ATL: PETER - Models

[Blown Away]

06z GFS brings a weakening TS/TD into NE Caribbean/PR/Hispaniola...

[kevin]

06z HWRF track at 6 hour intervals. Green is pre-formation/TD, yellow is TS (35 - 65 kt) and red is hurricane strength (65+ kt). HWRF ends the run with a 981mb/75kt cat 1.

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/kagi2PC.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/9YvpxjB.jpg

06z... TVCN near 20N/60W at end run, likely because of a weaker system,,,

Quite a southerly dip compared to the 00z MG. I do agree that the next 48-72 hours will likely become the true player in how this storm goes beyond 60W IMHO

[aspen]

06z HWRF track at 6 hour intervals. Green is pre-formation/TD, yellow is TS (35 - 65 kt) and red is hurricane strength (65+ kt). HWRF ends the run with a 981mb/75kt cat 1.

https://i.imgur.com/HNca7IZ.png

I would say that looks fishy, but it looks more like a certain lobster than anything else.

[Blown Away]

12z... Through Hebert Box... Set up seems very complicated with the model flopping from OTS to NE Caribbean... ATM 95L likely to be a struggling system as it approaches the NE Caribbean...

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/T5AKJyy.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Q5TUhzF.jpg

12z... Through Hebert Box... Set up seems very complicated with the model flopping from OTS to NE Caribbean... ATM 95L likely to be a struggling system as it approaches the NE Caribbean...

For the record.,. The Herbert box only matters for SFL when there’s a passage of a major hurricane. Which in this case looks highly doubtful

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/T5AKJyy.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Q5TUhzF.jpg

12z... Through Hebert Box... Set up seems very complicated with the model flopping from OTS to NE Caribbean... ATM 95L likely to be a struggling system as it approaches the NE Caribbean...

For the record.,. The Herbert box only matters for SFL when there’s a passage of a major hurricane. Which in this case looks highly doubtful

I feel it'd be the opposite because a stronger cane would tend to move poleward as it rounds a ridge.

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/T5AKJyy.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Q5TUhzF.jpg

12z... Through Hebert Box... Set up seems very complicated with the model flopping from OTS to NE Caribbean... ATM 95L likely to be a struggling system as it approaches the NE Caribbean...

That was quite a bit south from the global models...

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/T5AKJyy.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Q5TUhzF.jpg

12z... Through Hebert Box... Set up seems very complicated with the model flopping from OTS to NE Caribbean... ATM 95L likely to be a struggling system as it approaches the NE Caribbean...

For the record.,. The Herbert box only matters for SFL when there’s a passage of a major hurricane. Which in this case looks highly doubtful

Truth

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/T5AKJyy.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Q5TUhzF.jpg

12z... Through Hebert Box... Set up seems very complicated with the model flopping from OTS to NE Caribbean... ATM 95L likely to be a struggling system as it approaches the NE Caribbean...

Interesting how the tracks all dip south before resuming a WNW to NW motion.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/T5AKJyy.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Q5TUhzF.jpg

12z... Through Hebert Box... Set up seems very complicated with the model flopping from OTS to NE Caribbean... ATM 95L likely to be a struggling system as it approaches the NE Caribbean...

For the record.,. The Herbert box only matters for SFL when there’s a passage of a major hurricane. Which in this case looks highly doubtful

I feel it'd be the opposite because a stronger cane would tend to move poleward as it rounds a ridge.

I would normally agree with this as it’s standard climo but the H boxes were created with majors as a necessary ingredient. Anyway, I personally look at the H boxes as unreliable antiquated old school “tool”

[Spacecoast]

Comparing last two ensemble runs..(note - Euro genesis @ higher latitude (above 10N) than GEFS)
ECENS: tight spread, fewer members, more casualties.



GEFS: still large spread. Weaker, w/ only a few stronger members making past 20N

[cheezyWXguy]

Comparing last two ensemble runs..(note - Euro genesis @ higher latitude (above 10N) than GEFS)
ECENS: tight spread, fewer members, more casualties.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/8jYV360/ecmba.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bmBv2B4/ecmbb.jpg [/url]

GEFS: still large spread. Weaker, w/ only a few stronger members making past 20N
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Jz508s9/ecmbd.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bLqPt8n/ecmbc.jpg [/url]

Interesting that a lot of the members of both gefs and eps that keep this weak ultimately push it through the Caribbean. Seems unlikely that it won’t develop at all in the mdr, but if it doesn’t it might be trouble down the road.

[aspen]

The HWRF’s track would send this over Larry’s cold wake and through the brunt of the TUTT. Both would likely kill it. Further SW, and it would be over 28-29C SSTs and might be able to survive a less hostile part of the TUTT.

Also, there’s another low-rider at the end of the run on the HWRF-P.

[aspen]

12z ICON is far weaker, but despite never getting 95L to hurricane intensity, it keeps it alive all the way to the Bahamas.

[tolakram]

GFS back to late development

[aspen]

The UL setup on the 12z GFS isn’t awful. Yeah, there’s a TUTT with 20-40 kt winds in the 200mb level, but most winds are in roughly the same direction as 95L’s motion, so net shear isn’t as high as if they were perpendicular like Nicholas at landfall.

Update: okay it gets a lot worse by 168hr. It seems that the most conductive 200mb environment will be from early Saturday to early Monday, before the TUTT really kicks in.

[SFLcane]

Gfs has this surviving the Tutt.

Interesting

[gatorcane]

Adios on the 12Z GFS:

[SFLcane]

Adios on the 12Z GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/G2j6Thf1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-246.gif

It’s late sept so that’s expected.