Discussion About Changing the Start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to May (15th)

[CyclonicFury]

Well, we already had TS Bertha, and there's already another invest in the Atlantic and it's not even June 1 yet.

NHC previously seemed very hesitant to consider extending the season, but before Arthur formed, Dennis Feltgen seemed to suggest they were at least considering the idea:

Meanwhile, hurricane center spokesman Dennis Feltgen told USA TODAY that a named storm has formed between May 15 and May 30 in about half of the past 10 to 15 years, according to National Hurricane Center data."But, (the center) is also aware of the lack of any such activity during the second half of May in the preceding 30 years," Feltgen said in an email.

The hurricane center "is weighing the potential advantages and disadvantages of changing the official start date of the Atlantic hurricane season based on the possibility that the recent uptick in late May storms will continue," he said.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 190356002/

[Hurricanehink]

This might influence whether May 15 to 31st should be part of the season. Recent storms forming in that time period (Arthur 08, Beryl 12, Bonnie 16, Alberto 18) caused $203 million in damage and 32 deaths. That's not nothing. Would similar storms have gotten the same media and government attention if they were in season? If some beaches are only guarded during hurricane season, then I can see the advantage of raising more awareness to these relatively common pre-season storm. Adding a few more storms, there was Tropical Depression One in 1988 and 1993, which killed 37 and 20 people respectively, all in Cuba. Subtropical Storm Alpha in 1972 killed people and struck Georgia. Hurricane Alma in 1970 killed 8 in the western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Arlene in 1959 killed one person, and Alice in 1953 killed six. Hurricane Able in 1951 moved near Florida, The Bahamas, and North Carolina. A storm in 1948 killed 80 people when it struck the Dominican Republic. The nicknamed Hurricane Amanda in 1863 killed 110 people when it struck Florida as a Category 2 hurricane. A late May hurricane in 1825 killed 7 people.

That's 293 deaths from storms from May 15 to the 31st. That doesn't mean that any time of year with deadly storms should be a part of the season. Of the off-season hurricanes, the May ones were in the 2nd half of the month.

[CyclonicFury]

This might influence whether May 15 to 31st should be part of the season. Recent storms forming in that time period (Arthur 08, Beryl 12, Bonnie 16, Alberto 18) caused $203 million in damage and 32 deaths. That's not nothing. Would similar storms have gotten the same media and government attention if they were in season? If some beaches are only guarded during hurricane season, then I can see the advantage of raising more awareness to these relatively common pre-season storm. Adding a few more storms, there was Tropical Depression One in 1988 and 1993, which killed 37 and 20 people respectively, all in Cuba. Subtropical Storm Alpha in 1972 killed people and struck Georgia. Hurricane Alma in 1970 killed 8 in the western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Arlene in 1959 killed one person, and Alice in 1953 killed six. Hurricane Able in 1951 moved near Florida, The Bahamas, and North Carolina. A storm in 1948 killed 80 people when it struck the Dominican Republic. The nicknamed Hurricane Amanda in 1863 killed 110 people when it struck Florida as a Category 2 hurricane. A late May hurricane in 1825 killed 7 people.

That's 293 deaths from storms from May 15 to the 31st. That doesn't mean that any time of year with deadly storms should be a part of the season. Of the off-season hurricanes, the May ones were in the 2nd half of the month.

Something I don't understand is, why is June officially part of the CPAC season when that month has only had one TC in the basin, and it was a crossover from the EPAC? The CPAC in June is usually far too cool to support systems developing near the Hawaiian Islands. Most systems in the CPAC weaken significantly or turn away before they reach Hawaii regardless. I think a May 15 start date for the Atlantic makes sense. FWIW, most Southern Hemisphere basins start in November, which is equivalent to May in the Northern Hemisphere.

[CrazyC83]

If I proposed dates, would May 1 to December 5 be a good period? That would be for both the Atlantic and EPAC.

[CyclonicFury]

If I proposed dates, would May 1 to December 15 be a good period? That would be for both the Atlantic and EPAC.

FWIW, only one true TC has formed in the May 1-14 timeframe over the Atlantic since 1981: Ana (2015). December has been dead every year since 2014 in the Atlantic, and I don't think there has been a December EPAC TC since Winnie (1983).

[crownweather]

Personally, I'd be in favor of making the Atlantic season start on May 15. There is evidence in the NHC data that there is a small peak of storms around May 15-20 or so based on the 100 year history. Personally, all of our regular tropical weather discussions have begun being sent out between the May 10 to May 20 time frame for the past 10 years or so. This year may have been one the earliest starts to us sending out our discussions (April 24).

If NHC decided to start even earlier say May 1 instead of June 1, that'd be okay with me too.

[TheStormExpert]

If I proposed dates, would May 1 to December 15 be a good period? That would be for both the Atlantic and EPAC.

But we rarely get storms in the Atlantic during the month of December. May storms have become a common thing for the nearly decade. So the Atlantic Hurricane Season lasting from May 1st through November 30th seems like a good idea.

[chaser1]

If I proposed dates, would May 1 to December 15 be a good period? That would be for both the Atlantic and EPAC.

But we rarely get storms in the Atlantic during the month of December. May storms have become a common thing for the nearly decade. So the Atlantic Hurricane Season lasting from May 1st through November 30th seems like a good idea.

Yup, that sums it up for me as well.

[HurricaneEnzo]

My opinion is the same as when I originally posted this. I think you bump it up to May 1st or May 15th. Yes storms can form at anytime as we have seen with storms like Alex but 60% of Mays last decade featured development. Looks like we will be continuing that trend this decade. No other 'out of season' month can come close to that.

I also know to weather enthusiast and meteorologist it is pretty much 'meaningless'. But I feel for the general public it could help raise awareness. People that have never dealt with tropical systems move to the beach everyday in large numbers could be good for them. Plus this board will come to life 2 weeks to a month earlier than usual

[TheStormExpert]

If I proposed dates, would May 1 to December 15 be a good period? That would be for both the Atlantic and EPAC.

But we rarely get storms in the Atlantic during the month of December. May storms have become a common thing for the nearly decade. So the Atlantic Hurricane Season lasting from May 1st through November 30th seems like a good idea.

Yup, that sums it up for me as well.

Yeah the last time we saw an actual named storm form in December was TS Olga back in 2007. Unless you want to consider the Unnamed STS in 2013.

[beoumont]

I forget what year it changed; but back in the 1950s or 1960 or so, the "formal" NHC hurricane season changed to June 1-Nov 30.

Before that it was June 15 - Nov15.

The reason given back then was a fiscal year (half year in this case) government budgeting and budget request factor. Making the season exactly 6 months (50% of a fiscal year) made it a simpler for budgeting requests and NWS scheduling of resources; as mentioned by another poster above.

[SoupBone]

I have to bump this thread. I get that in the grand span of the age of this planet, we still know very little about the weather.

But it already seems like we're in peak season, potent CV systems (Invest 92L), SAL wanning, etc. a whopping month before it even starts. I know we can also have hyperactive seasons and maybe that's just it, but it seems like a whole lot of anedotal stuff happening that makes it surely feel like peak season came early this year.

[Do_For_Love]

I think they should change it to May. Almost every season has had a preseason storm since 2012, so there's evidence of a trend going on. The fact that there were barely any in the 30 years prior indicates that something has changed and strengthens the argument that the season should move up. It's not just an active season thing either since 2015 had one and is considered a "below average" year.

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion about starting the North Atlantic season on par with EPAC on May 15th. Let's do a poll. Poll with close on March 8 at 3:22 PM EST.

I say yes.

[crownweather]

I am a hard "yes" on moving the start date of the Hurricane Season to May 15.

I'll play "devil's advocate" and stir things up a little though - Why not do away with the term "Hurricane Season" all together & just have NHC TWOs year-round. We do sometimes see tropical and sub-tropical systems form outside of "the regular hurricane season". SPC already issues daily severe weather outlooks year-round because there's no such thing as an official severe weather season. Weather phenomena should never be put inside of a box as it sometimes occurs outside of that box.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm mixed on whether or not to move the start date up to May 15.
We are on an impressive 6 year streak of tropical storm activity in May. However... In the grand scheme of things, I think they could wait a few more years before pulling the trigger. I mean, what if they switch it and then we go on a big stormless May streak? The +AMO phase has been ongoing since 1995, so it will probably end sometime this decade. That being said, I would imagine there won't much action in May once that happens.
So basically I'm neutral lol

[AnnularCane]

If they change the date that will really mess up my countdown.

They probably wouldn't consider that as a reason not to do it though. I would kind of prefer that they at least wait till next year, if they must. But yeah, just watch them change the date and then go the next ten years with no preseason storms.

[ClarCari]

Hard yes.

Okay so about the AMO discussion. It seems to me that even before 1995 there likely may have been many seasons with pre-season activity at similar rates to today, just that our technology and research at the time didn’t identify or recognize systems as such back then. As the HURDAT database gets updated over time and we review past seasons, I truly believe more and more pre-June storms will
be discovered.
I believe the AMO has more to do with other conditions in the ATL and not necessarily timing of cyclone genesis.

And alot of these May storms have been spinning up close to land and hard to predict for the NHC and they are hopeful that by extending the season and TWO’s that they can provide better forecasting to the public which is the far more important reason why the season should start earlier.

[mitchell]

The data would seem to clearly justify it.

[MGC]

NHC should not name marginal or questionable systems......MGC