ATL: BETA - Models
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- Rgv20
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
12zGFS has TD22 really close to Brownsville by by late night Sunday
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Rgv20 wrote:12zGFS has TD22 really close to Brownsville by by late night Sunday
https://i.imgur.com/x2TB1JF.png
Yep, then scoots up to CC and stalls just offshore, before paralleling up the Texas coast as a strengthening hurricane. 985mb at hr 126
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
What a run from the 12z GFS, has a Tropical storm stall right off the coast and then run the entirety of the Texas coast as a developing hurricane.
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Direct hit: Francis '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05 Hermine '16 Michael '18
Outer bands: Katrina '05 Irma '17
Outer bands: Katrina '05 Irma '17
Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Does anyone know if there was some sort of coding change to the boards recently where some people can't see the in-post images in the replies?
Like model runs hosted by imgur, etc?
I used to be able to (like a week or 2 ago) and now it only shows up as the word "image" and nothing.
Like model runs hosted by imgur, etc?
I used to be able to (like a week or 2 ago) and now it only shows up as the word "image" and nothing.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
12z UKMET: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 94.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2020 0 22.8N 94.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2020 12 24.1N 92.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2020 24 25.5N 92.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.09.2020 36 25.2N 92.4W 1003 37
1200UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.3N 92.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 21.09.2020 60 24.7N 93.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.7N 94.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 84 25.7N 95.6W 996 42
1200UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 96.5W 991 50
0000UTC 23.09.2020 108 26.3N 96.8W 986 48
1200UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.1N 97.0W 990 44
0000UTC 24.09.2020 132 26.3N 96.6W 988 47
1200UTC 24.09.2020 144 26.9N 95.4W 982 55
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2020 0 22.8N 94.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2020 12 24.1N 92.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2020 24 25.5N 92.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.09.2020 36 25.2N 92.4W 1003 37
1200UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.3N 92.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 21.09.2020 60 24.7N 93.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.7N 94.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 84 25.7N 95.6W 996 42
1200UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 96.5W 991 50
0000UTC 23.09.2020 108 26.3N 96.8W 986 48
1200UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.1N 97.0W 990 44
0000UTC 24.09.2020 132 26.3N 96.6W 988 47
1200UTC 24.09.2020 144 26.9N 95.4W 982 55
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
12z GFS scraping Galveston at 979mb as it heads NE into same place where Laura hit. Given GFS's low resolution, this likely depicts a stronger hurricane than displayed. Not good.
Edit: Corrected 975 to 979
Edit: Corrected 975 to 979
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Rgv20
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Bad week for the Texas coast on the 12zGFS
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- Rgv20
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
South Texas Storms wrote:12z UKMET: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 94.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2020 0 22.8N 94.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2020 12 24.1N 92.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2020 24 25.5N 92.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.09.2020 36 25.2N 92.4W 1003 37
1200UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.3N 92.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 21.09.2020 60 24.7N 93.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.7N 94.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 84 25.7N 95.6W 996 42
1200UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 96.5W 991 50
0000UTC 23.09.2020 108 26.3N 96.8W 986 48
1200UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.1N 97.0W 990 44
0000UTC 24.09.2020 132 26.3N 96.6W 988 47
1200UTC 24.09.2020 144 26.9N 95.4W 982 55
Damn that would be a rough couple of days for Deep South Texas Coast and SPI
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- SouthernBreeze
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Senobia wrote:Does anyone know if there was some sort of coding change to the boards recently where some people can't see the in-post images in the replies?
Like model runs hosted by imgur, etc?
I used to be able to (like a week or 2 ago) and now it only shows up as the word "image" and nothing.
Image shows as a link for me, just click on it & image shows in new browser tab. That's in Brave browser
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My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
HWRF at 111 hours, drives it into Texas.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
HWRF ends its run deeper into Texas
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Then starts heading up the coast... very much like the GFS except the GFS stays a bit more offshore.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
UKMET 144 hours (12Z Thursday 09/24/20)
It has Beta still offshore the Texas Coast at 990 mb. Strong TS or borderline Cat 1.
It has Beta still offshore the Texas Coast at 990 mb. Strong TS or borderline Cat 1.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
The Euro shoots it off to the NE fast, between 120 and 144 hours.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
My gut tells me future Beta won’t make landfall
on Texas coast.
on Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Stormcenter wrote:My gut tells me future Beta won’t make landfall
on Texas coast.
Okay, well, maybe it can tell that to the models and persuade them.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Beta’s going to be headache, I have a feeling sally was just warmup for this forecasting nightmare. Small storm, erratic path, high ceiling, low probability of any given outcome
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
12Z Euro run
Total precip estimates
Total precip estimates
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M a r k
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