ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[Ubuntwo]

Seems to be closed or close to it.
https://i.imgur.com/kyAWVzF.png

It does look like it is closed

We know it's closed per ASCAT:

Designation hinges on convective structure/tropicality.

[Iceresistance]

Seems to be closed or close to it.
https://i.imgur.com/kyAWVzF.png

It does look like it is closed

We know it's closed per ASCAT:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/766775073561640970/ascat_94L_barb_202010161359.png
Designation hinges on convective structure/tropicality.

ASCAT is showing 30 knots. (35 mph, Tropical Depression)

This system will be more like a Sub-Tropical Depression than a Tropical Depression since of the curved convection. Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha was nearly a TS before landfall over Portugal.

I noticed at least 2 circulations within the main one, the multiple circulations within the main circulation is the feature of this hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a non-tropical
low pressure system located about 550 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda continues to become better defined, and the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
organized. Additional development of this system is expected, and
a subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a non-tropical
low pressure system located about 550 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda continues to become better defined, and the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
organized. Additional development of this system is expected, and
a subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

And we have a code red

[plasticup]

60/70 feels right. If this continues we’ll have a subtropical depression by tomorrow.

[JRD]

It's now up to 70% in 2 days and 80% in 5 days.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about
500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Continued slow development
is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely
to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Iceresistance]

[Iceresistance]

60/70 feels right. If this continues we’ll have a subtropical depression by tomorrow.

Now 80/90

[Iceresistance]

The wind shear graphic will keep updating every 6 hours

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1317487842910736384

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about
500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development is
expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely
to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[plasticup]

So just waiting for that dry slot to wash out I guess?

[Jr0d]

Looking very close to being classified as the sun sets. I will be very surprised if it's not classfied by 11am tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
have shown little change in organization since earlier today.
Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or
storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the
low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[JRD]

Invest 94L right now has a barely (almost on the thin white border between warm and cold) warm core, which is also shallow and near the border between symmetric and asymmetric (though appreciably symmetric). It resembles a subtropical cyclone in convection organization, satellite appearance, and the shallow warm core.

[cycloneye]

Almost there if not already a STD.

 https://twitter.com/EdgeStorms/status/1317642461062303744

[underthwx]

Almost there if not already a STD.

https://twitter.com/EdgeStorms/status/1317642461062303744

Luis....where will this system likely track?......

[ElectricStorm]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
have not become significantly better organized over the past
several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical
depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or
two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[StrongWind]

Invest 94L right now has a barely (almost on the thin white border between warm and cold) warm core, which is also shallow and near the border between symmetric and asymmetric (though appreciably symmetric). It resembles a subtropical cyclone in convection organization, satellite appearance, and the shallow warm core.

How can I tell if a system is warm or cold core or borderline?