ATL: PETER - Models

[Nancy Smar]

Only model runs here.

[chris_fit]

00Z EPS @ 10 Days

[abajan]

Interesting slight dip towards the Leeward Islands:

[cycloneye]

* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952021 09/13/21 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 28 34 40 47 51 56 63 68 70 69 67 66
V (KT) LAND 20 25 25 26 28 32 38 44 51 55 60 67 72 74 73 71 70
V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 49 55 59 57 51 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 22 20 19 14 16 15 16 11 11 12 6 2 13 22 28 33 37
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 3 1 4 2 2 2 4 5 6 -1 3 8 16 15
SHEAR DIR 77 78 81 66 51 45 83 133 90 92 69 333 247 239 221 206 206
SST (C) 27.7 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 134 139 132 130 134 144 141 138 136 128 131 133 135 133 137 136 141
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 139 132 130 134 144 141 138 136 128 131 133 135 133 135 131 133
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.0 -54.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 78 79 78 75 74 73 70 68 61 56 54 55 55 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 29 36 37 42 39 53 51 48 39 15 9 0 -2 5 9
200 MB DIV 36 23 34 21 16 59 29 99 114 79 44 -10 17 65 94 102 47
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 3 8 8 10 5 2 3 -1 9 6 17 18 7
LAND (KM) -107 15 106 197 288 439 701 1041 1388 1728 1655 1525 1343 1255 1260 1180 1081
LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 12.2 13.5 14.7 16.0 17.3 20.0 22.9 26.2 29.6 33.0 36.6 40.2 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 17 17 17 18 18 18 17 15 12 10
HEAT CONTENT 3 10 5 4 6 13 8 11 7 4 15 9 13 20 28 39 29

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. 43. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 27. 31. 36. 43. 48. 50. 49. 47. 46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.1 12.2

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 09/13/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.2% 21.8% 10.3% 3.9% 4.7% 10.6% 10.7% 26.0%
Bayesian: 0.4% 5.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 10.1%
Consensus: 1.5% 9.1% 3.5% 1.3% 1.6% 3.6% 3.7% 12.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 09/13/2021 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 25 25 26 28 32 38 44 51 55 60 67 72 74 73 71 70
18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 22 26 32 38 45 49 54 61 66 68 67 65 64
12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 23 29 35 42 46 51 58 63 65 64 62 61
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[AutoPenalti]

Interesting slight dip towards the Leeward Islands:

https://i.imgur.com/vyK09hz.gif

Flow changes as it weakens.

[Kohlecane]

Interesting slight dip towards the Leeward Islands:

https://i.imgur.com/vyK09hz.gif

This track even showing the weakening trend, is just eerie especially near that 20N/60W, throw it N a few more degrees closer to 25N add that PVS and the current steering pattern and.. yeah definitely keeping an eye on this one. The ensembles posted seem to hone in between 18N-22N/60W with it getting weaker little bit of a sigh for LI, but I hat that spread of SW-NE after 65W. Still early IMHO and have a few days to see how it really gets going.

[Spacecoast]

Comparison of last three ECENS: Weaker and more west...



Comparison of last two GEFS: Less curvy? Still quite the spread.

[SFLcane]

Interested in seeing what the hwrf does for this wave.

[SFLcane]

[Kohlecane]

Comparison of last three ECENS: Weaker and more west...
[url]https://i.ibb.co/YtzJmmz/ecmal.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/fQv5fjz/ecmah.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/hCCFjRb/ecmai.jpg [/url]
Comparison of last two GEFS: Less curvy? Still quite the spread.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/j3tWxjY/ecmak.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/x2vFtgm/ecmaj.jpg [/url]

I don't like the few members headed straight for SC

[Kohlecane]

Can anyone post a Calibrated risk ensembles on this or is it to soon?

[aspen]

12z GFS seems a little further SW by 162hr.

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS seems a little further SW by 162hr.

Also seems to be weaker with the TUTT, we’ll have to see as it would be more likely to survive and also all one has to look at although an extreme example is Andrew in 1992 as there was a pretty substantial TUTT it went through and barely survived but once on the other side thrived and explosively deepened so while it would most likely be diffuse at the other end of the TUTT until 95L is gone this needs to be watched

PS I’m not expecting anything close to Andrew in strength but the pattern isn’t that dissimilar

[Kohlecane]

Bit slower on the 12z through 204

[AutoPenalti]

12z GFS seems a little further SW by 162hr.

Also seems to be weaker with the TUTT, we’ll have to see as it would be more likely to survive and also all one has to look at although an extreme example is Andrew in 1992 as there was a pretty substantial TUTT it went through and barely survived but once on the other side thrived and explosively deepened so while it would most likely be diffuse at the other end of the TUTT until 95L is gone this needs to be watched

PS I’m not expecting anything close to Andrew in strength but the pattern isn’t that dissimilar

The TUTT is broader actually, it seems to be aided by the development of the Bahamas wave.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET again keeps it weak and then it dissipates very quickly, much faster than the 0Z run:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 10.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2021 0 10.9N 10.3W 1011 10
0000UTC 14.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

[Kohlecane]

12z GFS seems a little further SW by 162hr.

Also seems to be weaker with the TUTT, we’ll have to see as it would be more likely to survive and also all one has to look at although an extreme example is Andrew in 1992 as there was a pretty substantial TUTT it went through and barely survived but once on the other side thrived and explosively deepened so while it would most likely be diffuse at the other end of the TUTT until 95L is gone this needs to be watched

PS I’m not expecting anything close to Andrew in strength but the pattern isn’t that dissimilar

In all honesty hate to bring up that name, but as far as throwing the idea that a weaker system would diminish Andrew is a good example of a weaker system pushing through such pattern and surviving IMO

[Kohlecane]

12z GFS seems a little further SW by 162hr.

Also seems to be weaker with the TUTT, we’ll have to see as it would be more likely to survive and also all one has to look at although an extreme example is Andrew in 1992 as there was a pretty substantial TUTT it went through and barely survived but once on the other side thrived and explosively deepened so while it would most likely be diffuse at the other end of the TUTT until 95L is gone this needs to be watched

PS I’m not expecting anything close to Andrew in strength but the pattern isn’t that dissimilar

In all honesty hate to bring up that name, but as far as throwing the idea that a weaker system would diminish Andrew is a good example of a weaker system pushing through such pattern and surviving IMO

[toad strangler]

12z GFS hour 210 95L is just crawling along. Further S and slower but beginning to wash out.

[Kohlecane]

little bit of a sike out pushing through HB at 240... Maybe spoke to soon lol