ATL: BETA - Models

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Rgv20
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#141 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:51 am

12zGFS has TD22 really close to Brownsville by by late night Sunday

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#142 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:04 am

Rgv20 wrote:12zGFS has TD22 really close to Brownsville by by late night Sunday

https://i.imgur.com/x2TB1JF.png

Yep, then scoots up to CC and stalls just offshore, before paralleling up the Texas coast as a strengthening hurricane. 985mb at hr 126
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#143 Postby TallahasseeMan » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:06 am

What a run from the 12z GFS, has a Tropical storm stall right off the coast and then run the entirety of the Texas coast as a developing hurricane.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#144 Postby Senobia » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:09 am

Does anyone know if there was some sort of coding change to the boards recently where some people can't see the in-post images in the replies?
Like model runs hosted by imgur, etc?
I used to be able to (like a week or 2 ago) and now it only shows up as the word "image" and nothing. :x
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#145 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:10 am

12z UKMET: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 94.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2020 0 22.8N 94.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2020 12 24.1N 92.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2020 24 25.5N 92.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.09.2020 36 25.2N 92.4W 1003 37
1200UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.3N 92.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 21.09.2020 60 24.7N 93.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.7N 94.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 84 25.7N 95.6W 996 42
1200UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 96.5W 991 50
0000UTC 23.09.2020 108 26.3N 96.8W 986 48
1200UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.1N 97.0W 990 44
0000UTC 24.09.2020 132 26.3N 96.6W 988 47
1200UTC 24.09.2020 144 26.9N 95.4W 982 55
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#146 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:12 am

12z GFS scraping Galveston at 979mb as it heads NE into same place where Laura hit. Given GFS's low resolution, this likely depicts a stronger hurricane than displayed. Not good.

Edit: Corrected 975 to 979
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#147 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:15 am

Bad week for the Texas coast on the 12zGFS :eek: :eek:

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#148 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:18 am

South Texas Storms wrote:12z UKMET: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 94.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2020 0 22.8N 94.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2020 12 24.1N 92.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2020 24 25.5N 92.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.09.2020 36 25.2N 92.4W 1003 37
1200UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.3N 92.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 21.09.2020 60 24.7N 93.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.7N 94.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 84 25.7N 95.6W 996 42
1200UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 96.5W 991 50
0000UTC 23.09.2020 108 26.3N 96.8W 986 48
1200UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.1N 97.0W 990 44
0000UTC 24.09.2020 132 26.3N 96.6W 988 47
1200UTC 24.09.2020 144 26.9N 95.4W 982 55


Damn that would be a rough couple of days for Deep South Texas Coast and SPI :eek:
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#149 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:06 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Bad week for the Texas coast on the 12zGFS :eek: :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/b2leD3I.png


It’s crazy how most of that stays offshore.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#150 Postby SouthernBreeze » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:11 pm

Senobia wrote:Does anyone know if there was some sort of coding change to the boards recently where some people can't see the in-post images in the replies?
Like model runs hosted by imgur, etc?
I used to be able to (like a week or 2 ago) and now it only shows up as the word "image" and nothing. :x

Image shows as a link for me, just click on it & image shows in new browser tab. That's in Brave browser
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#151 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:08 pm

HWRF at 111 hours, drives it into Texas.

Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#152 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:12 pm

Image

Euro makes landfall this time around
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#153 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:20 pm

HWRF ends its run deeper into Texas

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#154 Postby ATCcane » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:22 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/q9IyjfD.png

Euro makes landfall this time around



Then starts heading up the coast... very much like the GFS except the GFS stays a bit more offshore.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#155 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:29 pm

UKMET 144 hours (12Z Thursday 09/24/20)

It has Beta still offshore the Texas Coast at 990 mb. Strong TS or borderline Cat 1.


Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#156 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:35 pm

The Euro shoots it off to the NE fast, between 120 and 144 hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#157 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:51 pm

My gut tells me future Beta won’t make landfall
on Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#158 Postby Senobia » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:37 pm

Stormcenter wrote:My gut tells me future Beta won’t make landfall
on Texas coast.


Okay, well, maybe it can tell that to the models and persuade them.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#159 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:55 pm

Beta’s going to be headache, I have a feeling sally was just warmup for this forecasting nightmare. Small storm, erratic path, high ceiling, low probability of any given outcome
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

#160 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:58 pm

12Z Euro run
Image

Total precip estimates
Image
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