ATL: PETER - Models

[IcyTundra]

The only thing saving the SE from getting hit this run is that shortwave trough in the atlantic. If that wasn't there then the ridge would be to strong to turn 95L out to sea.

[SouthFLTropics]

The only thing saving the SE from getting hit this run is that shortwave trough in the atlantic. If that wasn't there then the ridge would be to strong to turn 95L out to sea.

SE gets spared this run but I'm not so sure that the NE doesn't get smacked.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep, Boston and Cape Cod take a direct hit.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is much slower and further SE than the 18z.

[ElectricStorm]

Man the NE gets hit with a major this run. Yeah that's not happening but at least it's entertaining Gotta love fantasy land GFS

The major near Bahamas part of the run is certainly possible though

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS wants the Long Island Express 2.0. Good thing that it won't happen but it is some nice eye candy.

[IcyTundra]

Major Hurricane making landfall in Maine. Yep this sure takes the cake for craziest GFS fantasyland run this season.

[Landy]

It's going to be a long few days of watching with this one.

[aspen]

06z GFS once again survives the TUTT. Strangely, another TC randomly forms next Wednesday ahead of 95L and makes landfall in the Carolinas. This is the first run of any model I’ve seen to show such a system.

Update: passes between the US and Bermuda like Earl ‘10, peaking as a strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4.

[SouthFLTropics]

I have to wonder what that run would have looked like had that other system not developed off of the Carolinas.


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[aspen]

6z HWRF takes forever to develop 95L, and it only gets it to a mid-grade TS before weakening begins on Monday.

Edit: actually it’s only a quick weakening before it resumes strengthening. This run is back to being on the SW side of the model guidance, and puts 95L at around 15N/55W by 126hr.

[Blown Away]

6z HWRF takes forever to develop 95L, and it only gets it to a mid-grade TS before weakening begins on Monday.

06z HWRF... Finishes 2 degrees S and 4-5 degrees W of 00z... Finishes as moderate TS compared to Cat 1 on 00z... It seems if 95L delays significant development until after @50W or remains a weaker/shallower TD/TS it may impact the NE Caribbean/GA... NHC says 90% of development, so I'm assuming 95L gets named...

[SFLcane]

I have to wonder what that run would have looked like had that other system not developed off of the Carolinas.


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+1

If it’s a ghost storm look out below.

[SFLcane]

Takes forever to develop based on satellite this thing is in no hurry so it might be right.

[AutoPenalti]

Well now this is got slightly more interesting.

[aspen]

Takes forever to develop based on satellite this thing is in no hurry so it might be right.

https://i.postimg.cc/rwHLNF6M/990336-D3-47-BE-4779-9-D0-E-FDFA7-C9064-FE.png

In this scenario, 95L could attempt a RI phase (the UL environment is decent and it’s over 28.5-29.5C SSTs with good OHC), but the TUTT awaits further NE. Anything from a weak TS to a low-end major is possible in this type of track depending on how 95L puts itself together on Saturday and Sunday. The slower 95L develops in the 3-5 day range, the more likely it’ll be killed by the TUTT.

Part of the reason for the slow development could be the offset of the mid-level spin (~12N) from the main center of vorticity (~10N), and over the next few days the spin and northern lobe rotate down towards the main vort, with 95L concentrating at 10-11N like the GFS/HWRF have been showing.

[AutoPenalti]

Huh... that low off the Carolinas wasn't there last night.

[RevanTheJedi96]

00Z GFS wants the Long Island Express 2.0. Good thing that it won't happen but it is some nice eye candy.

It absolutely 100% could happen. New England is severely overdue for a hurricane and has gotten insanely lucky since Bob.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1438128631113469953

[Stormybajan]

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1438128631113469953?

Wouldnt this cause for the vorticity to jump north then instead? Doesnt vorticity always follow the convection? Like what the euro shows