ATL: TEDDY - Models

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#401 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:35 pm

tomatkins wrote:Of the stall could happen a little further north just off shore and make things that much worse.


Maybe, but no indicators of that yet.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#402 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:21 pm

Euro once again with a landfall near Halifax, and again the main difference is a stronger ridge takes this inland immediately.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#403 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:27 pm

Euro East again, it's literally flip flopped with the GFS at this point.

Seems to really slow down as it nears land, unlikely the GFS/ICON who have it stalling, doing a loop offshore and burning out it's energy.

Going to be a close call, if we see another couple of ticks E Teddy could very well still go out to sea as well.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#404 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:32 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Euro East again, it's literally flip flopped with the GFS at this point.

Seems to really slow down as it nears land, unlikely the GFS/ICON who have it stalling, doing a loop offshore and burning out it's energy.

Going to be a close call, if we see another couple of ticks E Teddy could very well still go out to sea as well.


Latest UKMET still has Teddy meandering just near the vicinity of Nova Scotia in 144 hrs @ 988 mb.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#405 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:45 pm

The worst possible angle for a hit into Halifax is from the south-southeast. That would line up the storm surge perfectly for Halifax Harbour. That would be similar to, but a bit sharper than, the angle Juan hit. (Juan hit from due south)
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#406 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:42 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Euro East again, it's literally flip flopped with the GFS at this point.

Seems to really slow down as it nears land, unlikely the GFS/ICON who have it stalling, doing a loop offshore and burning out it's energy.

Going to be a close call, if we see another couple of ticks E Teddy could very well still go out to sea as well.


Latest UKMET still has Teddy meandering just near the vicinity of Nova Scotia in 144 hrs @ 988 mb.


Starting to get the impression Teddy will just be a typical moderate Nor' Easter for us here now. I was beginning to grow concerned but the trend from models is slower, weaker and further East.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#407 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:49 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Euro East again, it's literally flip flopped with the GFS at this point.

Seems to really slow down as it nears land, unlikely the GFS/ICON who have it stalling, doing a loop offshore and burning out it's energy.

Going to be a close call, if we see another couple of ticks E Teddy could very well still go out to sea as well.


Latest UKMET still has Teddy meandering just near the vicinity of Nova Scotia in 144 hrs @ 988 mb.


Starting to get the impression Teddy will just be a typical moderate Nor' Easter for us here now. I was beginning to grow concerned but the trend from models is slower, weaker and further East.


I wouldn't lower my guard. Model runs can be all over the place. The NHC track and impact graphics are far more accurate with these storms than is any model.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#408 Postby shaneomac » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:00 pm

Could be biblical to some areas of Nova Scotia if another Nudge East and a faster capture .. interesting .
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#409 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:02 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Latest UKMET still has Teddy meandering just near the vicinity of Nova Scotia in 144 hrs @ 988 mb.


Starting to get the impression Teddy will just be a typical moderate Nor' Easter for us here now. I was beginning to grow concerned but the trend from models is slower, weaker and further East.


I wouldn't lower my guard. Model runs can be all over the place. The NHC track and impact graphics are far more accurate with these storms than is any model.


To be fair the NHC has also lowered the intensity and now has it landfalling as an extratropical storm with winds of 65 MPH.

Eastern Nova Scotia/Newfoundland get ashed by storms stronger than that seemingly every winter. Unless things really change over the next day or two Teddy is likely to be moving too slow to be much stronger than that.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#410 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:11 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Starting to get the impression Teddy will just be a typical moderate Nor' Easter for us here now. I was beginning to grow concerned but the trend from models is slower, weaker and further East.


I wouldn't lower my guard. Model runs can be all over the place. The NHC track and impact graphics are far more accurate with these storms than is any model.


To be fair the NHC has also lowered the intensity and now has it landfalling as an extratropical storm with winds of 65 MPH.

Eastern Nova Scotia/Newfoundland get ashed by storms stronger than that seemingly every winter. Unless things really change over the next day or two Teddy is likely to be moving too slow to be much stronger than that.


I hope you're right, for your sake. Underestimate Teddy at your own risk. Dorian last year caused quite a bit of damage to the same general area as I recall.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#411 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:15 pm

For what it’s worth, the 18z para and 18z icon have shifted slightly west. Same with 12z CMC and euro. 18z gfs is largely unchanged from 12z, 18z HWRF and HMON are largely the same as well, although the HWRF is a little more perpendicular at landfall. We’ll see what 0z says. So far, doesn’t look like the worst storm that’s hit the area, but far from a non-event
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#412 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:53 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:For what it’s worth, the 18z para and 18z icon have shifted slightly west. Same with 12z CMC and euro. 18z gfs is largely unchanged from 12z, 18z HWRF and HMON are largely the same as well, although the HWRF is a little more perpendicular at landfall. We’ll see what 0z says. So far, doesn’t look like the worst storm that’s hit the area, but far from a non-event


The well-documented unpredictability of extratropical transition, especially when trough phasing or otherwise close interacting is involved, is what has me concerned. Hopefully, things will go as forecast.*crosses fingers* I can honestly say no one here on the Maine/New Brunswick coastal border (or a ways inland) is taking Teddy seriously expect myself and a neighbor three houses down (both of us are preppers).
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