ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Here is my thinking for the BT of Sally (up to this point).

AL172020, SALLY, 25,
20200911, 1200, , TD, 25.0N, 78.0W, 30, 1010,
20200911, 1800, , TD, 25.3N, 78.6W, 30, 1008,
20200912, 0000, , TD, 25.6N, 79.4W, 30, 1007,
20200912, 0600, , TS, 25.6N, 80.2W, 35, 1004,
20200912, 0700, L, TS, 25.6N, 80.3W, 35, 1003,
20200912, 1200, , TS, 25.5N, 80.8W, 35, 1004,
20200912, 1800, , TS, 25.7N, 81.5W, 35, 1004,
20200913, 0000, , TS, 26.1N, 82.4W, 40, 1002,
20200913, 0600, , TS, 26.7N, 83.5W, 50, 999,
20200913, 1200, , TS, 27.3N, 84.6W, 50, 998,
20200913, 1800, , TS, 27.7N, 85.5W, 55, 997,
20200914, 0000, , TS, 27.9N, 86.1W, 55, 996,
20200914, 0600, , TS, 28.1N, 86.6W, 60, 995,
20200914, 1200, , HU, 28.4N, 86.9W, 65, 992,
20200914, 1800, , HU, 28.7N, 87.2W, 75, 986,
20200915, 0000, , HU, 28.8N, 87.5W, 75, 987,
20200915, 0600, , HU, 28.9N, 87.9W, 70, 985,
20200915, 1200, , HU, 29.1N, 88.0W, 70, 983,
20200915, 1800, , HU, 29.3N, 88.1W, 75, 980,
20200916, 0000, , HU, 29.6N, 88.0W, 80, 974,
20200916, 0600, , HU, 29.9N, 87.8W, 90, 968,
20200916, 0945, L, HU, 30.2N, 87.7W, 95, 966,
20200916, 1200, , HU, 30.4N, 87.6W, 80, 972,
20200916, 1800, , TS, 30.9N, 87.1W, 55, 980,
20200917, 0000, , TD, 31.5N, 86.5W, 30, 994,

There are several major changes that I make here.

* I believe that Sally became a tropical storm BEFORE making its first landfall in Florida. That is based on a combination of surface and radar data, with the most convincing result being from the University of Miami station on Key Biscayne. I kept it as a tropical storm all the way through, since the first Recon flight supported such.
* The initial peak I believe was overblown - I think the data to support the operational 85 kt was suspect. I lowered that peak to 75 kt (closer in line with the flight level data) as that was based on one SFMR measurement that quickly corrected itself. After that, until its second rapid intensification, the intensities were also lowered, mostly to 70 kt.
* The peak intensity, at landfall, I estimate to be 95 kt. That is based on a blend of the radar data (peaking at about 118 kt at 5,000 feet = 94 kt), the T5.5 satellite estimate and the 110 kt flight level winds. The SFMR is unreliable in shallow water. The pressure estimate is 966 mb, which is based on a blend of Buoy 42012 (970 mb/52 kt at below standard elevation - supports 964 mb), storm chaser data (lowest 968 mb) and dropsonde data (lowest 967 mb).

Largely splitting hairs, but I differ on the 95kt peak. At two separate instances, I saw multiple bins of 122kt (140mph). Given your 80% reduction, that would bump it to 98kt. Additionally, with the flight level wind of 110kt, wouldn’t that justify 99kt?

https://imgur.com/a/Dbc00C2

Interesting about the radar. The highest I saw was 118. Yes, the 110 kt FL winds is 99 kt as well. There may be enough to bump it to 100 kt, but I was being a bit on the cautious side.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Siggy93757004/status/1306451412109406215



It appears that flooding was actually much less than originally expected. Good news. Does anyone know why the crest was overestimated?

[Blown Away]

Maybe this info goes in the Storm Observation discussion, but would be nice to hear from and see pics from our LA/Miss/Bama/Panhandle peeps & storm chasers? Do they post here or create a new discussion?

[Do_For_Love]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

* The initial peak I believe was overblown - I think the data to support the operational 85 kt was suspect. I lowered that peak to 75 kt (closer in line with the flight level data) as that was based on one SFMR measurement that quickly corrected itself. After that, until its second rapid intensification, the intensities were also lowered, mostly to 70 kt.

Makes sense to me. That convective burst prior to the temporary bump in intensity was crazy! Maybe it just threw everything off for a second, lol.

[Ivanhater]

It is a disaster in Pensacola. Pieces of the Pensacola bay bridge are missing. Longest night of my life.

[Blow_Hard]

It is a disaster in Pensacola. Pieces of the Pensacola bay bridge are missing. Longest night of my life.

Just great to see you made it through OK. I’m sure it was nerve racking because of all the late game track and intensity forecasts.

[SconnieCane]

It is a disaster in Pensacola. Pieces of the Pensacola bay bridge are missing. Longest night of my life.

Perhaps a name change to "Sallyhater" is due?

[northjaxpro]

It is good to hear from you Ivanhater that you and yours made it through Sally's wrath.

The panhandle really took a beating from Sally.

[AlabamaDave]

I assume the 281 bridge to Gulf Breeze via the east side of Escambia Bay must be okay, because my daughter commutes from West Pensacola to GB for work and made it (took over 1-1/2 hours). I ain't no road engineer, but isn't there something that can be done to reinforce these bridges in hurricane prone areas? Seems like this happens with every significant hurricane.

[us89]

I assume the 281 bridge to Gulf Breeze via the east side of Escambia Bay must be okay, because my daughter commutes from West Pensacola to GB for work and made it (took over 1-1/2 hours). I ain't no road engineer, but isn't there something that can be done to reinforce these bridges in hurricane prone areas? Seems like this happens with every significant hurricane.

The US 98 bridge got hit by a barge. Not much you can do to prepare for that.

[Steve]

I assume the 281 bridge to Gulf Breeze via the east side of Escambia Bay must be okay, because my daughter commutes from West Pensacola to GB for work and made it (took over 1-1/2 hours). I ain't no road engineer, but isn't there something that can be done to reinforce these bridges in hurricane prone areas? Seems like this happens with every significant hurricane.

The US 98 bridge got hit by a barge. Not much you can do to prepare for that.

Yeah, and a crane (allegedly) fell on top of the broken section which was a different spot than where the barge hit it. The old bridge was destroyed in Ivan, and the super old bridge was a fishing pier for almost the entire length until it too got destroyed. The new bridge which they have been building the last couple years was much much higher (e.g. the I-10 Twin Span over Lake Pontchartrain) so that the wave action couldn't destroy it. Same for the 3 mile bridge. I guess the state or state's engineering company should have pulled the floating docks and barges farther away from the bridge. They are moored, but there's literally nothing else they can hit in the Sound all the way to the 281/Garcon Point Bridge or the little peninsula hamlet of 4 or 5 houses right off Bayshore Road.

[Aric Dunn]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Here is my thinking for the BT of Sally (up to this point).

AL172020, SALLY, 25,
20200911, 1200, , TD, 25.0N, 78.0W, 30, 1010,
20200911, 1800, , TD, 25.3N, 78.6W, 30, 1008,
20200912, 0000, , TD, 25.6N, 79.4W, 30, 1007,
20200912, 0600, , TS, 25.6N, 80.2W, 35, 1004,
20200912, 0700, L, TS, 25.6N, 80.3W, 35, 1003,
20200912, 1200, , TS, 25.5N, 80.8W, 35, 1004,
20200912, 1800, , TS, 25.7N, 81.5W, 35, 1004,
20200913, 0000, , TS, 26.1N, 82.4W, 40, 1002,
20200913, 0600, , TS, 26.7N, 83.5W, 50, 999,
20200913, 1200, , TS, 27.3N, 84.6W, 50, 998,
20200913, 1800, , TS, 27.7N, 85.5W, 55, 997,
20200914, 0000, , TS, 27.9N, 86.1W, 55, 996,
20200914, 0600, , TS, 28.1N, 86.6W, 60, 995,
20200914, 1200, , HU, 28.4N, 86.9W, 65, 992,
20200914, 1800, , HU, 28.7N, 87.2W, 75, 986,
20200915, 0000, , HU, 28.8N, 87.5W, 75, 987,
20200915, 0600, , HU, 28.9N, 87.9W, 70, 985,
20200915, 1200, , HU, 29.1N, 88.0W, 70, 983,
20200915, 1800, , HU, 29.3N, 88.1W, 75, 980,
20200916, 0000, , HU, 29.6N, 88.0W, 80, 974,
20200916, 0600, , HU, 29.9N, 87.8W, 90, 968,
20200916, 0945, L, HU, 30.2N, 87.7W, 95, 966,
20200916, 1200, , HU, 30.4N, 87.6W, 80, 972,
20200916, 1800, , TS, 30.9N, 87.1W, 55, 980,
20200917, 0000, , TD, 31.5N, 86.5W, 30, 994,

There are several major changes that I make here.

* I believe that Sally became a tropical storm BEFORE making its first landfall in Florida. That is based on a combination of surface and radar data, with the most convincing result being from the University of Miami station on Key Biscayne. I kept it as a tropical storm all the way through, since the first Recon flight supported such.
* The initial peak I believe was overblown - I think the data to support the operational 85 kt was suspect. I lowered that peak to 75 kt (closer in line with the flight level data) as that was based on one SFMR measurement that quickly corrected itself. After that, until its second rapid intensification, the intensities were also lowered, mostly to 70 kt.
* The peak intensity, at landfall, I estimate to be 95 kt. That is based on a blend of the radar data (peaking at about 118 kt at 5,000 feet = 94 kt), the T5.5 satellite estimate and the 110 kt flight level winds. The SFMR is unreliable in shallow water. The pressure estimate is 966 mb, which is based on a blend of Buoy 42012 (970 mb/52 kt at below standard elevation - supports 964 mb), storm chaser data (lowest 968 mb) and dropsonde data (lowest 967 mb).

Largely splitting hairs, but I differ on the 95kt peak. At two separate instances, I saw multiple bins of 122kt (140mph). Given your 80% reduction, that would bump it to 98kt. Additionally, with the flight level wind of 110kt, wouldn’t that justify 99kt?

https://imgur.com/a/Dbc00C2

Interesting about the radar. The highest I saw was 118. Yes, the 110 kt FL winds is 99 kt as well. There may be enough to bump it to 100 kt, but I was being a bit on the cautious side.

So if you watched or go back and watch the video of the NE eyewall before the inner eyewall came ashore we measured multiple 10+ sec sustained 105 mph with several gust into the 120s mph. with the highest being 124.4 mph gust.

All of this again before things became worse and winds ticked up with violent gust when the inner side of the eyewall trained over us. we could not risk driving out at that point to take measurements.

So from all data I have seen in addition to being in the strongest quad for many hours and the damage on the ground.. 100 to 105 kts is quite reasonable.

[EquusStorm]

Mom's workplace in Fort Morgan and a nearby rental property. Company says many of their properties suffered major damage... guess not too surprising with the 120+ gusts.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Sorry to hear about all the damage. Hopefully, this will be the last one for the Northern Gulf Coast in 2020. *crosses fingers* You guys deserve a break.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Per the NHC's 11 am update today, Sally is now post-tropical and expected to dissipate into a remnant low within the next 36 hours. Good riddance; it will not be missed.

Hope everyone recovers as fast as possible.

[EquusStorm]

Brother had almost considered staying at one of the Fort Morgan beachfront units on Sally's initial track but decided to head inland about the time the path shifted east and intensification began, a wise call.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a quick edit of some of the video from one of the people on the intercept with me.

There will be a lot more Hi Def video of the night uploaded.

 https://twitter.com/ChrisRoderickWX/status/1306682921198157824

[CrazyC83]

It's one and done for you, Sally...most likely the is for you! Good riddance!

[BobHarlem]

Shoal river flooding closed I-10 and RT 90 (water over the bridge) near Crestview, detour for this is going all the way to Ft. Walton or Alabama to get around.

[cag1953]

It is a disaster in Pensacola. Pieces of the Pensacola bay bridge are missing. Longest night of my life.

We're across the bay in Gulf Breeze. I agree,longest night of my life. I didn't think it would ever end. Our yard started to flood just like in 2014,but ended up no where near as bad. No damage as far as we can see,just lots of yard debris. Driving around,there is quite a bit of tree damage. All in all,not as bad as Ivan but it's still bad. Especially the flooding.