ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

This definitely has that "look". Almost looks like a developing WPAC typhoon with that banding.

[Do_For_Love]

He's on his way. Should be a fun one to watch blow up, no obstacles, and hopefully avoids causing anybody problems!

[Emmett_Brown]

Banding taking shape to create an almost eye like feature. Convection really filling in this morning. Teddy could be a monster. The short term motion continues to be slightly to the left of GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean tracks, but models insist on a safe recurve for now. Teddy seemed to be attached to the monsoon trough yesterday, which kept him on a general W track, but it looks like he has broken free, so a more NW motion will start today.

[aspen]

Teddy does not look like it’s gained much latitude. I sense yet another slight W shift to the forecast cone.

[aspen]

Eyewall is starting to develop, although it’s very large and ragged.

[aspen]

Best track is up to 55 kt/999 mbar, still at 13.8N. It’s developing a nice banding eye on visible satellite imagery.

[tiger_deF]

Pretty much all the models show it going full on NW right now, hopefully the relatively western heading is just a wobble

[gfsperpendicular]

Eye popping out. I'm no expert but it seems RI could be underway.

[shiny-pebble]

Teddy has the look of those massive deep tropics WPAC storms before they take off. Reminds me of Lorenzo last year.

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[TheStormExpert]

Teddy it’s your time to shine and become the 2nd major hurricane of the season, since Paulette and Sally don’t seem to want to.

[HuracanMaster]

Eye popping out. I'm no expert but it seems RI could be underway.

Center relocated a bit sw?

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[weeniepatrol]

Beautiful and WPAC-esque.

[EquusStorm]

Will be a nice consolation prize after Paulette's disappointment lol. Really taking off.

[AnnularCane]

Will be a nice consolation prize after Paulette's disappointment lol. Really taking off.

Hey, leave Paulie alone, she's kind of cool even if she doesn't become a major.

[TheStormExpert]

Will be a nice consolation prize after Paulette's disappointment lol. Really taking off.

I think smoke from the California wildfires making it all the way across the Northern Hemisphere is to thank for Paulettes failure of achieving major status. HOPEFULLY the same think won’t affect Teddy as I’m ready to see a major that harmlessly affects only the fishes.

Also on second look there’s quite a bit of mid-level dry air just to the west of Teddy.

[MJGarrison]

Will be a nice consolation prize after Paulette's disappointment lol. Really taking off.

I think smoke from the California wildfires making it all the way across the Northern Hemisphere is to thank for Paulettes failure of achieving major status. HOPEFULLY the same think won’t affect Teddy as I’m ready to see a major that harmlessly affects only the fishes.

This is interesting. Do you have a source or further reasoning for this?


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[TheStormExpert]

Will be a nice consolation prize after Paulette's disappointment lol. Really taking off.

I think smoke from the California wildfires making it all the way across the Northern Hemisphere is to thank for Paulettes failure of achieving major status. HOPEFULLY the same think won’t affect Teddy as I’m ready to see a major that harmlessly affects only the fishes.

This is interesting. Do you have a source or further reasoning for this?


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I just edited my post above with an image.

[tiger_deF]

It's way too early to be counting this as 100% a fish storm, at least in the short term he's been consistently south of his forecast track, and the interaction between teddy, every other system rolling around in the Atlantic, and the phase with the trough is very precise.

[AnnularCane]

I never thought smoke could affect a hurricane so much. Apparently even a nuclear bomb wouldn't break them up from what I've heard.

[cycloneye]

Great the news that the squadron will send a AF plane to fix Teddy on Thursday. I made the Teddy Recon Thread