ATL: TEDDY - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

Landfall near Bangor on the Euro, what an absolutely remarkable evolution.

If I remember correctly, it was the euro that first sniffed out sandy’s evolution as well

[plasticup]

Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.

You mean west?

[ColdMiser123]

Landfall near Bangor on the Euro, what an absolutely remarkable evolution.

If I remember correctly, it was the euro that first sniffed out sandy’s evolution as well

Need to see more consistency from the Euro, but that's three runs in a row now where it has this evolution.

Also didn't waiver when it showed Joaquin missing the phase.

[CrazyC83]

The pattern looks very reminiscent of the 1938 hurricane. Hard to imagine that, but then again it is 2020...

[Beef Stew]

Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.

Way west of Bermuda.

[Beef Stew]

The pattern looks very reminiscent of the 1938 hurricane. Hard to imagine that, but then again it is 2020...

Eerily similar in terms of synoptic evolution. It even has Teddy booking it at a comparable forward (N) speed between 120 and 144 hrs. If something like this were to verify, we could be looking at a landfall early next week.

[ColdMiser123]

A significant number of the CMC ensembles bring this near or over New England:

[supercane4867]

Wind field will be massive by the time it approaches any landmass. May very well resemble Sandy in terms of size.

[RL3AO]

The globals have pretty much been terrible in the tropics this season, but it's hard to not notice when the Euro does something crazy in the mid latitudes. That's where it shines.

[ColdMiser123]

The globals have pretty much been terrible in the tropics this season, but it's hard to not notice when the Euro does something crazy in the mid latitudes. That's where it shines.

And it also has quite a bit of support from the new EPS. New England needs to watch this extremely closely.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I have a bad feeling about this one, as a certain space pirate once said.

Just in case I'll cover Teddy's progress on my extreme weather blog (for Main, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island) starting tonight -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306311803190874117



 https://twitter.com/VerstegenWX/status/1306304861387067392



 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1306307176156327937

[RL3AO]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306311803190874117

That's um....some trend.

[hurricaneCW]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306311803190874117

Yikes!

[tomatkins]

Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.

Way west of Bermuda.

https://i.ibb.co/gzvLcmG/Screen-Shot-2020-09-16-at-2-57-14-PM.png

Yes. West. Dammit.

[tomatkins]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306311803190874117

That's um....some trend.

Very worriesome that eastern Maine isnt like the western outlier or anything. Basically right in the middle. Could definitely be a threat for anywhere in New England (and thats assuming it stops shifting west).

[TheDreamTraveler]

Landfall near Bangor on the Euro, what an absolutely remarkable evolution.

If I remember correctly, it was the euro that first sniffed out sandy’s evolution as well

Need to see more consistency from the Euro, but that's three runs in a row now where it has this evolution.

Also didn't waiver when it showed Joaquin missing the phase.

Yeah I forgot about that with Joaquin

Though with this being 6 days out and it shifting west 3 runs in a row now I'd say that's a trend currently. If it doesn't start evening out and continue going west well that's gonna be interesting to say the least

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1306322972882337792

[northjaxpro]

Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.

Way west of Bermuda.

https://i.ibb.co/gzvLcmG/Screen-Shot-2020-09-16-at-2-57-14-PM.png

Actually W/SW of Bermuda on this particular HWRF run.

[cp79]

The Hwrf model is actually moving due west or WSW at end of run. No hint of it moving north. So something to keep an eye on.