ATL: MINDY - Advisories

[AlphaToOmega]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 082053
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021
2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 86.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...CENTER OF MINDY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 85.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Mindy is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a northeast to
east-northeast motion is expected to continue over the next several
days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to
cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle during the next hour or
two, then cross portions of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern
Georgia tonight. Mindy is then expected to move offshore of the
southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes
landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
manly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours,
NOAA buoy 42039 reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a
wind gust of 54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
NOAA buoy 42039 reported a minimum pressure of 1006.5 mb (29.72) as
the center passed nearby,


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later this evening and tonight.

TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of
the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Mindy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
815 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...CENTER OF MINDY MAKES LANDFALL AT ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA...

National Weather Service Doppler radar data and surface
observations indicate that the center of Mindy has made landfall
over St. Vincent Island, Florida.

The Tyndall Air Force Base tower south of Apalachicola, Florida,
recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a wind
gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m).


SUMMARY OF 815 PM CDT...0115 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 85.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 84.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Gulf
coast west of Indian pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 84.5 West. Mindy is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and an
east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is
expected to move along the coastline of Apalachee Bay for the next
few hours, then move across the northern Florida Peninsula and
southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic by tomorrow morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an
area of unfavorable upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. The Tyndall Air Force Base
tower south of Apalachicola recently reported sustained winds of 49
mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation
of 115 ft (35 m). In addition, there are multiple reports of wind
gusts near 55 mph (89 km/h) from St. George Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and
South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce
isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later this evening and tonight.
Tropical-storm force winds may occur near the center of Mindy over
portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north
Florida and far south Georgia through tomorrow morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that the
center of Mindy made landfall over St. Vincent Island, Florida,
near 0115 UTC. Since that time, the center has been moving along
the shoreline of Apalachee Bay. The intensity is held at 40 kt
based on continuity from earlier buoy data and a 43-kt wind at an
elevated tower south of Apalachicola. The central pressure has
been lowered to 1002 mb based on surface obs from the Apalachicola
area. It should be noted that while Mindy is not well organized in
satellite imagery, but it has a good radar presentation.

The initial motion is 055/17. A general east-northeastward motion
should continue for the next 24 h or so as Mindy moves along the
southern edge of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the
eastern United States. After that, a decrease in forward speed and
a more eastward motion are expected as the aforementioned trough
moves away from Mindy and the cyclone becomes vertically shallow.
The forecast track keeps the center along the Gulf coast for a few
more hours, followed by a motion across northern Florida and
southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is
a little faster than the previous forecast.

Little change in strength is likely during the next few hours while
the center of Mindy straddles the coast. Weakening should occur as
the center moves farther inland later tonight, aided by an increase
in westerly vertical wind shear. By the time the cyclone reaches
the Atlantic, the shear should be strong enough to make the system
continue to weaken. The new intensity forecast is a little
stronger than the previous forecast during the first 12 h, then is
similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to
dissipate after 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from
the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South
Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce
isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in
portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible across
portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia
near the center of Mindy.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 29.9N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of
Mindy has recently moved offshore the coast of Georgia. Buoy
41008 located off the Georgia coast recently recorded 1-min
sustained winds of 29 kt with gusts as high as 33 kt. Thus, 30 kt
is maintained as the intensity for this advisory.

Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly
vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to
become even stronger. The strong shear should prevent
restrengthening and is likely to strip away any remaining convection
by Friday or Friday night. Mindy is forecast to become
post-tropical Friday evening. Most of the global models suggest
that the cyclone will open up into a trough in 36-48 h, but it is
possible this could happen sooner, as surface observations already
show that easterly winds on the north side have become quite weak.
The NHC forecast calls for dissipation Friday night, which is sooner
than the previous advisory.

Mindy continues moving quickly to the east-northeast or 065/18 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is
forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed
for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough
moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to
lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The
main adjustment to the NHC track is to show a slightly faster motion
toward the east-northeast at the 24-36 h points.

Key Messages:

1. Mindy will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of
coastal South Carolina through early this afternoon. This rainfall
may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 31.5N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 32.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 33.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 34.3N 70.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been
devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged
over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to
the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends
northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a
large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and
surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less
well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north
side.

Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly
vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to
become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become
post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based
on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it
is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than
forecast.

Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a
motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast
philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward
at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a
deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the
trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little
on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster
than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial
position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 32.0N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...MINDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy
was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29
mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a
gradual slowdown until the system dissipates Friday night or
Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening of the winds is expected before the system
dissipates.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Papin

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