ATL: BETA - Models

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ATL: BETA - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:11 am

Only model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#2 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:20 am

00z Euro buries this in MX
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#3 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:15 am

toad strangler wrote:00z Euro buries this in MX


For the 0z suite, Canadian does the same. The ICON has it doing a sit-and-spin (aka Sally) just off the coast from Brownsville, while the GFS slowly moves a weak system north into SE Texas later next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:49 am

Of course you can’t put much weight on the models
this hurricane season. I would be concerned anywhere
along the Gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#5 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:52 am

lol models have been so bad this year
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#6 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:23 am

Stormcenter wrote:Of course you can’t put much weight on the models
this hurricane season. I would be concerned anywhere
along the Gulf coast.


Given how things have gone this season, I am in complete agreement.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#7 Postby FixySLN » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:24 am

Portastorm wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Of course you can’t put much weight on the models
this hurricane season. I would be concerned anywhere
along the Gulf coast.


Given how things have gone this season, I am in complete agreement.


You might get to 10k this season the way things are going.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#8 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:33 am

GFS pretty much drops development, but the Euro shows a TS, and both the CMC and GFS-Para have a strong TS/weak hurricane before landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#9 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:10 am

UKMET has development too. Decent tropical storm by 144 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#10 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:47 am

GFS-Para doesn't landfall until +150 hours at the MX/US border with a central pressure of 975 mbar.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#11 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:52 am

kevin wrote:GFS-Para doesn't landfall until +150 hours at the MX/US border with a central pressure of 975 mbar.

https://i.imgur.com/cCpkaJP.png


I think one of yesterday's Para runs had it heading NE into the area of the central GoM, so I guess we get days of this back and forth. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#12 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:34 am

06z Euro ensembles

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#13 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:44 am

PTrackerLA wrote:06z Euro ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/pd85XMt.png



Hey, that's way more of a signal that's 5+ days out than we got with Sally 3 days out!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#14 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:14 am

New GFS brings it toward the LA coastline in just
4 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#15 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:15 am

GFS also keeps it quite weak as it interacts with the trough.
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ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#16 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:17 am

New GFSImage


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#17 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:19 am

12z GFSImage


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#18 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:24 am

Let’s not put too much emphasis on strength
because we know how good the models have done
with that this season.

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:GFS also keeps it quite weak as it interacts with the trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#19 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:39 am

Matters very little if it is weak. 12z GFS gives areas being flooded right now by Sally a bonus 6-12 in of rainfall from 54h to 120h
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#20 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:44 am

The end of the GFS stalls it off LA coast then moves it to Texas
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