ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8821
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#261 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:58 am

Teddy is an absolutely.huge beast of a storm in the making. There is no telling how strong he will eventually become. This will be the strongest cyclone of the seasòn in the N. ATL basin in all likelihood of this incredibly crazy 2020 season.
5 likes   
Monitoring the 2020 Meteorological Fall Season and North Atlantic Hurricane Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2968
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#262 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:33 am

Microwave pass from several hours ago shows a storm, nearly complete eyewall. This will likely be a major this afternoon.
Image
9 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Ryxn
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 119
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#263 Postby Ryxn » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:41 am

The triangle Paulette, Sally, and Teddy form is like the greater Bermuda triangle as Bermuda is practically smack dab in the center of all of the storms after literally being in the direct center of Paulette's eye recently and with Teddy threatening it as well. What a crazy time for Bemuda. Craziest since Fay and Gonzalo of 2014. :eek:
Last edited by Ryxn on Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1631
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda (temporarily in NE US)

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#264 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:49 am

If I had to guess based on visual satellite, this would be a 105-110kt cat 3.

Image
9 likes   
Florence 2006, Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2968
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#265 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:53 am

Looking very good on visible. However, the 12z best track actually went down to 80 kt for some reason.
Image
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

SconnieCane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#266 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:53 am

Kazmit wrote:If I had to guess based on visual satellite, this would be a 105-110kt cat 3.

https://i.imgur.com/QvbLwUw.png


Has that spiral-galaxy look reminiscent of Irma and similar long-lived, powerful hurricanes in their early (pre-sustained stadium eye) phases.
3 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1631
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda (temporarily in NE US)

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#267 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:55 am

It already looks like a fairly large storm on visuals, but it's going to be huge after some ERCs.

Image
2 likes   
Florence 2006, Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121181
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#268 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:57 am

Down to 80kts.

20L TEDDY 200916 1200 16.1N 49.3W ATL 80 978
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#269 Postby Jr0d » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:57 am

Good to see Teddy gaining latitude, still.might be a problem for Bermuda though.

I did notice the GFS now has Teddy forecast to turn back west in 3-4 days before getting picked up by a trough in about 6 days.

All the models are in good agreement that Teddy will recurve in about a week.
0 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4400
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: GA/TN

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#270 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:00 am

cycloneye wrote:Down to 80kts.

20L TEDDY 200916 1200 16.1N 49.3W ATL 80 978


I don't see any signs of weakening. The only reason I can think of is that they went too high in the previous advisory.

Image
7 likes   

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 756
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#271 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:19 am

cycloneye wrote:Down to 80kts.

20L TEDDY 200916 1200 16.1N 49.3W ATL 80 978

Hmm maybe they meant to put 90? Idk
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2968
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#272 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:56 am

The eyewall is still open to the west. I guess Teddy might’ve invested some dry air and won’t continue intensification until it mixes it out, which could be a good thing. That could time a second start of RI with the arrival of Dmax, and it raises the likelihood that recon will arrive to an intensifying major when they head out tomorrow.
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
wx98
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 860
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#273 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:56 am

Intensification has stalled due to an apparent increase in shear:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
0 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4400
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: GA/TN

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#274 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:11 pm

There has been some westerly shear affecting Teddy but obviously it's not enough to weaken the system.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2968
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#275 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:14 pm

supercane4867 wrote:There has been some westerly shear affecting Teddy but obviously it's not enough to weaken the system.

https://i.imgur.com/PF0ukAX.gif

I hope it lessens so tomorrow we get a recon flight in a RI major that isn’t immediately threatening any land areas.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

tomatkins
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 127
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#276 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:17 pm

Kazmit wrote:It already looks like a fairly large storm on visuals, but it's going to be huge after some ERCs.

https://i.imgur.com/2nw0yGY.png

Love this shot - three hurricanes, plus vicky getting sheered by the outflow off Teddy, and you can even see the remnants of Rene as an area of enhanced cloudiness northwest of Teddy.
4 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2968
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#277 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:46 pm

Still looking pretty good on visible, despite today's organizational hiccups. I'd say it's still around 85 kt.
Image
6 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121181
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#278 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:03 pm

No change.

20L TEDDY 200916 1800 17.1N 50.4W ATL 85 973
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4400
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: GA/TN

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#279 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:01 pm

18z microwave shows eyewall still opens to the SW.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2968
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#280 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:03 pm

supercane4867 wrote:18z microwave shows eyewall still opens to the SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tWLU3yz.jpg

It’s a lot better than before, though. It looks like that band to the SW is merging with the eyewall, or it could act as a shield to keep out dry air while the eyewall fully solidifies.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests