Texas Winter 2020-2021

[orangeblood]

Some good returns showing on radar to our northwest. Will it make it? Something to stay up for if it's even making it to the surface.

Seems to be dissipating about halfway thru Denton co.. North Fort Worth, North Tarrant will also be screwed on this one. The only way to rectify this is another event which dumps 10 inches on my area and an inch on everyone else, just because. And none for anyone south of Burleson and west of FW

Lol definitely one of the more frustrating winter storms I can remember for DFW folks, the model analyzing was even worse!! But now onto the next one....

One things we've been lacking so far this winter is Arctic Air, most of these cold spells are modified Canadian origin airmasses. It looks like that may change towards the 2nd half of January. The teleconnection indices are showing the EPO and WPO look like they may go negative in 7-10 days. This could finally begin setting the stage for Arctic HPs to influence our weather pattern across the lower 48. GEFS reflecting this in week 2

[wxman57]

Here's a link to snowfall reports across the state. Looks like the DFW area was too far north. About 1-5 inches in the Austin area, though.

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=10&lat=30.62&lon=-96.19&hr=24

[gboudx]

0Z GFS is interesting for next weekend

Let me go ahead and give a proactive congratulations for the next weekend snow to folks in Stephenville, Waco, Austin, Houston and down to Brownsville.

[BigB0882]

Can someone post the 0z GFS image for next weekend? Does this seem more promising for those a little south? Here in Baton Rouge we enjoyed a cold rain all night. Would love for that to have been snow, would have been a nice event.

[Portastorm]

0Z GFS is interesting for next weekend

Let me go ahead and give a proactive congratulations for the next weekend snow to folks in Stephenville, Waco, Austin, Houston and down to Brownsville.

I don't think you're going to miss anything. Just a cold rain down here.

Listen, 2021 is the year of the improbable. My Browns beat the Steelers last night, breaking all kinds of records for futility. The Longhorns men's basketball team is ranked in the top 5 and we got a multi-inch snowfall yesterday in Austin. DFW is next! Y'all will score this winter with a big storm. I know it!

[BigB0882]

And can someone share the link where the GFS data is shown by the hour through the 300 or so hour period. It shows precip, type of precip, temps, etc. I used to have it bookmarked and can't find it anymore! I don't even remember what the name was.

[gboudx]

0Z GFS is interesting for next weekend

Let me go ahead and give a proactive congratulations for the next weekend snow to folks in Stephenville, Waco, Austin, Houston and down to Brownsville.

I don't think you're going to miss anything. Just a cold rain down here.

Listen, 2021 is the year of the improbable. My Browns beat the Steelers last night, breaking all kinds of records for futility. The Longhorns men's basketball team is ranked in the top 5 and we got a multi-inch snowfall yesterday in Austin. DFW is next! Y'all will score this winter with a big storm. I know it!

I blame the DFW area posters here for posting they want snow. Clearly Mother Nature needs specifics. Don't just say you want snow; say you want multi-inch accumulating snow. Mother Nature isn't a mind reader.

[Brandon8181]

And can someone share the link where the GFS data is shown by the hour through the 300 or so hour period. It shows precip, type of precip, temps, etc. I used to have it bookmarked and can't find it anymore! I don't even remember what the name was.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

or

www.twisterdata.com

[rwfromkansas]

Some good returns showing on radar to our northwest. Will it make it? Something to stay up for if it's even making it to the surface.

Seems to be dissipating about halfway thru Denton co.. North Fort Worth, North Tarrant will also be screwed on this one. The only way to rectify this is another event which dumps 10 inches on my area and an inch on everyone else, just because. And none for anyone south of Burleson and west of FW

Lol definitely one of the more frustrating winter storms I can remember for DFW folks, the model analyzing was even worse!! But now onto the next one....

One things we've been lacking so far this winter is Arctic Air, most of these cold spells are modified Canadian origin airmasses. It looks like that may change towards the 2nd half of January. The teleconnection indices are showing the EPO and WPO look like they may go negative in 7-10 days. This could finally begin setting the stage for Arctic HPs to influence our weather pattern across the lower 48. GEFS reflecting this in week 2

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011106/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_12.png

Of course, then it will be too cold, and Abilene to Waco will get another 10 inches. DFW zero. Lol. It's either one extreme or another. Getting things to line up perfectly seems impossible.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z CMC seems to be hinting at the same storm next weekend as the gfs and gfs-p. Also, looks really good in the long range with a big spill of cold air riding a system down into western US. Seems to corroborate the GEFS.

[HockeyTx82]

How odd on the timing. One year ago today Ponder had that little snow storm that put down 4 inches. Moved from west to east in a very narrow band. It was a surprise snow that I think the HRRR picked up. It was great and thus far the only snow my 5 and 3 year old have seen. My OneDrive flashed up photos from 1 year ago today.

And below is the thread. Basically the areas that got dry slotted last night cashed in on the event and everyone else was left out.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=120302&start=1340

[JDawg512]

Here's a link to snowfall reports across the state. Looks like the DFW area was too far north. About 1-5 inches in the Austin area, though.

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=10&lat=30.62&lon=-96.19&hr=24

Thanks for posting that, I was pretty sure from my measurements that 2 inches fell here at the Rain Cave, that snowfall map confirms it.

[Ntxw]

Some good returns showing on radar to our northwest. Will it make it? Something to stay up for if it's even making it to the surface.

Seems to be dissipating about halfway thru Denton co.. North Fort Worth, North Tarrant will also be screwed on this one. The only way to rectify this is another event which dumps 10 inches on my area and an inch on everyone else, just because. And none for anyone south of Burleson and west of FW

Lol definitely one of the more frustrating winter storms I can remember for DFW folks, the model analyzing was even worse!! But now onto the next one....

One things we've been lacking so far this winter is Arctic Air, most of these cold spells are modified Canadian origin airmasses. It looks like that may change towards the 2nd half of January. The teleconnection indices are showing the EPO and WPO look like they may go negative in 7-10 days. This could finally begin setting the stage for Arctic HPs to influence our weather pattern across the lower 48. GEFS reflecting this in week 2

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011106/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_12.png

It's been well modeled we just haven't talked about. There is a SE ridge with the coming -EPO episode so the risk for an ice storm is elevated. it's going to lean more Nina like with the dagger cold in the middle of the country and Rockies. Perhaps the persistent -AO will assist with deeper cold for more opportunities of snow.

[Haris]

Few more I wanted to post

[Portastorm]

Ntxw and orangeblood -- two of our most astute winter weather folks -- are right about the pattern later in January into February. Pretty much everyone (pro mets who watch long range patterns) nationally saying the same. Pattern change upcoming and a much colder one at that. There will be other opportunities for Texas and the Metroplex.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ensembles 10+ days out looks very promising.

[Ralph's Weather]

Seems to be dissipating about halfway thru Denton co.. North Fort Worth, North Tarrant will also be screwed on this one. The only way to rectify this is another event which dumps 10 inches on my area and an inch on everyone else, just because. And none for anyone south of Burleson and west of FW

Lol definitely one of the more frustrating winter storms I can remember for DFW folks, the model analyzing was even worse!! But now onto the next one....

One things we've been lacking so far this winter is Arctic Air, most of these cold spells are modified Canadian origin airmasses. It looks like that may change towards the 2nd half of January. The teleconnection indices are showing the EPO and WPO look like they may go negative in 7-10 days. This could finally begin setting the stage for Arctic HPs to influence our weather pattern across the lower 48. GEFS reflecting this in week 2

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011106/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_12.png

It's been well modeled we just haven't talked about. There is a SE ridge with the coming -EPO episode so the risk for an ice storm is elevated. it's going to lean more Nina like with the dagger cold in the middle of the country and Rockies. Perhaps the persistent -AO will assist with deeper cold for more opportunities of snow.

This will end up ending the wet period though, correct?

[Cpv17]

Ensembles 10+ days out looks very promising.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011106/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_46.png

Damn!

[rwfromkansas]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a little SE ridge can be good. Just don't want a big ridge close by, as that's when we have issues with ice. It would figure that we would finally get a track perfect for DFW and it would be an ice storm. Lol.

[Brandon8181]

Icon showing alittle snow in the 6-10 day outlook in the hill country. Worth watching.