https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
AL, 92, 2021080512, , BEST, 0, 115N, 105W, 20, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, SPAWNINVEST, al772021 to al922021,
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Can we merge the tropical wave thread with this one?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
As mentioned previously, the monsoonal trough will likely ensure that 92L will eject too far north to affect additional land masses beyond the CV islands. The EPS, while imperfect, tends to handle low-level subtleties better than the GEFS. Of the 06Z GEFS, the strongest members suggest a track southwest of the CV islands, whereas the strongest members of the 00Z EPS suggest a counterclockwise veering northward toward the CV islands. The GEFS tends to underestimate the influence of the monsoonal trough on the evolution and track of nascent vortices.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Oh boy, another 92L. This is gonna be a fun ride.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Shell Mound wrote:As mentioned previously, the monsoonal trough will likely ensure that 92L will eject too far north to affect additional land masses beyond the CV islands. The EPS, while imperfect, tends to handle low-level subtleties better than the GEFS. Of the 06Z GEFS, the strongest members suggest a track southwest of the CV islands, whereas the strongest members of the 00Z EPS suggest a counterclockwise veering northward toward the CV islands. The GEFS tends to underestimate the influence of the monsoonal trough on the evolution and track of nascent vortices.
The ridge will prevent that. Also why the Nhc has the development region for this system heading west-wnw. Irma may have a little brother here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Shell Mound wrote:As mentioned previously, the monsoonal trough will likely ensure that 92L will eject too far north to affect additional land masses beyond the CV islands. The EPS, while imperfect, tends to handle low-level subtleties better than the GEFS. Of the 06Z GEFS, the strongest members suggest a track southwest of the CV islands, whereas the strongest members of the 00Z EPS suggest a counterclockwise veering northward toward the CV islands. The GEFS tends to underestimate the influence of the monsoonal trough on the evolution and track of nascent vortices.
The ridge will prevent that. Also why the Nhc has the development region for this system heading west-wnw. Irma may have a little brother here.
Not much of a ridge for a moderate tropical storm. If it stays week or doesn't develop then I *think* it goes west.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
In terms of track, the wave has not even hit water, so I would be hesistant on saying that it will definitively be OTS or a land-impacter at this point in point. Maybe tomorrow or the day after we'll have a better idea?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
The dreaded 92L.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Shell Mound wrote:As mentioned previously, the monsoonal trough will likely ensure that 92L will eject too far north to affect additional land masses beyond the CV islands. The EPS, while imperfect, tends to handle low-level subtleties better than the GEFS. Of the 06Z GEFS, the strongest members suggest a track southwest of the CV islands, whereas the strongest members of the 00Z EPS suggest a counterclockwise veering northward toward the CV islands. The GEFS tends to underestimate the influence of the monsoonal trough on the evolution and track of nascent vortices.
The ridge will prevent that. Also why the Nhc has the development region for this system heading west-wnw. Irma may have a little brother here.
There’s 0 comparisons to Irma. Plenty of dry and stable air will hamper development though we might be able To squeeze a short lived TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Just because 92L might struggle over the next 5-7 days doesn’t mean that it can’t find a better environment further west if it survives. Storms like Bertha ‘96, Fran, Dean, and Paulette remained at TD/TS intensity for days in the MDR and didn’t reach hurricane intensity until past 55-60W; Fran didn’t even reach TS status until several days after initially forming. In terms of timing and the currently modeled track, Felix ‘95 seems like a decent potential analog, and it also stayed as a weak TS for several days in the MDR. We shouldn’t expect any storm going crazy this east in the MDR until late August at the earliest; storms that reached hurricane intensity east of 35W like Irma and Helene didn’t form until deeper in peak season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
This might become the earliest Cape Verde storm since Tropical Storm Dorian (2013).
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I know there are some comparisons being brought up with Irma, but in actuality, if you really look at it, a 37-hour Cat 5 that also basically remained a major hurricane from near the Cape Verde islands all the way up until Cuba? Not quite sure about that
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
All I am referring to with Invest 92L and Irma is the track. At least initially.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
InfernoFlameCat wrote:All I am referring to with Invest 92L and Irma is the track. At least initially.
Irma formed just west of Cape Verde at about 16N. 92L is coming off much lower, around 11-12N. The only similarity is that the wave came off of Africa, which of course is the case with all tropical waves.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
wx98 wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:All I am referring to with Invest 92L and Irma is the track. At least initially.
Irma formed just west of Cape Verde at about 16N. 92L is coming off much lower, around 11-12N. The only similarity is that the wave came off of Africa, which of course is the case with all tropical waves.
Irma was strange in how quickly it developed and became a major — just two days after making splashdown — while being rather far north. This year’s MDR temps should prevent something like that from happening, and like I said before, it’s too early for a very strong storm in the eastern MDR.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1423314197878878217
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423315671564304390
https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1423307340183445506
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423315671564304390
https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1423307340183445506
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Orange now.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected
to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau
later tonight. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands
by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected
to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau
later tonight. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands
by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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