WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[NotoSans]

Upgraded to TS Noul.

[cycloneye]

TS 2011 (Noul)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 15 September 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 15 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°00' (13.0°)
E118°30' (118.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 16 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E117°20' (117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 16 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35' (14.6°)
E115°50' (115.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 17 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E111°20' (111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 18 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°20' (17.3°)
E105°30' (105.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 19 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N17°55' (17.9°)
E98°25' (98.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
FORMATIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE LAST POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT
THE IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE
WESTWARD/EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND (LIGHT 10-15KT) RELATIVE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-
PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. TS 13W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. UNDER THE STR, TS 13W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, MAKE
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM NEAR HUE, THAN DRAG DEEP INTO THE
INDOCHINA PENINSULA THROUGH LAOS AND CROSS INTO THAILAND BY TAU 72.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT DRAGS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN THAILAND, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION AS IT CROSSES INTO MYANMAR. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

40 knots

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY A DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A LLC FEATURE IN THE 2023Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.9/43KTS TO
REFLECT THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
MODERATE WESTWARD/EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND MODERATE 15-20KT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. UNDER THE STEERING STR, TS 13W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM NEAR HUE, VIETNAM AROUND TAU
54, THEN DRAG DEEP INTO THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA THROUGH LAOS AND
CROSS INTO THAILAND BY TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT DRAGS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN THAILAND, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION AFTER IT CROSSES INTO MYANMAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO 240NM AT TAU 72 LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Up to 45 knots!

13W NOUL 200916 1200 13.7N 115.6E WPAC 45 993

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. A 162228Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). ADT ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER
AT 3.4-3.5 (ABOUT 55 KNOTS) WITH A 162227Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50
KNOTS. A 170047Z ASCAT-A IMAGE INDICATED 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN QUADRANT, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST VALUES (31C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW RESTRICTED BY CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH. TS NOUL
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS NOUL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS IT TRAVERSES OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, IT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DESPITE CONTINUED
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VWS AS A RESULT OF THE WARM SSTS AND
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KTS
BY TAU 24. NEAR TAU 30 THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HUE,
VIETNAM. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AS TS NOUL TRACKS
DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST ASIA, IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 92 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

https://i.imgur.com/1fQ72Vm.gif

Noul should have been a typhoon by this time however NE shear kept it in check
The partially exposed LLC is curently in the vicinity of the Paracel Archipelago.

[doomhaMwx]

Well, it appeared to be in the process of building an inner core yesterday but it can't withstand the shear.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE MSI SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC. A 170539Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OFFSET FROM THE LLCC OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS BASED
ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KTS,
PGTW/RJTD). FURTHERMORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 170610Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.4 (ABOUT 55 KTS) AND A
170136Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 48 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
PERSISTENT 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING
OFFSET BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST VALUES (30-31 CELSIUS), AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, MAINTAINING AN OVERALL MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED BY
CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH. TS 13W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. ALL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.
B. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TS 13W WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSITFY IN THE NEAR TERM DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30 KT) VWS. THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
CONTINUED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS
BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR HUE, VIETNAM JUST AFTER TAU 24. FOLLOWING
LANDFALL, THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND CONTINUED STRONG VWS WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 48 AS TS 13W TRACKS DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST ASIA.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 107
NM AT TAU 24. THE GFS AND JGSM SOLUTIONS ACT AS THE SOUTHERLY AND
NORTHERLY OUTLIERS, RESPECTIVELY. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 171811Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED WITH HUE
(VVPB) SHOWING 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO 36 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 994MB AND
SANYA (59948) OVER SOUTHERN HAINAN ISLAND AT 30 KNOTS. BASED ON THE
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON KNES/PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 3.0-3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) AND ADT ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
3.0-3.2 (45-50 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30 KNOTS OFFSET BY
VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (31C).
ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS NOUL CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS NOUL WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO 55 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12, AND WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 55 NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 12, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Coming ashore now. Not a typhoon, but it's a significant rainfall threat.

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1306774457550168064

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 172358Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM
MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HUE, VIETNAM AT ABOUT 18/0100Z AND HAS
BEGUN TO TRACK INLAND. 18/0130Z SURFACE WINDS AT HUE (VVPB)
INDICATED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
WITH A MINIMUM SLP NEAR 989MB. DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20
KNOTS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES
(31C). TS NOUL CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS NOUL WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 105.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 105.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.5N 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.0N 98.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 104.4E.
18SEP20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
WEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 27 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH HAS TRACKED INLAND AND IS LOCATED OVER LAOS. AN 180620Z ATMS
88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS
THE LLCC, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KTS BASED ON A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WEAKER WIND SPEEDS AND
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OF 993-995 MB. DESPITE ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, TS 13W IS TRACKING THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (20-30 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TS 13W TO
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

the tail is quite a sight