ATL: BETA - Models

[cycloneye]

144 to 168 hours.

[cycloneye]

168-192.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

216 hours.

[GCANE]

GFS spins it up Friday at the bottom of a Rossby Wave under an area of very divergent UL winds.
Rossby Wave is forecast to retreat north and could pull the disturbance with it as a possible 355K PV couplet.
ARWB would be to the west and would move east.

How an UL vort gets pulled down to the surface will depend on how much helicity there will be with possible towers firing around this.
If it does get pulled down, it will likely be structured as a more classical warm core.
It would then be susceptible to shear.
Will then have to see how the Rossby Wave is positioned then and if this will then be under the ARWB.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro ends.

[stormlover2013]

i will just wait till it develops then watch lol models haven't been good till 2 days out anyways lol

[TallahasseeMan]

Here we go again...


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[GCANE]

Very tricky intensity forecasting.
Not just with the Rossby Wave 355K PV coupling but also with dry air and high TPW.
Could it fire along a dry line?
Would it be able to pull high TPW air from the EPAC?
It could be one for Bones or could be one for the record books.
I wouldn't even venture a guess at this point.

[FixySLN]

Need a break.

[Wx_Warrior]

i will just wait till it develops then watch lol models haven't been good till 2 days out anyways lol

Truth. 100%

[St0rmTh0r]

Wow man the Gulf throwing a hurricane party this year!

[Nimbus]

Very tricky intensity forecasting.
Not just with the Rossby Wave 355K PV coupling but also with dry air and high TPW.
Could it fire along a dry line?
Would it be able to pull high TPW air from the EPAC?
It could be one for Bones or could be one for the record books.
I wouldn't even venture a guess at this point.

https://i.imgur.com/Pqr6xEm.png

Good questions what about the ridging to the north?

[BigB0882]

The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?

[Nimbus]

The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?

The mid level trough that is already drying up Mobile bay would not stick around for more than two or three days. Sounding like a missed trough solution with a stronger system till the next trough.

[SoupBone]

The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?

If you look at the end of the HWRF, it hits Western/Central Louisiana, then scrapes across the Louisiana coast over Houston, then heads southwest. Then the model ends, kind of appearing like it would re-emerge over the GoM. It's nutty.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS really lights up the Gulf!

[BigB0882]

The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?

If you look at the end of the HWRF, it hits Western/Central Louisiana, then scrapes across the Louisiana coast over Houston, then heads southwest. Then the model ends, kind of appearing like it would re-emerge over the GoM. It's nutty.

Yes, but what is the time line? Closer to GFS or EURO? And I’m only talking about first landfall. How many days does HWRF take to get to Louisiana?

I am on my phone and not all images show up.

[SoupBone]

The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?

If you look at the end of the HWRF, it hits Western/Central Louisiana, then scrapes across the Louisiana coast over Houston, then heads southwest. Then the model ends, kind of appearing like it would re-emerge over the GoM. It's nutty.

Yes, but what is the time line? Closer to GFS or EURO? And I’m only talking about first landfall. How many days does HWRF take to get to Louisiana?

I am on my phone and not all images show up.

Pretty much in line with the GFS, with a landfall this Sunday.

GFS on the left, HWRF on the right.

[TallahasseeMan]

12Z EPS really lights up the Gulf!

Could you post it?


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