5-year Cat 5 Streak in Atlantic Basin?

[Category5Kaiju]

So as some wx enthusiasts and meteorologists may have noticed (including myself), ever since 1924 when the first Cat 5 was documented in the Atlantic, there has been a 5-year streak from 2016-2020 with a total of 7 Cat 5s. The last Cat 5 year before 2016 was 2007 (so it has been a while), and the only other lengthy Cat 5 streak I could find in the historical database was 2003-2005 (only 3 years though). Other than that, Cat 5s have only occurred in isolated years or in doubles (like 1932-1933, 1979-1980, or 1988-1989). This recent pattern in my opinion is quite shocking, concerning, yet confusing at the same time.

As a topic of discussion, I would like to ask others' opinions or thoughts on why all of a sudden since 2016 there has been an unrelenting onslaught of Cat 5s and for how long conceivably this pattern could continue beyond 2020? I personally have little clue if this is just very bad luck or if the Atlantic is actually undergoing some climatological shift that is allowing for storms to be more intense and impactful. Thanks!

[MarioProtVI]

I would consider it 4 years as I don’t think Matthew was a C5 (maybe it was very briefly) but the data suggests 155 mph. So 2017 to 2020. However the amount of years we’ve had storms of at least 155 mph (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020) is quite stunning.

[CyclonicFury]

I agree about Matthew as it was upgraded to a Category 5 based on a 143 knot SFMR value, before the reliability of SFMRs was called into question. Blending flight-level and SFMR winds for Matthew supports an intensity of about 130-135 knots.

Michael and Iota were borderline but I do think they made it.

[Ptarmigan]

I think a 5 year or greater streak of Category 5 hurricane is likely. I can imagine it happening before satellite.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If we had data during the 1770s-1780s, i believe 1779-1781 each had cat 5s.

[Fancy1001]

I'm pretty sure these CAT5 streaks would be more common if we had kept the original designation for category 5 as 155 and above instead of changing it to 157.

[CrazyC83]

I agree about Matthew as it was upgraded to a Category 5 based on a 143 knot SFMR value, before the reliability of SFMRs was called into question. Blending flight-level and SFMR winds for Matthew supports an intensity of about 130-135 knots.

Michael and Iota were borderline but I do think they made it.

I think that Matthew will get dropped to about 130 kt later (which is what a blend of the data supported at that time). Michael and Iota were definitely C5 at their peak.

[ncforecaster89]

I'm pretty sure these CAT5 streaks would be more common if we had kept the original designation for category 5 as 155 and above instead of changing it to 157.

The NHC has always used knots to set a particular TCs intensity. They use “mph” in the public advisories, but it has no bearing on categorization. Moreover, the old SSHS began Cat 5 designation at an equivalent of 156 mph and above. 155 mph has always been a Cat 4.

That said, I’m very confident the current Cat five streak has occurred in the not too distant past...prior to such extensive Recon & satellite observations.