ATL: WILFRED - Remnants - Discussion

[ClarCari]

hehehe well lookie there,
It’s like being that one unathletic friend who needs his fit bros to cheer him on.

Convection has been persistantly building the past few hours and ASCAT is finding a circulation starting to form more tightly. Already some TS strength winds in there!

[CrazyC83]

It's a race between Wilfred and Sorority Alpha...

[ClarCari]

Up to 60/60! More convection and DMAX could maybe spin this enough straight to a TS.

[StrongWind]

This one's like the red-headed step child of the Atlantic. No one cares.

[SconnieCane]

This one's like the red-headed step child of the Atlantic. No one cares.

Right. Must be all fish runs? No sign of ridging building back in behind Teddy?

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are
becoming better organized. Earlier satellite-derived wind data
indicated that this system does not yet have a well-defined center,
but it is producing winds near tropical-storm-force to its east.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development during the next day or two and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form before the end of the week. This
system is forecast move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through
the weekend. For more information on this system, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[northjaxpro]

This one's like the red-headed step child of the Atlantic. No one cares.

Right. Must be all fish runs? No sign of ridging building back in behind Teddy?

I talked about this in a post on this thread I believe on the previous page.

Teddy holds the key on how this system unfolds in the coming days. Teddy is forecast to increase in forward speed by the end of this weekend as he hopefully passes Bermuda by just to their
east. I will be watching closely to see if the Central ATL ridge can build in.behind Teddy. Now, if this happens, it could be possible that 98L could get underneath a building ridge and get steered closer to the Lesser Antilles during next week.

It is all about timing and how these factors materialize in the coming days. I will say that interests in the Lesser Antilles should definitely keep a wary eye on 98L in the medium term just in case 98L indeed does not get caught up into the weakness left behind in Teddy's wake.

[EquusStorm]

The low latitude has been intriguing, but guess that remains to be seen; guess I shouldn't be shocked it ramped up again suddenly lol

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 23, 2020091812, , BEST, 0, 117N, 316W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 120, 0, 0, 1012, 210, 90, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, WILFRED, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 045, TRANSITIONED, alC82020 to al232020,

[cainjamin]

Another set of storms coming in pairs! Too funny that 98L sniped Wilfred from TD 22.

[gfsperpendicular]

No more names

[Beef Stew]

A W storm in the MDR, in mid September. Pretty wild.

[chaser1]

This one's like the red-headed step child of the Atlantic. No one cares.

Funny but it does seem that way. Likely given that we have two other systems threatening land over the next few days and that the prospects for 98L to re-curve are quite likely. Have to admit that I was a bit surprised looking at how well this system has consolidated over night. Nice CDO and what appears as possible banding features. If the convection does not fall off, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if NHC were to suddenly tag this as Wilfred later today or tonight. Biggest issue working against this from happening might just be the limited bouy or ship data to verify a closed LLC. Visible satellite suggests to me that this is at the surface. Question is, just how defined is the LLC. Good chance we already have a T.D. here right now, but minus ASCAT or surface data to support this NHC is not in any dumpster-hurry to classify quite yet. All this being said, a deeper system will be more apt to track more pole-ward given the weakened mid level ridging over the Central Tropical Atlantic. I don't see this system as a threat to the Lesser Antilles unless 98L were to remain weak and disorganized.

Edit: hahaha, if I could've typed just a tad faster, then this would have been posted prior to Nancy's post just above LOL. Welp, I guess there it is!

[northjaxpro]

Well now, it appears we have Wilfred in the MDR

[us89]

I did not expect Wilfred from this. I was convinced that would be the GOM storm that's currently TD 22.

[Aric Dunn]

I suppose if this was going to be the last MDR storm it would be very fitting to end on the W name..

but we might get two more MRD storms in the coming weeks.

[aspen]

I did not expect Wilfred from this. I was convinced that would be the GOM storm that's currently TD 22.

Now that’s going to be Alpha....in September.

[Aric Dunn]

I did not expect Wilfred from this. I was convinced that would be the GOM storm that's currently TD 22.

it probably would have if recon did not get struck by lightning..

[aspen]

Now the big question that remains: will Wilfred live up to the reputation established by the other “Wil” storms of the Western Hemisphere? Or will it become another Josephine or Rene?

[northjaxpro]

It is just absolutely incredible that we are going to get quite deep into the Greek Alphabet with named storns in the coming weeks and we are still just getting over the middle of September! Just mindboggling this season for sure!