ATL: WILFRED - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

GEFS has this following Teddy near 60w. EPS does not even see it. Very weak signal

[CyclonicFury]

Environment looks favorable on SHIPS despite the bearish global model signal

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL982020 09/15/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 44 52 60 66 70 73 78 82 82 81 80
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 44 52 60 66 70 73 78 82 82 81 80
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 47 55 63 69 72 74 72 69 65
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 11 13 14 15 11 9 7 8 5 11 12 13 8 14 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -3 -5 0 3 2 3 -4 -2 3 6 2 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 63 54 30 41 47 51 73 70 62 15 356 351 341 316 280 289 294
SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 28.0 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 131 130 130 130 138 134 137 139 142 143 143 140 137 137 139
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 130 129 130 130 138 134 137 139 142 143 142 135 131 131 135
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 11
700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 76 78 75 72 70 69 70 67 63 58 55 50 49 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 35 26 24 21 33 32 47 46 59 70 64 42 31 19 -7 -19 -33
200 MB DIV 27 25 38 4 -10 53 58 75 49 27 -3 3 7 62 31 0 -1
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 -6 -4 -3 0 -1 -3 1 0 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 538 589 664 745 844 1052 1284 1557 1515 1431 1397 1199 1085 1040 998 994 975
LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.6 10.2 11.0 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 20.4 21.1 22.0 22.9 23.9 25.9 28.1 30.7 33.7 36.9 40.1 42.9 45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 10 12 14 15 16 16 13 10 7 7 7 9
HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 10 9 9 16 11 11 15 19 22 36 33 22 21 25

[AutoPenalti]

Poor little 98L, everyone is so focused on Sally and Teddybear.

[aspen]

Poor little 98L, everyone is so focused on Sally and Teddybear.

This could be a sleeper wave that sneaks up on us and ends up near or in the Caribbean once the hype from Sally, Teddy, and 90L is gone. The longer it takes to develop while in the MDR, the further west it’ll go. This will be Alpha if 90L becomes Wilfred.

[AnnularCane]

Poor little 98L, everyone is so focused on Sally and Teddybear.

He needs to develop and get named so he can get more attention.

Well, theoretically.

[northjaxpro]

Poor little 98L, everyone is so focused on Sally and Teddybear.

This could be a sleeper wave that sneaks up on us and ends up near or in the Caribbean once the hype from Sally, Teddy, and 90L is gone. The longer it takes to develop while in the MDR, the further west it’ll go. This will be Alpha if 90L becomes Wilfred.

Plus, there is yet another AEW, which will emerge off the Africa coast behind 98L in the next couple of days as well. The models are even developing that as well. And the beat just goes on and on ......

[aspen]

Poor little 98L, everyone is so focused on Sally and Teddybear.

This could be a sleeper wave that sneaks up on us and ends up near or in the Caribbean once the hype from Sally, Teddy, and 90L is gone. The longer it takes to develop while in the MDR, the further west it’ll go. This will be Alpha if 90L becomes Wilfred.

Plus, there is yet another AEW which will emerge off the Africa coast behind 98L in the next couple of days as well. And the beat just goes on and on ......

I’ve noticed that for the last several model runs. I’m surprised the NHC hasn’t mentioned it in a TWO. Unfortunately, it looks like it’ll be another Vicky and won’t be a good ACE generator.

[chaser1]

Well, the title of this thread is about to become "Wilfred-Models" shortly. Up to this morning, model ensembles have "inched" this system a tad more to the left however this may have been in response to less then enthusiastic support for much near term organization and development. I just don't see how enough mid level ridging could possibly keep (soon) Wilfred on a west to WNW motion for too long. I believe that we will see the models begin to show broad consensus for this system to begin moving NW in the wake of Teddy, and as a result of ex-Paulette helping to break down what little ridging remains to the north of our latest incarnation of this 2020 season of tropical cyclone salad. Speaking of salad, I guess that means the GOM will take a Greek Salad (and dine in lol).

[aspen]

This seems to be the reason why the NHC and all of the models want to kill Wilfred: this massive trough and string of vorticity coming down from the CONUS.