WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#101 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:43 am

Probrably underestimated?

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#102 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:54 am

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#103 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:19 am

Caving in to a more northern track instead?
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#104 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:21 am

Despite seemingly well-organised bandings on satellite, ASCAT finds an exposed center and some 30kt wind barbs to the north under the deep convection. This is consistent with earlier microwave imagery showing a bulk of displaced deep convection with a lack of curvature.

Assuming some undersampling (or the so-called ASCAT always runs below recon), one can reasonably make a case for a low-end tropical storm (this is what JTWC goes with at 12Z), but there is no evidence supporting anything higher than that.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#105 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:31 am

22W TWENTYTWO 201028 1200 16.6N 138.7E WPAC 35 1000
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

rileydoxsee98
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:19 am

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#106 Postby rileydoxsee98 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:48 am

It may take a day or two to get going. But once it does this could really ramp up fast if the JTWC is right about the environment. Low shear and 100+ OHC, plus models like the idea of this being a compact small core system. I wouldn’t be surprised if this significantly exceeded model expectations and forecasts. Imo, anything from a Cat 2 to a Cat 5 is possible with this. I’d say a 4 is probably the most likely for now tho. But I’ve seen this before, too many times.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#107 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:55 am

NotoSans wrote:Despite seemingly well-organised bandings on satellite, ASCAT finds an exposed center and some 30kt wind barbs to the north under the deep convection. This is consistent with earlier microwave imagery showing a bulk of displaced deep convection with a lack of curvature.

Assuming some undersampling (or the so-called ASCAT always runs below recon), one can reasonably make a case for a low-end tropical storm (this is what JTWC goes with at 12Z), but there is no evidence supporting anything higher than that.


You are right.

Zeta never got below 55 knots in the gulf yet ASCAT only found less than 45-50 knots. Recon...

Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#108 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:56 am

That’s a lotta OHC in Goni’s path :double:
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#109 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:25 am

Image

A cat 3 peak weakening down to a cat 1 before landfall? I don't think so.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#110 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:26 am

0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#111 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:42 am

euro6208 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/LCj2aAQ.gif

A cat 3 peak weakening down to a cat 1 before landfall? I don't think so.

Unless there’s a significant burst of shear just prior to landfall.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#112 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:43 am

What does the text say? Might be some reasoning in there.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#113 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:15 am

1900hurricane wrote:What does the text say? Might be some reasoning in there.

They’re expecting RI into a major as Goni tracks into an even warmer pocket of 31+ C SSTs, then weakening as shear increases to ~20 kt.

If Goni has a well-defined core as it tracks into the 30-31C pocket, 105 kt will be VERY conservative. It could blow up into a Super Typhoon very easily.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#114 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:05 am

aspen wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:What does the text say? Might be some reasoning in there.

They’re expecting RI into a major as Goni tracks into an even warmer pocket of 31+ C SSTs, then weakening as shear increases to ~20 kt.

If Goni has a well-defined core as it tracks into the 30-31C pocket, 105 kt will be VERY conservative. It could blow up into a Super Typhoon very easily.

Yeah, this one is very concerning to me...
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#115 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:35 pm

It's clearly not there yet, but the convection 22W is constantly shoving probably has the process of centralizing better well underway.

Image

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#116 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:31 pm

Named Goni. JMA keeps the storm at 85kt from Tau 72 to Tau 120 which doesn’t make much sense to me.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: GONI- Tropical Storm

#117 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:42 pm

TS 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 19:25 UTC, 28 October 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°40' (16.7°)
E138°05' (138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20' (16.3°)
E133°35' (133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 80 km (42 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E129°30' (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°00' (14.0°)
E124°55' (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 185 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E120°05' (120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50' (15.8°)
E115°00' (115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 650 km (340 NM)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI- Tropical Storm

#118 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:35 pm

Not surprised by this MW appearance. Goni is doing the same thing 12W did, so it really isn't a shock that the MW presentation is now similar too.

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: GONI- Tropical Storm

#119 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:04 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Not surprised by this MW appearance. Goni is doing the same thing 12W did, so it really isn't a shock that the MW presentation is now similar too.

https://i.imgur.com/iAz8qAF.jpg



I just looked at 12W's appearance but i think it was way too disorganized for comparison?

...unless you meant 21W lol
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: GONI- Tropical Storm

#120 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:08 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Not surprised by this MW appearance. Goni is doing the same thing 12W did, so it really isn't a shock that the MW presentation is now similar too.

https://i.imgur.com/iAz8qAF.jpg



I just looked at 12W's appearance but i think it was way too disorganized for comparison?

...unless you meant 21W lol

JTWC had stopped tracking it at that point, but it lit off some sustained convection and developed some decent structure before succumbing to the mid-latitudes.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2853842#p2853842
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2854259#p2854259
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests