ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:13 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 57.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 57.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or
west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday
through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Paulette's structure is going through a bit of an evolution as the
deep-layer shear backs from southwesterly to southeasterly. Most
of the deep convection had waned earlier this morning, but new
convection is beginning to develop near the center as the cyclone
reconstitutes itself. For now, the initial intensity remains 60
kt. An overnight AMSR microwave pass showed that Paulette has
well-defined low-level banding features, and this structure should
allow the cyclone to strengthen as vertical shear falls below 10 kt
during the next 12-24 hours. Strengthening is anticipated to
continue through day 3, and after that time, gradual weakening is
possible due to increasing southwesterly shear. The intensity
guidance has been fairly stable for the past few forecast cycles,
and no significant changes were required to this new NHC intensity
forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and just a bit above
the intensity consensus. Paulette is likely to be strengthening
while it makes its closest approach to Bermuda in about 48 hours,
and the GFS-based SHIPS and HWRF models each suggest that there is
a possibility of it becoming a major hurricane in 72 hours.

Paulette is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), with a break in the
subtropical ridge located due north of the storm. The ridge may
strengthen briefly over the next day or so, causing Paulette to
move west-northwestward for a short time, but it should resume the
northwestward motion by late Sunday. After that time, an
approaching longwave trough over the northeastern United States
will erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply
toward the north and then northeast between days 2 and 3. The
hurricane is then expected to accelerate east-northeastward toward
the north Atlantic on days 4 and 5, embedded within the
mid-latitude flow. The track guidance is well clustered and has
not shown any significant shifts over the past few forecast cycles.
Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning late Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning
has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda,
and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 57.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 57.8W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or
west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday
through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:00 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 58.5W
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 58.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or
west-northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous
hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to
Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to
6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Convective cloud tops have cooled again as deep convection has
redeveloped since this morning, with an eye-like feature noted in
visible satellite imagery. Since the storm is still being affected
by 20-25 kt of southerly shear, it is assumed that the low-level
center is still displaced to the south of this feature a bit. But
it won't be surprising if the low- and mid-level centers become
collocated soon as the shear drops significantly during the next
6-12 hours. The initial intensity remains 60 kt, and we should get
a much better handle on Paulette's maximum winds and structure once
the first Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reaches the storm this
evening.

The motion remains northwestward (305/13 kt) due to a break in the
subtropical ridge to the north-northeast of Paulette. A
mid-tropospheric high currently centered near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast is expected to slide eastward to the north of Paulette during
the next 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward tonight. Once the high becomes established over
the central Atlantic, Paulette is expected to recurve around its
western periphery toward a longwave trough over the northeastern
United States Sunday night through Monday night. On days 3 through
5 of the forecast period, Paulette should be accelerating
northeastward toward the north Atlantic, embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is embedded
among the very tightly clustered guidance envelope, and no
significant changes were made from the morning forecast.

As stated above, deep-layer shear is expected to be 10 kt or less
between 12 and 48 hours. While ocean waters are plenty warm at
28-29 degrees Celsius, the main possible limiting factor for
strengthening would be mid-level dry air, with the SHIPS model
diagnosing ambient relative humidities of 30-40 percent for the next
couple of days. But, if the shear remains low enough, that dry air
is unlikely to infiltrate the circulation, and Paulette is
therefore expected to intensify during the next 2-3 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, HCCA, and HWRF solutions,
showing a peak intensity just under the major hurricane threshold
in 2-3 days, when Paulette should be starting to move away from
Bermuda.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning
is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda,
and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 28.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING PAULETTE...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THAT COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 59.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda in about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 28.7 North, longitude 59.2 West. Paulette is moving toward
the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-northwest or
northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the
north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday,
followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. The Hurricane Hunter plane has not yet completed its pattern
and should provide more information about winds associated with
Paulette during the next couple of hours. The tropical storm is
forecast to strengthen and will likely become a hurricane tonight.
Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near
Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches)
based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to
Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to
6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:54 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 59.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.7 West. Paulette
is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches
Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is
possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from
Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday
night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical
storm strength Sunday afternoon or evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
Sunday through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes
through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane
reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR
winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured
adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple
center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981
mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65
kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season.

The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is
nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes
in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes
of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level
ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane
moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The
ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward
by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving
very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast
to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday.
The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance suite at all forecast hours.

Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear
that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly
decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early
Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air
environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air
in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all
of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will
be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and
early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for
another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from
Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle
of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the
latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday
and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 28.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 60.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 60.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected
to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight
and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when
Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday
through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 981 mb (28.97
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday
night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical
storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
today through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:19 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 60.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 60.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today
through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Over the past 6 hours, conventional and passive microwave satellite
data indicate that very little change to Paulette's overall
convective cloud pattern and inner-core structure has occurred.
A recent GMI pass indciated that the inner-core convection remains
somewhat disheveled due to a narrow but pronounced band of dry air
having penetrated the mid-levels of the cyclone. However, the
low-level eye feature remains intact with a diameter of at least 30
nmi. Given the little change in structure since the previous
reconnaissance mission, the intensity is being maintained at 65
kt. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be
investigating Paulette later this morning to provide a better
estimate of the hurricane's intensity.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/12 kt.
Overall, there is no significant change to the previous track
forecast or reasoning. The global and regional models are in
excellent agreement on Paulette passing over or near Bermuda during
the 24-36 hour period as the cyclone rounds a sharp east-to-west
oriented subtropical ridge located near and due east of Bermuda.
After passing Bermuda and moving north of the ridge in about 36
hours, Paulette is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of an
approaching deep-layer trough and associated surface cold front.
There is one important feature to mention -- the official forecast
track is west of the latest 0600 UTC interpolated models due to the
interpolated model tracks taking the center of Paulette at least 30
nmi east of Bermuda. In contrast, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are less
than 6 nmi apart at 12-48 hours, and that consensus brings the
hurricane across or just west of Bermuda in about 30 hours.
Therefore, the new NHC official track forecast is essentially just
an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies
just west of the tightly packed NHC guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions appear favorable to Paulette to strengthen
during the next 72 hours or so, with only occasional intrusions of
dry mid-level air briefly interrupting the intensification process.
The ragged inner core structure will likely delay intensification
this morning, but by the this afternoon and continuing into Monday,
the vertical shear is forecast by the global models to decrease to
near zero, which should allow for significant strengthening to
occur. In fact, it highly probable that Paulette will continue to
intensify as the hurricane passes over Bermuda. By 48 hours when the
hurricane is expected to be north of Bermuda, baroclinic
interaction with the aforementioned deep-layer trough is forecast
to aid in the intensification process with Paulette possibly
becoming a major hurricane around 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing
vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt should gradually weaken the
cyclone. It is possible that by 96 hours or so, Paulette could merge
with a frontal system and become a powerful extratropical low. For
now, however, Paulette is forecast to remain just ahead of the
front within the warm sector of a flat frontal wave. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is near
the upper end of intensity guidance throughout the 120-h forecast
period.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday
and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 29.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 30.2N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 34.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 35.9N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 37.8N 57.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 39.3N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 42.0N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 43.8N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:59 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 61.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...390 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 61.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late
tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible
when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late
Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today
through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:13 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...PAULETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THERE BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 61.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 61.9 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


WTNT42 KNHC 131450
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette this
morning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reduces
to around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time the
peak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraft
were only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested by
the flight-level values were not reaching the surface at that
location. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds in
the northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change to
the structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the system
a few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and is
a compromise of those two different peak values measured by the
aircraft.

Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion
over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the
eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep
convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore
it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon.
Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over
the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous
hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for
strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone
passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during
that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly
increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C
SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C.
The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to
the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models
suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an
extratropical cyclone. The only change to the NHC intensity
forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment
over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by
the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and
HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA.

Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a
mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the
cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn
north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the
periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone
is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude
flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on
in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once
the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC
forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h
and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track
model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster
than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus
track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions
should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds
arriving there overnight.

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today
and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto


BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...CORE OF PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA MONDAY MORNING...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THERE BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 62.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 62.6 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a
minimum central pressure of 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength by this evening, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:00 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY NEED TO BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 313 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda
this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.1 West. Paulette is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches
Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening
is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from
Bermuda late Monday through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda
late tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength within the next couple of hours, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Paulette has recovered from the dry air intrusion that was eroding
the eastern eyewall this morning. A ring of deep convection with
cloud tops ranging from about -50 to -65 C now completely surrounds
a partially cleared eye. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the hurricane earlier this afternoon measured peak
flight-level winds of 84 kt, which reduces to about 67 kt at the
surface. However, since that time there has been steady improvement
in the satellite presentation, and the latest Dvorak satellite
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are now at 4.5, supporting increasing
the initial intensity to 75 kt for this advisory.

Paulette is expected to remain in a low-shear environment over warm
SSTs for the next 24-36 h, so gradual strengthening is likely during
that time. Around 48 h from now, vertical wind shear is forecast to
rapidly increase ahead of an approaching mid- upper level trough.
This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 72 h, Paulette
is expected to be over waters less that 26 degrees C and should
remain over cooler waters for the remainder of the forecast period.
Around that same time, global models are indicating that the cyclone
will begin to interact with a frontal boundary associated with the
aforementioned trough. This should induce a gradual transition of
Paulette to an extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be
completed by 120 h, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast
is little changed from the previous one and shows Paulette
continuing to strengthen as it passes near or over Bermuda early
Monday. The forecast also shows Paulette becoming a major hurricane
by Monday night, after the cyclone has moved away from Bermuda. This
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected
consensus, HCCA.

Paulette is moving northwestward at 11 kt, to the southwest of a
mid-level ridge. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning.
This northwest motion should continue until just after the cyclone
passes Bermuda Monday morning. Later on Monday, the hurricane should
turn north, then northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the
ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to
accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of
the approaching trough. Later on in the forecast period a slower
eastward motion is indicated once the trough bypasses the cyclone.
The latest NHC forecast was nudged only slightly to the left of the
previous one, and is in agreement with tightly clustered global and
regional track guidance. Tropical storm conditions should reach
Bermuda in the next couple of hours, with hurricane force winds
arriving there overnight.

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today
and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 30.6N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto


BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...RAIN BANDS OF PAULETTE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA...
...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 63.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft and Bermuda radar near latitude
30.9 North, longitude 63.6 West. Paulette is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda early
Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Multiple observing stations on Bermuda have reported
tropical-storm-force wind gusts during the past hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
plane is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and
winds will steadily increase through the evening. Hurricane
conditions are expected to first reach Bermuda late tonight and
will continue into Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:06 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...EYE AND EYEWALL OF PAULETTE NEARING BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is
forecast to continue moving northwestward overnight and then turn
northward on Monday. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected late Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track the
eye of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda early Monday morning.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda
overnight and early Monday. Additional strengthening is likely when
Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday
through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the past
few hours and will continue to increase during the next few hours.
An unofficial observing station at Cedarvale South recently reported
a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). An automated station at Cresent
reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and another station at
Pearl Island reported a gust of 70 mph (112 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
hurricane hunter plane is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and
winds will steadily increase tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected to first reach Bermuda overnight and will continue into
Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The eye of Paulette is steadily nearing Bermuda. Although it has
appeared slightly ragged at times in IR imagery, radar imagery from
Bermuda and the NOAA P3 show that the eye and eyewall of Paulette
are very well defined in all quadrants but the southwest. The NOAA
hurricane hunter plane measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt
(which adjust to 80 kt at the surface) and SFMR winds of 70 kt.
Taking an average of those supports the initial intensity of 75 kt.
The minimum pressure measured by the NOAA aircraft in its last pass
through the eye was 976 mb.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for Paulette are very
similar to the last advisory. Given its improved structure over the
past day or so and its favorable upper-air environment, some
additional strengthening appears likely as Paulette approaches
Bermuda during the next few hours. Further intensification is
possible after the hurricane accelerates northeastward away from
Bermuda and Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane
strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is
expected as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins
to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is
generally just above the intensity consensus but is within the
tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast is quite high and the models are in
excellent agreement on Paulette's future for the next few days. The
hurricane will approach Bermuda and turn northward tomorrow, then
accelerate northeastward through the middle of the week. A slower
eastward or even southeastward motion is possible by Friday when a
large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over the eastern Atlantic is
forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will approach Bermuda early Monday and
hurricane conditions are expected to begin on the island within the
next few hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into Monday afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 31.4N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#30 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:10 am

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1200 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING STEADILY CLOSER TO BERMUDA...
...SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...

An automated station at The Crescent recently reported a
sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph (104
km/h), and another station at Pearl Island reported a sustained
wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

Hourly position estimates will be provided until Paulette
makes landfall.

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM AST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 64.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
APPROACHING BERMUDA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND BERMUDA RADAR DATA
SHOW PAULETTE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...

An observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently
reported a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust to 86 mph
(138 km/h), and another station at Pearl Island reported a sustained
wind of 57 mph (91 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph 111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 64.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE MOVING ONSHORE BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS RAKING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 64.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bermuda radar
near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is forecast to
continue moving northwestward this morning and then turn northward
by this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected
this afternoon through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Paulette will pass over Bermuda within the next few hours.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda this
morning and continuing into the afternoon. Additional strengthening
is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from
Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the
past few hours and will continue to increase this morning. An
observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently
reported a wind gust to 96 mph (155 km/h). A weather observing
station at Pearl Island reported a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h)
while a reporting station at the Bermuda Heliport measured a wind
gust to 72 mph (116 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
hurricane hunter plane is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and
winds will steadily increase this morning. Hurricane conditions are
expected to each Bermuda during the next 2 to 3 hours and will
continue into early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE RAKING BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...

Internet communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
disrupted due to a possible island-wide power outage. Only cell
phone service is available.

The L.F. Wade International Airport observing system recently
measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (102 km/h) and a gust to 89 mph
(143 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 64.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
400 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...MUCH OF BERMUDA NOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PAULETTE'S EYE...
...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...

An island-wide power outage has resulted in more than 20,000
customers losing electrical service.

Reports from the Bermuda Weather Service indicate that a gust
to 117 mph (189 km/h) was measured at the Marine Operations Center
(MAROPS), which is elevated at 290 ft above sea level.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM AST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 64.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#31 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:11 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...ENTIRE ISLAND OF BERMUDA INSIDE HURRICANE PAULETTE'S EYE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHORTLY DUE TO PAULETTE'S SOUTHERN EYEWALL...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 64.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude
32.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should
continue early this morning. A turn toward the north is expected by
late morning and continue into this afternoon. A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening and continue
through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Paulette will
continue to pass over Bermuda during the next couple of hours,
followed by passage of the southern portion of the eyewall.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). Although winds have subsided across much of Bermuda due
to Paulette's eye passage, hurricane-force winds will return
shortly when the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall passes over
the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into
the early afternoon across the entire island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations on Bermuda is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Although most of Bermuda is currently inside Paulette's eye
where much weaker winds exist, hurricane conditions will return to
Bermuda from the south and southwest when the southern eyewall
passes over the island in a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions
should subside around mid-morning, but tropical storm conditions
will persist into late-morning and possibly early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

The large, 35-40-mile-wide eye of Paulette is located over
northeastern Bermuda, and nearly the entire island is inside the
eye. The last Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission measured
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant
where data from satellites and the Bermuda radar (the radar is still
functioning) indicate a large burst of deep convection has developed
and persisted in that part of the eyewall, likely bringing down much
of those winds to the surface. Using a standard 90-percent
adjustment factor yields a surface wind estimate near 80 kt, and
that is the intensity used for this advisory. The last reported
pressure by the aircraft was 973 mb, which has been confirmed by
surface observations from Bermuda.

The initial motion estimate is 345/10 kt. The track, intensity, and
wind radii forecasts remain essentially unchanged since all of the
latest NHC guidance appears to be tightly dialed in on Paulette's
future. Additional strengthening appears likely after Paulette moves
away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North
Atlantic. Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane
strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is
forecast as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins
to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is
remains just above the intensity consensus, but is within the
tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast also remains high, and the latest
track guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track.
Paulette will move northward away from Bermuda today, followed by a
turn toward the northeast by tonight and on Tuesday. A slower
eastward to southeastward motion is expected by Friday when a large
mid-tropospheric cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast
to begin influencing Paulette's track.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda
this morning, with hurricane conditions returning within a couple
of hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and
very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 32.3N 64.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 40.9N 51.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 43.4N 45.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 45.3N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 45.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 41.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#32 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:13 am

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
600 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...ALL OF BERMUDA STILL IN THE EYE OF PAULETTE...
...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL SOON AFFECT
BERMUDA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...

The eye of Paulette will move north-northwestward to northward this
morning, bringing the southern portion of the eyewall with
hurricane-force winds and torrential across the entire island of
Bermuda very soon.

All persons are urged to not venture outside until the storm passes
this afternoon as winds will increase suddenly from the southwest.

SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 64.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
700 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA...
...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS AFFECTING BERMUDA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...

The eye of Paulette just barely north-northwest of the island of
Bermuda. The southern portion of the eyewall with hurricane-force
winds and torrential rains currently spreading over the island.

All persons are urged to not venture outside until the storm passes
this afternoon as winds will increase suddenly from the southwest.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN EYEWALL AFFECTING THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 64.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.9
North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster
motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and
should continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Hurricane-force winds are returning as the southern
portion of Paulette's eyewall continues to move over the island.
Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early
afternoon across the entire island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on hurricane
hunter aircraft and surface observations on Bermuda is 970 mb
(28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south
and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon.
Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but
tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and
possibly early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

The final Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued at 900 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA...
...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TORRENTIAL RAINS
STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA...

The southern portion of the eyewall is currently spreading over the
island of Bermuda with hurricane-force winds and torrential rains.

A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda, recently reported a
sustained wind of 65 mph (105 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 65.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

This is the last hourly position update issued on Hurricane
Paulette.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#33 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:14 am

Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 64.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
on Bermuda in the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 64.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into this afternoon. A turn toward
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night
through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening through Tuesday night is likely
as Paultette acclerates northeastward to east-northeastward.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda recently
reported a sustained wind of 80 mph (130 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph
(170 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should persist into
the mid afternoon hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed a
peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25
miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye. The
central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970
mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85
kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from
Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic.
Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the
next 24 hours. At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will
commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude
shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes. Paulette
should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of
the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour
period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and
follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast
period.

The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt. Paulette will begin
accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn
east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early
Wednesday morning. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is
forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper
tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC
forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36
hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly
clustered deterministic and regional model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda
today, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this
afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 33.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...PAULETTE STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Warning
for Bermuda with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring in the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving
toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into the early evening hours. A turn toward
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (170 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through
Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-
northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions on Bermuda should persist into the
mid to late afternoon hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 63.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Paulette is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday
afternonn through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as
Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-northeastward. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda should persist into the evening
hours.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and associated coastal flooding and rough
surf conditions on Bermuda should begin to subside this evening.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
this evening, with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Overall, Paulette's satellite presentation has improved during the
past several hours. In fact, a 1743 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass
showed a developing concentric eyewall cloud pattern with a fully
enclosed eyewall and a larger outer convective ring that was nearly
closed off. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective T-number of 94 kt and
the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields
an initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from
Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic.
Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the
next 12-24 hours. On Wednesday, weakening is expected to begin
as the cyclone traverses a sharp gradient of decreasing (less
than 23C) oceanic temperatures. Around the same time, the
deterministic models are indicating that the cyclone will begin to
interact with a baroclinic boundary associated with major shortwave
trough. Paulette should begin to lose its tropical characteristics
at that time and complete an extratropical cyclone transition in 3
days. The ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the transition
completed in 48 hours, which is also a possibility.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or
030/13 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by
Tuesday morning, and then turn east-northeastward with a further
increase in forward speed by Tuesday night. A slower southeastward
motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper
tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC
forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is
very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and lies
down the middle of the tightly clustered various interpolated
deterministic aids.

The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were
adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1232 UTC scatterometer passes.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 34.5N 63.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 36.1N 61.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 40.8N 51.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 43.3N 44.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 46.6N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z 44.3N 32.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#34 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:17 am

Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...PAULETTE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected for the next
couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn
eastward by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is possible Tuesday and early Wednesday. Rapid
weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and will likely
continue through the rest of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions
of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of
the United States through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Paulette's cloud pattern has degraded during the past few hours, and
recent microwave imagery suggests that the eyewall of the hurricane
was at least for a time open to the south. A larger mostly closed
ring of convection was also present, indicating that Paulette may be
going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite-based current
intensity estimates range from 65 to 102 kt, but have generally
decreased since the last advisory. The intensity estimate remains 90
kt at this time, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in this
assessment.

Assuming Paulette can maintain a well-defined inner core, either
through the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle or
redevelopment of convection in the southern eyewall, it should have
an opportunity to strengthen during the next 24 h. The intensity
guidance is not quite as bullish anymore, so the intensity forecast
has been lowered slightly, but it is still above the intensity
consensus through 36 h. Paulette could begin to lose tropical
characteristics around that time and rapid weakening is expected as
a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Paulette becoming
fully post-tropical in 72 h, but there are indications from the GFS
simulated satellite imagery that it could complete its transition
sooner.

Paulette has turned northeastward and is accelerating, as
predicted, with an initial motion estimate of 35/15 kt. The system
will likely race generally east-northeastward for the next few
days. A slower motion and eventual turn southeastward or even
southward is expected near the end of the week when the cyclone
encounters a large cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic, however
it should be post-tropical by that time. The track guidance remains
in excellent overall agreement overall, and NHC forecast is based
heavily on TVCN and HCCA.

The wind radii analysis and forecast were updated based on data
from an ASCAT-A overpass at 0050 UTC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 35.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...PAULETTE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next
couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn
southeastward by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions
of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of
the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Paulette has generally changed little overnight. The hurricane
still has a central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally
evident in satellite images. Convective banding remains well
organized, especially to the north of the center. The satellite
intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt and based on that data,
the initial intensity is again held at 90 kt.

The hurricane could strengthen slightly in the short term due to a
combination of baroclinic influences from an approaching trough and
relatively warm water beneath the cyclone. However, a steady
weakening trend should commence on Wednesday when Paulette moves
over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind
shear. These factors should ultimately lead to extratropical
transition, which is forecast to be complete by day 3. However,
some of the guidance suggests that this could occur up to a day
sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is near a blend of
the HCCA, IVCN, and GFS models.

Paulette continues to pick up speed, and the latest initial motion
estimate is northeastward at 17 kt. The hurricane is expected to
accelerate northeastward even more during the next couple of days
as it becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After
a few days, however, Paulette will likely turn southeastward and
then southward as it moves in the flow on the west side of a cut
off deep-layer low. There are some differences in the models on
how sharply Paulette turns southward, but they generally agree on
the overall scenario. The NHC track forecast lies roughly between
the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 37.0N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#35 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:19 am

Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...PAULETTE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD AT AN EVEN FASTER PACE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 57.9W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 57.9 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A faster motion
toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday. Afterward,
Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east-southeast
and south-southeast late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone
undergoes extratropical transition. Paulette should complete its
transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions
of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of
the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural
changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic
zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water
vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into
the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette's
rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system,
while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments
of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial
intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by
the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical
characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity
to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface
temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water
temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes
more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a
result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its
extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an
agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical
guidance.

The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of
circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and
therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be
northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate
further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward
the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east-
southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the
western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low
to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little
faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the
HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the
GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 38.3N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...PAULETTE WEAKENS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 55.0W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this
general motion with a further increase in speed is expected through
Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn
toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin on
Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition and
moves over much cooler water. Paulette should complete its
transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect
Bermuda and portions of the east coast of the United States into
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Another fortuitous AMSR2 microwave pass over the cyclone showed the
outer concentric ring open over the south semicircle and a more
noticeable vertical tilt. Furthermore, the cloud tops associated
with the deep convection in the north quadrant have warmed during
the past several hours. Consequently, the initial intensity is
lowered to 85 kt and is in best agreement with the subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.

Paulette continues to lose its tropical characteristics as it
mingles with the rapidly approaching baroclinic zone from the
northwest. In fact, earlier successive METOP A and B scatterometer
passes on Paulette revealed that the northwest quadrant 34-kt wind
radii had nearly doubled in size due to the aforementioned invading
frontal zone moving out of the Canadian Maritimes. The sea surface
temperatures quickly decrease to less than 20C within 24 hours as
Paulette accelerates east-northeastward. As a result, the cyclone
should weaken rather quickly and complete its extratropical
transition on Thursday, as indicated in the global models and the
statistical-dynamical guidance.

Paulette is moving east-northeastward, or 060/26 kt, and this motion
should continue with a further increase in forward speed through
Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn
south-southeastward to southward as it moves within the western
peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the
east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is basically an update
of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus
guidance.

The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were
adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1110 UTC and 1424 UTC
scatterometer passes.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 39.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 41.4N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 44.0N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 45.8N 36.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z 45.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0600Z 43.9N 32.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1800Z 41.2N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1800Z 38.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z 34.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#36 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:21 am

Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 52.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this
general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette
is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and
south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is
expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Paulette is gradually losing tropical characteristics.
Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the
low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main area
of deep convection and that the hurricane is starting to get
tangled up with a nearby baroclinic zone. A recent ASCAT-B
overpass showed maximum winds in the 75-80 kt range in the
southwestern quadrant. It is quite impressive to see such high
values from that instrument given that ASCAT usually can't resolve
the maximum winds in hurricanes. The initial intensity is
therefore held at 85 kt.

Since Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into
an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, weakening is
expected. Paulette is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
in about 24 hours when it will likely merge with the nearby front
and move over SSTs of about 20 C. There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an
update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity
consensus models and the GFS.

The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 24 kt.
A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude
westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that,
Post-tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn
southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a
deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar
to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus
models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are 52 feet. Swells from the hurricane have spread far
away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada,
Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 40.7N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 42.6N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 44.7N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 45.7N 36.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z 44.8N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/1200Z 42.4N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z 40.1N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z 36.8N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0000Z 34.4N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#37 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:55 am

Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 49.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this
general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette
is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and
south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is
expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Paulette is looking less and less tropical by the hour.
Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the
low-level center is exposed to the south of the main area of deep
convection. The hurricane is also very near a baroclinic zone and
stable air is wrapping into the southern half of the circulation.
An earlier ASCAT pass showed peak winds close to 80 kt, and since
that instrument can't resolve peak winds in a hurricane, the initial
intensity remains 85 kt near the high end of the satellite intensity
estimates.

Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into
an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, therefore,
weakening is expected. The hurricane is forecast to become an
extratropical cyclone later today as it moves over SSTs of around
20C and gets tangled up with a nearby front. Although not
explicitly forecast, there is a chance that Paulette could regain
tropical or subtropical characteristics late this weekend or early
next week when it moves southward back over warmer waters.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous
one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS.

The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 25 kt.
A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude
westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that,
Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn
southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a
deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar
to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus
models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are 51 feet. Swells from Paulette have spread far
away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada,
Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 41.9N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 43.9N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0600Z 45.5N 38.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1800Z 45.6N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0600Z 43.8N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/1800Z 41.1N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0600Z 38.5N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0600Z 35.3N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 33.5N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:01 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...PAULETTE BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.3N 45.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette was located near latitude 43.3 North, longitude 45.2 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected through
Thursday. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn
toward the southeast and south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery
show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone
extending over the north-central Atlantic. Deep convection just to
the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave
images has dissipated. Therefore, the system is now classified as
extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial
intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC
scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON
analysis of 64 kt.

The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models
and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not
specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette
could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this
week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer
oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for
inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary.

The post-tropical cyclone's initial motion is east-northeastward,
or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this
general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer
mid-latitude flow. By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is
expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it
moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the
cyclone. The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and
TVCA consensus aids.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are up to 50 feet. Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 43.3N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 25.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through Tuesday night. A much slower
eastward or east-southeastward motion is expected by late Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday.
Gradual weakening should begin by late Tuesday and continue through
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

Deep convection associated with the post-tropical remnants of
Paulette that moved southward to the southwest of the Azores over
the past few days has become better organized over the past 6-12
hours. An ASCAT over pass from a few hours ago indicate that
increase in convective organization has result in strengthening and
the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone once again.
The ASCAT revealed peak winds of just over 45 kt, and given that
instruments typical undersampling, the initial intensity is set at
50 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated a small radius of
maximum winds of about 30 n mi, therefore the system is being
classified as a tropical cyclone rather than subtropical.

Paulette is moving east-northeastward or 075/14 kt. The tropical
storm should continue moving east-northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough dropping southeastward over the northeastern
Atlantic, and the global models are in reasonably good agreement
through 24-36 hours. After that time, there is significant
bifurcation in the track guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON all
taking a stronger Paulette faster east-northeastward over the
eastern Atlantic, while the UKMET and ECMWF show a weaker cyclone
slowing down and turning west-southwestward in the low-level
steering flow late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast
shows Paulette slowing down and turning southward, and then
southwestward between 48-96 h, but it's not nearly as far west as
the UKMET and ECMWF models. Given the large spread in the track
guidance at that time period, the NHC forecast is near the HFIP
corrected consensus.

Paulette is already over marginal SSTs and cooler waters
lie ahead along the forecast track. This, along with moderate
vertical wind shear should result in gradual weakening beginning on
Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Paulette to weaken
to a tropical depression in 48-60 h, and become a remnant low
shortly thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 33.9N 25.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 34.4N 22.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 34.7N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 35.1N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 35.3N 16.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 34.7N 16.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 34.0N 16.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z 33.1N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:04 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE WEAKENS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 22.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 22.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h). An east to
east-northeast motion is expected through Wednesday. A slowing of
forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are
expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion
is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low within the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto




Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette
dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of
low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30
degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep
convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone's center and appears
to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT
overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial
advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong
vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected
to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to
become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not
return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a
remnant low by as early as this evening.

Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains
embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The
trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a
ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This
evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and
make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By
late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving
west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of
the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough
and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but
is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model
solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 35.0N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 35.2N 20.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 35.6N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 35.9N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 35.6N 15.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z 34.9N 15.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 33.9N 18.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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