ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Impressive.

[ElectricStorm]

Impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/zJwz1TC.png

This one has major written all over it

[HurricaneEnzo]

Teddy could be the one to quiet the MDR naysaers. With potential Wilfred right behind we might get a couple of nice long track strong MDR storms.

[aspen]

Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!

[Ubuntwo]

Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!

That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon

[SconnieCane]

Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!

That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon

That's important too, gotta see what the ridges and troughs are actually doing out there. Should help the models provide a better picture of where this thing will go.

[aspen]

Recon is actually heading out to Teddy right now!

That's an synoptic mission, not low level recon

Darn. At least there’ll be some on Thursday.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[aspen]

It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.

[CrazyC83]

TXNT21 KNES 151817
TCSNTL

A. 20L (TEDDY)

B. 15/1730Z

C. 14.1N

D. 47.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW YIELDS DT OF 3.5. MET IS 3.0 AND PT
IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/1642Z 14.0N 47.2W AMSR2


...MLEVINE

Looks closer to T4.0 to me. I'd go with 60 kt for the intensity.

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6

Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

[ElectricStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6

Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

3.0? I'm not that good at Dvorak but that seems a little low

[tiger_deF]

Teddy is continuing to trend SW of the official forecast track, definitely a North component but no turn in sight

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2020 Time : 185017 UTC
Lat : 14:21:09 N Lon : 47:31:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.3mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.6

Center Temp : -35.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

3.0? I'm not that good at Dvorak but that seems a little low

Yeah I think there is some underestimation going on here.

[northjaxpro]

[*]

It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.

This is correct. He is going just a hair slightly north of due west currently.in forward motion. They relocated his cenyer position southwest yesterday. We have to watch Teddy closely. This is not yet a sure bet it will stay harmlesss out to sea. A couple of models take him farther west. Also, we are seeing the eyewall developing quite well this afternoon. Teddy is well on its way to probably becoming the strongest N. Atlantic basin tropical cyclone to this juncture of the season.

[aspen]

[*]

It looks like Teddy is, once again, slightly SW of the forecast track. It is taking a lot longer to take a sharp turn than expected.

This is correct. He is going just a hair slightly north of due west currently.in forward motion. We have to watch Teddy closely. This is not yet a sure bet it will stay harmlesss out to sea. A couple of models take him farther west. Also, we are seeing the eyewall developing quite well this afternoon. Teddy is on its well on its way to probably becoming the strongest N. Atlantic basin tropical cyclone to this juncture of the season.

I hope it becomes a non-landfalling Cat 5 like Lorenzo (except without the ship-sinking). That’ll add another major to the list, give a massive ACE boost, and also give a boost to the Instantaneous Cyclone Energy of the season (it’s this instantaneous intensity measurement similar to ACE that I’ve been using for the past few years). The further west Teddy goes, the more 28-29C SSTs he’ll run into at 18-25N.

[us89]

...STEADY TEDDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

Steady Teddy! I like it.

[aspen]

The NHC mentions a good microwave structure that looks like that of a system getting ready to intensify, and I have to agree. This was from 5 hours ago.

[RL3AO]

The NHC mentions a good microwave structure that looks like that of a system getting ready to intensify, and I have to agree. This was from 5 hours ago.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al20/amsusr89/2020al20_amsusr89_202009151524.gif

Not sure that's gonna need 60 hours to become a major.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Should be a hurricane very shortly, if not one already.

I'll go out on a limb and say 125 knot peak.