2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[EquusStorm]

Incredibly, three November hurricanes is not unprecedented (2001) but multiple majors absolutely is, and multiple Caribbean hurricanes absolutely is as well. I'm so desensitized to absolutely ridiculous things this year that tracking the modeled Otto 2.0 is basically an 'oh ok, another' when in reality it's unprecedented to an absolutely phenomenal degree that all this is happening. Likely to tie the all time record for November genesis and perhaps break it; be very interesting to watch model trends to see if the progressive pattern that's been sweeping across the mid-latitudes is ever modeled to break down with blocking at any point because if that happens the mid-latitudes could go active as well. We would have probably had multiple storms up there if not for that pattern.

[aspen]

12z GFS still has Kappa in the SW Caribbean, and now it’s showing TS Lambda north of the Antilles next week. The Euro shows the same system.

[CrazyC83]

12z GFS still has Kappa in the SW Caribbean, and now it’s showing TS Lambda north of the Antilles next week. The Euro shows the same system.

At least Lambda would be a more "classic" late November storm.

[CyclonicFury]

The 12z ECMWF, as well as the ICON and NAVGEM models, have been hinting at the potential for a low pressure area to form near Bermuda early next week. It is unclear if it would develop tropical characteristics, though.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS. Off the coast of Portugal.

Uh..

[CyclonicFury]

LOL the 00z GFS has a TS make landfall in Morocco in early December

[CrazyC83]

LOL the 00z GFS has a TS make landfall in Morocco in early December

Not far off where a storm was in 2013. Or in November 2005 (Delta).

[supercane4867]

00z euro also shows 2 areas of interest into the first week of December

[RL3AO]

Just had a storm hit Somalia. Might as well add the western side of Africa to the list.

[CrazyC83]

GFS has a storm making landfall in Central America on December 8. That would be the epitome of insanity - a storm of tropical origins in December would be nearly unprecedented.

[AnnularCane]

GFS has a storm making landfall in Central America on December 8. That would be the epitome of insanity - a storm of tropical origins in December would be nearly unprecedented.

I forgot, what was the origin of Odette in 2003? I know she originated in the Caribbean, but I'm guessing not of tropical origin?

[Hurricanehink]

GFS has a storm making landfall in Central America on December 8. That would be the epitome of insanity - a storm of tropical origins in December would be nearly unprecedented.

Indeed "nearly" unprecedented. On December 12, 1887, a tropical storm struck Costa Rica. There are a few other cases of tropical origins in the Carib in December. In 2003, Tropical Storm Odette formed in the southwestern Carib and struck Haiti. In 1985, Tropical Depression Fifteen developed in the western Caribbean on December 7, and dissipated just north of Jamaica. On 11/25/1878, a tropical storm developed in the eastern Caribbean and lasted until December 2nd, dissipating south of Jamaica.

[supercane4867]

00z GFS

[AnnularCane]

GFS has a storm making landfall in Central America on December 8. That would be the epitome of insanity - a storm of tropical origins in December would be nearly unprecedented.

Indeed "nearly" unprecedented. On December 12, 1887, a tropical storm struck Costa Rica. There are a few other cases of tropical origins in the Carib in December. In 2003, Tropical Storm Odette formed in the southwestern Carib and struck Haiti. In 1985, Tropical Depression Fifteen developed in the western Caribbean on December 7, and dissipated just north of Jamaica. On 11/25/1878, a tropical storm developed in the eastern Caribbean and lasted until December 2nd, dissipating south of Jamaica.

Oh, maybe that answers my question.

[CrazyC83]

GFS has a storm making landfall in Central America on December 8. That would be the epitome of insanity - a storm of tropical origins in December would be nearly unprecedented.

I forgot, what was the origin of Odette in 2003? I know she originated in the Caribbean, but I'm guessing not of tropical origin?

I believe a weak tropical wave merged with an upper level trough there, so it did have some tropical origins. About the only one in the satellite era to do so. Olga 2007 was non-tropical (upper level low I believe).

[kevin]

A little bit of GFS ensemble activity around Costa Rica/Panama at ~190 hours, but nothing really significant for now. Will be interesting to see if it remains in the ensemble or moves forward in the timeframe.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

On the 12Z GFS the potential NE-Atlantic system meander for several days around Madeira and possibly transition to tropical storm from subtropical.

[kevin]

Quite a bit of CA activity in the 100 - 160 hour range, especially for an ensemble this late in the season. Looks like the disturbance that some of the models showed around Panama a few days ago has kept moving closer regarding the time frame and has shifted a bit further north. A few members strengthen to 970s/980s mbar before landfall, even though I think most members are at TS/TD level. Might become an AOI on the NHC page if it stays in the ensembles for another 1 - 2 days.

[chaser1]

Quite a bit of CA activity in the 100 - 160 hour range, especially for an ensemble this late in the season. Looks like the disturbance that some of the models showed around Panama a few days ago has kept moving closer regarding the time frame and has shifted a bit further north. A few members strengthen to 970s/980s mbar before landfall, even though I think most members are at TD/TD level. Might become an AOI on the NHC page if it stays in the ensembles for another 1 - 2 days.

https://imgur.com/L2TnQZc

And with the ensembles, now come the 12Z GFS becoming quite bullish on one more hurricane to add to this crazy season! This begins with a 1003mb low just north of Panama in 108 hours, and climaxing to a 984mb hurricane drifting westward and making landfall in S. Nicaragua at 168 hours. Wow, seems like Nicaragua is becoming the Louisiana of Central America

Edit: No other meaningful model support to back the GFS with exception to the GFS-Para which comes in weaker/slower. Will have to watch and see if model support gains or if the GFS ultimately drops this feature.

[tomatkins]

Quite a bit of CA activity in the 100 - 160 hour range, especially for an ensemble this late in the season. Looks like the disturbance that some of the models showed around Panama a few days ago has kept moving closer regarding the time frame and has shifted a bit further north. A few members strengthen to 970s/980s mbar before landfall, even though I think most members are at TD/TD level. Might become an AOI on the NHC page if it stays in the ensembles for another 1 - 2 days.

https://imgur.com/L2TnQZc

And with the ensembles, now come the 12Z GFS becoming quite bullish on one more hurricane to add to this crazy season! This begins with a 1003mb low just north of Panama in 108 hours, and climaxing to a 984mb hurricane drifting westward and making landfall in S. Nicaragua at 168 hours. Wow, seems like Nicaragua is becoming the Louisiana of Central America

Edit: No other meaningful model support to back the GFS with exception to the GFS-Para which comes in weaker/slower. Will have to watch and see if model support gains or if the GFS ultimately drops this feature.

The GFS seems to like to spin up the vorticity coming off of the Maracaibo region into real storms.