ATL: WILFRED - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands have changed little during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this
system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[RL3AO]

There's a chance that we might miss having Paulette and Alpha active at the same time by maybe a day if this and 99L formed. That doesn't seem possible.

[CrazyC83]

There's a chance that we might miss having Paulette and Alpha active at the same time by maybe a day if this and 99L formed. That doesn't seem possible.

Or even have ex-Paulette still lurking and possibly becoming active again as it drops south, providing it can regain tropical characteristics.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands have changed little during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this
system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ClarCari]

While right now it won’t be yet affected by Teddy, as the days go by whatever this becomes will maybe stay weak as Teddy becomes stronger and prevents this system from strengthening much and recurving until it breaks free in the more extreme western Atlantic or eastern Caribbean.

Paulette was and is too far to have that drastic of an affect on Teddy right now, but could actually be part of the reason why Teddy isn’t looking to recurve as far out as she did.

It’s like a interesting game of dominos

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[northjaxpro]

I think the odds are rather decent that 98L gets close to the Lesser Antilles as time progresses.

[SconnieCane]

:uarrow: I think the odds are rather decent that 98L gets close to the Lesser Antilles as time progresses.

Yes, that'll be an awfully low rider and that red shaded area implies a long duration of steady WNW movement. Lot of moving parts with the upper-air pattern over the Atlantic by the time it reaches the end of that zone. Now we'll see if the other AOIs can keep a lid on long enough for this to get the last proper name on the list or is it going Greek?

[FixySLN]

The Gulf needs a break. I haven't looked to see what the conditions are going to be like as it gets closer, but it's mid-september.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of
this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Ryxn]

This will likely be Alpha

90L is really impressing this evening. Already has the sake odds as this wave.

[us89]

This is now down to 40/60:

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable
over the weekend. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[ClarCari]

I’m curious if this invest is really gonna curve up like the NHC outlook map may be suggesting. I guess it depends if it really can get it’s act together or not. I just don’t expect anything right now until Teddy is far enough away.

[cycloneye]

This is now down to 40/60:

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable
over the weekend. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

This is now down to 40/60:

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable
over the weekend. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/1Emhdd9.png

Big change on that graphic. Earlier they had it going west the whole way

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe we’ll have to wait to go Greek.

[northjaxpro]

Much will depend on how quickly big bad Teddy will leave the scene in the medium term.

If Teddy is slower to exit the scene, then I think 98L will just follow on his heels and enter into the weakness created by him.

However, if Teddy picks up forward speed and exits the picture, it could allow for the Central Atlantic ridge to fill in and keep 98L to stay on a west-northwest track. We will see..

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Invest 98L
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 18, 2020:

Location: 11.3°N 29.1°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 110 nm

[CrazyC83]

Maybe we’ll have to wait to go Greek.

Don't tell 99L that.

[Hurricaneman]

This looks like a tropical storm, maybe by 5am or 11am if convection persists