ATL: BETA - Models

[xironman]

SHIPS has a ts by the time recon gets there. No shear issues to speak of. The air eventually dries out though.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902020 09/17/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 55 63 62 64 65 67 67 69 72 75 78
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 55 63 62 64 65 67 67 55 37 30 28
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 48 54 58 61 64 67 68 70 57 38 30 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 8 6 7 9 3 5 3 9 5 8 7 5 5 6 7 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 0 -2 5 2 10 0 3 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 76 37 81 225 244 261 239 312 179 136 173 150 164 92 102 91 132
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 168 167 167 167 165 167 167 166 162 155 144 137 136 138
ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 145 146 144 146 145 142 145 145 144 142 137 128 122 120 122
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 10 8 9 7 8 6 8 6 7 5 7 5 7 6
700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 79 80 76 73 68 65 62 61 61 61 61 63 61 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 10 9 11 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 16 25 39 53 53 53 52 54 21 13 -12 -4 -16 -8 17 30 47
200 MB DIV 25 28 46 57 49 53 44 33 21 22 24 28 36 6 14 11 39
700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 2 1 6 3 10 0 6 5 7 6 6 6 3 2
LAND (KM) 214 201 204 207 219 227 236 244 241 208 166 114 57 -19 -126 -202 -259
LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.1 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.9 95.2 95.6 96.1 96.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2
HEAT CONTENT 57 53 52 53 57 60 62 65 64 54 46 39 29 20 9 9 6

[aspen]

The models are all over the place with 90L. The GFS and GFS-Para split this into two systems, the Euro has it meander for most of its run, the CMC and HWRF have a strong TS making landfall in S Tex in 4-5 days, and the ICON takes even longer to approach the W Gulf Coast.

[bohai]

On the SHIPS intensity info, can someone explain differences in V (KT) No Land, Land and LGEM? I haven't been able to find it referenced.

[Steve]

The models are all over the place with 90L. The GFS and GFS-Para split this into two systems, the Euro has it meander for most of its run, the CMC and HWRF have a strong TS making landfall in S Tex in 4-5 days, and the ICON takes even longer to approach the W Gulf Coast.

Yeah. There were many different scenarios being played out when I went to sleep last night. There are several different pieces to the puzzle including 90L, a deep trough, a cold front, a big upper high in the central US, etc.

12z NAM 3km goes out to 60 hours. It shows a deepening 985mb system (Cat 1) moving toward Corpus Christi but it's unclear if it will ever get that far west or decide to loop back to the BoC or come up NNE/NE.

[Spacecoast]

ECMWF Operational has weak Cat1 into N.O @ hr 192.

0z ECMF Ensembles have some strong members heading NE, eventually after a week of meandering:


06z GEFS has it heading towards the border after 144 hr:

[Steve]

NAM 12km loops around the Gulf a couple of times and moves toward the LA Coast but pulls WNW at the end and hits around Corpus as a non-consequential low.

[Steve]

ICON through 54 hours is similar. It spins around down in the southern Gulf. This is 54 hours, but we'll see where it goes later. Maybe Lrak aka Karl can get some swells out of this.

[Senobia]

ECMWF Operational has weak Cat1 into N.O @ hr 192.

0z ECMF Ensembles have some strong members heading NE, eventually after a week of meandering:
https://i.ibb.co/m6Wcppk/basin-wind-ecmf-gen-atl-2020091700.png

06z GEFS has it heading towards the border after 144 hr:
https://i.ibb.co/7YCsMcw/system-202009170600-901291.png

These tracks are insane.

[AerospaceEng]

12Z ICON has 985mb off middle Texas coast @ 120 hours.

[Gums]

Salute!

I am scared, as this one resembles Opal. anyone else?

Gums sends...

[Steve]

Salute!

I am scared, as this one resembles Opal. anyone else?

Gums sends...

Hey Gums. Sort of. But maybe it's a little early for that last evacuation of Gulf heat?

[SoupBone]

The GFS does some wacky stuff with it, sending it into the central GoM then looping back into the southern Texas coastline on Tuesday. Looks like it would be dumping a bunch of rain too.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Spins up 3 lows in GOM

[SoupBone]

Holy crap, did anyone look at the HWRF? It rakes the central Texas coastline heading SW, then at the end begins to re-emerge into the GoM intact.

[hurricanehunter69]

This latest rap around should do the trick it would seem. Interesting to see how strong of a spin in can develop in a historically conducive location. Also closely watching that approaching cool/dry air from the north. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems like the models still don’t have a clue. Looks like a small storm that forms in a generally broad area of low pressure, with an erratic track and potential of large changes in intensity. Given how the models handled sally, I would say most aspects of this are pretty up in the air

[ConvergenceZone]

I noticed this invest isn’t on the storm2k map at the top of the page? Does that mean it’s no longer an invest?

[Blinhart]

I noticed this invest isn’t on the storm2k map at the top of the page? Does that mean it’s no longer an invest?

As said earlier, it has never been on there, evidently there is some type of programming bug that prevents 90L from being shown.

[TallahasseeMan]

12z HWRF has this stronger thru 36hrs compared to 6z/0z

[Blinhart]

Seems like the models still don’t have a clue. Looks like a small storm that forms in a generally broad area of low pressure, with an erratic track and potential of large changes in intensity. Given how the models handled sally, I would say most aspects of this are pretty up in the air

This is why I say everyone on the Gulf Coast needs to keep their eyes on this system.