ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Stormybajan]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1441263407810838539



Seems over the last hour or 2 Sam has a pulse down for sure, but based on this the eyewall may be complete and its starting to gain more latitude imo

[grapealcoholic]

HWRF thinks it's a 979 hurricane

[Sciencerocks]

[Subtrop]

AL, 18, 2021092406, , BEST, 0, 114N, 416W, 65, 993, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1011, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092406, , BEST, 0, 114N, 416W, 65, 993, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 15, 20, 1011, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092406, , BEST, 0, 114N, 416W, 65, 993, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[galaxy401]

Went from a TD to a hurricane in just 24 hours. Since Sam is moving relatively slowly, we got a lot of time to watch its movements. It still won't reach 60W by Tuesday. Really curious on how strong he will be.

[kevin]

AL, 18, 2021092406, , BEST, 0, 114N, 416W, 65, 993, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1011, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092406, , BEST, 0, 114N, 416W, 65, 993, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 15, 20, 1011, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092406, , BEST, 0, 114N, 416W, 65, 993, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

Looks like we have hurricane Sam. If the NHC follows this data then the first hurricane advisory will be only 18 hours after Sam became a tropical storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Extratropical94]

7th hurricane of the season, now forecast to reach cat 4

INIT 24/0900Z 11.5N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W 110 KT 125 MPH

[kevin]

7th hurricane of the season, now forecast to reach cat 4

INIT 24/0900Z 11.5N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W 110 KT 125 MPH

Since it's very likely that Sam will become a MH, that means we would be at 18/7/4 with October still to go.

[cycloneye]

Went from a TD to a hurricane in just 24 hours. Since Sam is moving relatively slowly, we got a lot of time to watch its movements. It still won't reach 60W by Tuesday. Really curious on how strong he will be.

And recon will be flying starting on Monday morning and those missions will be very important especially the gulfstream ones.

[Iceresistance]

That Monstrous Northern Band is limiting Sam somewhat, it's only a matter of time before this dies out & there will be virtually nothing that will stop him from RI . . .

[Ubuntwo]

When are we thinking the eye starts clearing out? Modeling has it popping out late this morning, but we have seen systems with tight cores take a little longer than usual to do so.

[aspen]

Not a good structure this morning. Like Larry, Sam is dealing with a massive outer band that needs to dissipate.

[kevin]

Looks like the outer band is slowly losing strength (peaked about 2 - 3 hours ago), but it'll still take a little while before it has dissipated.

[kevin]

Note that both HWRF and HMON also keep Sam at the same pressure/intensity for the next 8 - 10 hours or so until it manages to become more symmetrical and manages to get rid of its northern band. Only afterwards (21z/00z) they start with RI.

[Blown Away]

Sam a little ragged IMO on the IR this morning, but likely healthy at the low levels.

[tolakram]

[cheezyWXguy]

Interesting structural changes going on. Although the cdo as warmed, it looks like it’s expanding a little bit. And now that the northern band is quickly weakening I don’t think it’ll be long before colder cloud tops reappear in the cdo

[HurricaneEnzo]

7th hurricane of the season, now forecast to reach cat 4

INIT 24/0900Z 11.5N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W 110 KT 125 MPH

Since it's very likely that Sam will become a MH, that means we would be at 18/7/4 with October still to go.

Don't forget November. We had the 2 strongest storms of the year last season in November. We are not likely to repeat that but you never know.

[cycloneye]

A. 18L (SAM)

B. 24/1130Z

C. 11.4N

D. 42.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0. THE
SYSTEM HAS A DISTINCT BANDING FEATURE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT IS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE CORE. TOWERING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO FORM AROUND SYSTEM LLCC ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A
DEEPENING SYSTEM. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET IS 4.0 AND PT IS
4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT LLCC POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL