ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#301 Postby ThetaE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:19 pm

The upper-level recon plane earlier today measured this dropsonde just to the SE of Teddy, and it looks to capture what's been impinging on Teddy's east side fairly well. Check out the winds from just under 500 mb, and the associated dry air being ventilated into that layer. That's the mid-level shear that's hampered Teddy's development over today. I don't know enough to say how this feature will evolve over time, but it's noteworthy that the strong winds do not extend over a very deep layer. Only one of the neighboring sondes showed any signal for this sort of mid-layer shear also, implying that this is also a horizontally limited feature. I suspect this means that Teddy might be able to overcome this negative detriment, especially if that deeper convection on the west side persists and begins to wrap around south of the center of circulation.

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#302 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:25 pm

:uarrow: Convection has been wrapping to the south. The CMG/CDG wraps around the NW and SW quadrants.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#303 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:37 pm

Teddy you better become a major, we’re rooting for you! :)
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#304 Postby ThetaE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:40 pm

aspen wrote::uarrow: Convection has been wrapping to the south. The CMG/CDG wraps around the NW and SW quadrants.


Getting a few hot towers in the NE quad now... I'm thinking we're beginning a new round of intensification.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#305 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:05 pm

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#306 Postby gfsperpendicular » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:09 pm

ThetaE wrote:The upper-level recon plane earlier today measured this dropsonde just to the SE of Teddy, and it looks to capture what's been impinging on Teddy's east side fairly well. Check out the winds from just under 500 mb, and the associated dry air being ventilated into that layer. That's the mid-level shear that's hampered Teddy's development over today. I don't know enough to say how this feature will evolve over time, but it's noteworthy that the strong winds do not extend over a very deep layer. Only one of the neighboring sondes showed any signal for this sort of mid-layer shear also, implying that this is also a horizontally limited feature. I suspect this means that Teddy might be able to overcome this negative detriment, especially if that deeper convection on the west side persists and begins to wrap around south of the center of circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/TMZGYKR.png


Aren't those winds just the circulation of the storm? The 1001 mb surface pressure suggests this sonde was dropped well into the circulation.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#307 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:10 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Teddy you better become a major, we’re rooting for you! :)

Yeah, for the stats, especially since we just had two almost-majors. But don't hit Bermuda!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#308 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:10 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
ThetaE wrote:The upper-level recon plane earlier today measured this dropsonde just to the SE of Teddy, and it looks to capture what's been impinging on Teddy's east side fairly well. Check out the winds from just under 500 mb, and the associated dry air being ventilated into that layer. That's the mid-level shear that's hampered Teddy's development over today. I don't know enough to say how this feature will evolve over time, but it's noteworthy that the strong winds do not extend over a very deep layer. Only one of the neighboring sondes showed any signal for this sort of mid-layer shear also, implying that this is also a horizontally limited feature. I suspect this means that Teddy might be able to overcome this negative detriment, especially if that deeper convection on the west side persists and begins to wrap around south of the center of circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/TMZGYKR.png


Aren't those winds just the circulation of the storm? The 1001 mb surface pressure suggests this sonde was dropped well into the circulation.


Yeah. They were pointing out the dry air in the mid levels where the red and green line are separated on that graph.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#309 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:24 pm

I’m guessing the mid-level shear Teddy has struggled with today has calmed somewhat, because <-75C convection is rapidly firing in all quadrants around the eye. It just needs to keep this up for another six hours or so to be a major. Fingers crossed it’s not weakening or slowing down when recon arrives tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#310 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:33 pm

I'm pulling for Teddy to dissipate immediately. Looks like it merges with a cold front north of Bermuda Tuesday and becomes a big ET storm.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#311 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:45 pm

aspen wrote:I’m guessing the mid-level shear Teddy has struggled with today has calmed somewhat, because <-75C convection is rapidly firing in all quadrants around the eye. It just needs to keep this up for another six hours or so to be a major. Fingers crossed it’s not weakening or slowing down when recon arrives tomorrow afternoon.

Come on Teddy you can do it!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#312 Postby storm4u » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm pulling for Teddy to dissipate immediately. Looks like it merges with a cold front north of Bermuda Tuesday and becomes a big ET storm.


Watching here in New England .. Euro and EPS were eye opening
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#313 Postby ClarCari » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:54 pm

storm4u wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm pulling for Teddy to dissipate immediately. Looks like it merges with a cold front north of Bermuda Tuesday and becomes a big ET storm.


Watching here in New England .. Euro and EPS were eye opening

I doubt a cold front would outright dissipate him that quick.
Especially now it looks likes convention is popcorning around his center and ready to take off again anytime now.
But thankfully I doubt a Sandy repeat or anything close to that is likely bc of this front tho!
Bermuda and Nova Scotia still should keep their eyes open however.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#314 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:56 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Teddy you better become a major, we’re rooting for you! :)



Do hurricanes respond to pressure from humans? :lol:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#315 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:21 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Teddy you better become a major, we’re rooting for you! :)



Do hurricanes respond to pressure from humans? :lol:

If that was the case, then every storm would either be a tropical storm or a category 5.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#316 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:51 pm

Goes down to 80kts.

20L TEDDY 200917 0000 17.6N 51.0W ATL 80 973
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#317 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:Goes down to 80kts.

20L TEDDY 200917 0000 17.6N 51.0W ATL 80 973

It did that this morning too... Why? It certainly doesn't look like it's weakening
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#318 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:54 pm

And back to square one with the deepest convection in the NW quadrant.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#319 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:00 pm

EWRC appears to be in effect. It has to complete quickly for Teddy to have time to RI before shear picks up on Friday.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#320 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:05 pm

Mega eye coming soon

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