2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[underthwx]

12z GFS has a November Greek Parade for the next two weeks. After Eta, it develops three new storms:
-Theta in the subtropical Atlantic within the next 4-7 days (has appeared on multiple other runs)
-Iota near the Lesser Antilles from a tropical wave next week
-Kappa in the Caribbean potentially starting as early as late next week (this is the Caribbean system the ensembles, GFS-Para, and ICON are showing)
https://i.imgur.com/FpajPHl.png
https://i.imgur.com/W0JlHxQ.png
https://i.imgur.com/9N4a6nI.png
https://i.imgur.com/wrIiURP.png
https://i.imgur.com/UudwVfB.png

You did your homework on this...good post

[aspen]

The Euro now shows the same Theta, Iota, and Kappa as the GFS has: Theta from the 0/20 AOI, Iota north of the Antilles from what seems to be an AEW, and Kappa in the Caribbean. Like the GFS, it’s showing some connection between Iota and Kappa that keeps the latter weak, but I wouldn’t be surprised if both models are overdoing the setup.

[CyclonicFury]

00Z UKMET now picking up on the potential next Caribbean system:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.8N 72.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2020 144 15.8N 72.0W 1005 34

[MetroMike]

Also to mention is the 0z CMC with a TC coming up north to Cuba around the 17th of Nov.

[aspen]

12z GFS is MUCH stronger with the next two systems than in previous runs. Theta becomes a moderate to strong TS, and Iota bombs out into a Category 4 in the medium-long range.

[cainjamin]

12z GFS is MUCH stronger with the next two systems than in previous runs. Theta becomes a moderate to strong TS, and Iota bombs out into a Category 4 in the medium-long range.

The 12Z GFS today has the potential Caribbean system not getting as tangled up with the tropical wave north of the Antilles, which looks to allow it to consolidate more. Eventually brings what looks to be a Category 4 into Belize.

[aspen]

18z GFS has STS Theta heading towards the Iberian Peninsula, then TS Iota forming in the Caribbean as early as 96 hours out, then another system apparently starting to form north of the Greater Antilles.

[aspen]

*looks at the long-range Caribbean hurricane in the long range GFS*

No. No more, 2020.

[mitchell]

Systems really pounding Centro this month. Next 10 days just about every corner of the region may get 10-20 inches of rain!

[tomatkins]

Systems really pounding Centro this month. Next 10 days just about every corner of the region may get 10-20 inches of rain!

https://i1.wp.com/www.mostoke.com/wp-content/uploads/hm_bbpui/75190/8mfxe5e26tfr6zzu53ozaul47o54e7i5.gif?w=730&ssl=1

Long range, the GFS-Para wants to take Iota on an Eta like wandering path into the Gulf.

[aspen]

12z GFS starts developing Kappa in the Caribbean between 192-210 hours out, because apparently this season wants to have hurricanes until 2021.

[LarryWx]

12z GFS starts developing Kappa in the Caribbean between 192-210 hours out, because apparently this season wants to have hurricanes until 2021.

18Z GEFS: this is for LATE Nov, folks!!

[underthwx]

12z GFS starts developing Kappa in the Caribbean between 192-210 hours out, because apparently this season wants to have hurricanes until 2021.

18Z GEFS: this is for LATE Nov, folks!!

https://i.imgur.com/tqFNgaY.png

Wow.... Hope that doesn't pan out..

[Fancy1001]

Icon has 98l stalled in place for a couple days starting Tuesday morning.

[SFLcane]

More coming!

[aspen]

Hi Kappa.

[NorthieStangl]

This is crazy. Having more than 3 tropical cyclones develop in November (Eta was named on the 1st) is unprecedented.

[Steve]

This is crazy. Having more than 3 tropical cyclones develop in November (Eta was named on the 1st) is unprecedented.

The whole season is pretty unprecedented. I realize that historically we only have a small amount of data relative to the Gulf being +/-300,000,000 years old. But in observed and recorded weather history, 2020 is something. MJO looks to go 8-1 and then drop into and stay in Phase 2 for a few days. However VP anomalies will become less favorable over the next two weeks. It’s kind of late in most seasons for a burst, but like we were saying, it’s a nuts year.

[aspen]

GFS has Kappa developing in the SWCar in just six days...
No stop it, no more.

[aspen]

Essentially an Otto 2.0 on the 12z GFS. Development appears to start as early as 120 hours out, so other models should start picking up on it, if it's legit.