2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[JetFuel_SE]

Just saw this video on YouTube. Hypothetical 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. I counted about 44 named storms. Used the entire supplementary list. Two Cat 5s into SE Florida and one Cat 3 into SW Florida peninsula. Uh oh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udh_Jn7nZZs&t=339s

Those videos aren't really serious predictions. Only an uber weenie would even think about predicting that many storms, which would beat the 1964 WPAC season by 4 or 5 storms.

[wxman57]

Just saw this video on YouTube. Hypothetical 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. I counted about 44 named storms. Used the entire supplementary list. Two Cat 5s into SE Florida and one Cat 3 into SW Florida peninsula. Uh oh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udh_Jn7nZZs&t=339s

Those videos aren't really serious predictions. Only an uber weenie would even think about predicting that many storms, which would beat the 1964 WPAC season by 4 or 5 storms.

Of course they're not real predictions.

[Category5Kaiju]

Btw Accuweather recently came out with their prediction for this season and are calling for 16-20 NSs, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major. If the conditions are ripe and La Nina makes a comeback later this season, what concerns me is that Kottlowski even mentioned that seeing more than 20 named storms would not be out of question, and it could even be possible that we may need to use the supplementary list (or basically go into the Greek letters again right after another year that did so, which would be unprecedented). Now we still are ways away, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on

[InfernoFlameCat]

Although that would be pretty cool, I hope that does not happen because Florida has a target on its back so more storms means a greater likelyhood of impact. However if there are a lot of storms it could strengthen the Bermuda high and force storms farther west.

[SFLcane]

If the CFS is right Florida could have a nasty season. We may not be so lucky this go around

[aspen]

If the CFS is right Florida could have a nasty season. We may not be so lucky this go around

https://i.imgur.com/djxgoCI.jpg

If it’s right, the WCar Caribbean won’t be nearly as friendly for big storms as last year — great news for Central America. That doesn’t exclude long-trackers from the MDR making their way into the Caribbean, though.

[Category5Kaiju]

This may be one of those seasons where many storms go out to sea and recurve but the select few that do manage to make their way to the Western Atlantic will be very strong. Hopefully not though but that image looks like that may be a possibility

[Kingarabian]

Here's the new Canadian monthly:

ASO VP200:


ASO Atlantic rainfall:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Here's the new Canadian monthly:

ASO VP200:
https://i.imgur.com/cN0jEcB.png

ASO Atlantic rainfall:
https://i.imgur.com/7TO3F9t.png

I know it's generally not the best idea to try and decipher tracks with precip anoms on the models (individual storms are too small-scale to be accurately depicted) but I suppose this is sort of what I see for the September forecast period:


I guess it's a bit reminiscent of -NAO with the recurves - I know it's a little hard to tell since the signal isn't extremely well defined. But it would definitely be a welcome sight after all the strikes last year. But of course exact details on steering cannot be diagnosed this early and this far out since subseasonal features like that can vary greatly.

[toad strangler]

Here's the new Canadian monthly:

ASO VP200:
https://i.imgur.com/cN0jEcB.png

ASO Atlantic rainfall:
https://i.imgur.com/7TO3F9t.png

I know it's generally not the best idea to try and decipher tracks with precip anoms on the models (individual storms are too small-scale to be accurately depicted) but I suppose this is sort of what I see for the September forecast period:
https://i.ibb.co/ng6CTjf/apriltracks.png

I guess it's a bit reminiscent of -NAO with the recurves - I know it's a little hard to tell since the signal isn't extremely well defined. But it would definitely be a welcome sight after all the strikes last year. But of course exact details on steering cannot be diagnosed this early and this far out since subseasonal features like that can vary greatly.

Climo Climo Climo!

[wxman57]

The MDR (east Caribbean to Africa south of 18N) isn't looking like it will have a very favorable environment again this year. Storms may struggle until they reach the western Caribbean, as they did last year.

[Gums]

Salute!

With the La Nina, usually not good for the Gulf, but something seems awry so far this spring.

I go with Aspen for numbers and paths.

East coast of U.S. will bear the brunt once into full season, but I can see a storm in the Gulf early.

Gums sends...
According to Einstein and Yogi Berra, predictions are hard...especially about the future

[Iceresistance]

Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

[NotSparta]

Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Nope, that very rarely happens. It's like expecting a season to be 2005

[SFLcane]

Holy moly!

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1377983657223327748

[cycloneye]

The January CanSIPS is about as favorable of a look as you can get. Thankfully, it's only New Year's Day, so this likely won't verify. Hopefully it trends to a less favorable look over the coming months.

https://i.imgur.com/Wg5yfVm.png
https://i.imgur.com/uWaR5ul.png
https://i.imgur.com/3AC7wyR.png
https://i.imgur.com/cIrp3F7.png

Now in April the change is notable for a dry western caribbean but we are in the SB so let's see after that passes how this and other models do.

[aspen]

Holy moly!

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1377983657223327748?

I should’ve waited to post my first preliminary season estimates lol.

Taking into account this velocity potential map and the moisture forecast map, it looks like this could be a serious MDR year. A velocity potential like that would result in a bonkers AEW train, and if 2020’s problems don’t come back again (large waves that have trouble consolidating and a typhoon-pumped TUTT), I can definitely see a greater frequency of high-ACE Cape Verde storms like in 2010 and 2011.

Interestingly, the EPac looks kinda decent, so less suppressive anomalies and potentially a weaker -ENSO could lead to a slightly more active year than 2020. But then again, 2020’s EPac ACE is a low bar.

[ElectricStorm]

Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Another year, another 2013 post... Never fails
(No offense btw, I just find it amusing)

[cycloneye]

Holy moly!

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1377983657223327748?

I should’ve waited to post my first preliminary season estimates lol.

Taking into account this velocity potential map and the moisture forecast map, it looks like this could be a serious MDR year. A velocity potential like that would result in a bonkers AEW train, and if 2020’s problems don’t come back again (large waves that have trouble consolidating and a typhoon-pumped TUTT), I can definitely see a greater frequency of high-ACE Cape Verde storms like in 2010 and 2011.

Interestingly, the EPac looks kinda decent, so less suppressive anomalies and potentially a weaker -ENSO could lead to a slightly more active year than 2020. But then again, 2020’s EPac ACE is a low bar.

You can change the numbers anytime in preliminary status.

[JetFuel_SE]

Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Wishful thinking won't work, sadly.