusions, with favorable trough interaction coming up Paulette is certainly a lock for major hurricane. Wasn't fully sure 24 hours ago but forecast looks to be right on track.

[Nuno]

https://i.imgur.com/23zCr9Q.png

Entire landmass (small as it is) surrounded by a hurricane, not something you see often.

Yet SE Florida hasn’t seen sustained hurricane winds in nearly 15 years! Talk about some strange luck at least for us.

Andrew, Katrina and Wilma are the only storms in the last 50 years to produce sustained hurricane force winds. Irma and Irene came close but alas did not. Pretty wild.

[aspen]

EWRC incoming. This might prevent Paulette from reaching major hurricane status.

[storminabox]

Can’t believe in a record breaking season such as this, it took our P storm to be our second Category 2+ hurricane.
This season is perfect to belong in the year 2020... it just doesn’t make sense.

Just lots of early weak activity. Lots of bursts of activity, however all the storms have had something to struggle with. Definitely not your typical season.

[storminabox]

EWRC incoming. This might prevent Paulette from reaching major hurricane status.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al17/amsusr89/2020al17_amsusr89_202009141618.gif

NO!!! Please Paulette you can do it! We're rooting for you. She still does have some time.