2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[blp]

Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.

Of course. Relax. There isn't another model that reaches this far out Nobody is sounding an alarm.

The vorticity starts under 240 on both 12z and 18z which used to be inside reality timeframe. That is why I mentioned it. The CMC and Euro show nada so far. Let's see what happens.

[SFLcane]

Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.

Of course. Relax. There isn't another model that reaches this far out Nobody is sounding an alarm.

Just a little excited to see the gfs actually bring a hurricane close to SFL.

Maybe I should frame it

[boca]

Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.

Of course. Relax. There isn't another model that reaches this far out Nobody is sounding an alarm.

Just a little excited to see the gfs actually bring a hurricane close to SFL.

Maybe I should frame it

It’s pure model stuff but first time this season.

[Teban54]

Unsurprisingly, 0z GFS drops the WCar system and the EPac long-tracker. Also unsurprisingly, the vorticity for the WCar system gets sent into the EPac and develops there at the end of this run.

[Ubuntwo]

6z GFS sends the Caribbean system into the FL Keys. Takes a little longer to consolidate so makes it further west before turning NNE. Remains to be seen whether this is a phantom.

[NDG]

Another look at the 06z GFS fantasy range.

[SFLcane]

Classic October track heading NE into SFL. Again we’ll see if this signal is there a week from now.

[Shell Mound]

https://i.postimg.cc/T2zTXq0c/C9696-D21-4144-49-C1-85-B0-FC98440-EE7-E0.png

https://i.postimg.cc/sgyyMjtQ/B36-EB1-FF-5-DBC-4-AC2-B73-C-12-F8046-D26-A3.png

The track and intensity over Cuba are similar to Michelle's (2001).

[Category5Kaiju]

So at least there is no random pinup that Sam burps up off the Eastern Seaboard according to the latest GFS. More realistic run imho

[Category5Kaiju]

Wait it is just me or is Tropical Tidbits really struggling to get going on my computer?

[boca]

Wait it is just me or is Tropical Tidbits really struggling to get going on my computer?

I’m having a problem as well on the site.

[DioBrando]

Wait it is just me or is Tropical Tidbits really struggling to get going on my computer?

i feel for you brah, it's messed up on my computer

[gatorcane]

Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida.

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.



Long-range with strong westerly shear:

[AutoPenalti]

Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida.

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lcjhx61/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-168.gif

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvBfXMfR/gfs-shear-watl-fh204-264.gif

I feel it’s going to be the same pattern as 2020, had Eta not been engulfed in Continental Dry Air it would have been a lot stronger as it neared SE Florida...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida.

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lcjhx61/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-168.gif

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvBfXMfR/gfs-shear-watl-fh204-264.gif

The GFS showing this 240+ out is the equivalent to a cat 4 into miami.

[AlphaToOmega]

Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida.

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lcjhx61/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-168.gif

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvBfXMfR/gfs-shear-watl-fh204-264.gif

The GFS likes to exaggerate wind shear.

[gatorcane]

I agree, the GFS is likely overdoing the shear and dry air at least in the long-range. Likely will completely change in the next run.

[DioBrando]

Wow latest 12Z GFS not only ends the rainy season for South Florida early but has the westerlies well entrenched across all of the Gulf and Florida.

Looks like those sub-70 dew points will be arriving across metro SE Florida starting tomorrow and will last for a while with an abnormally dry airmass for this time of year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Lcjhx61/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-168.gif

Long-range with strong westerly shear:

https://i.postimg.cc/wvBfXMfR/gfs-shear-watl-fh204-264.gif

The GFS likes to exaggerate wind shear.

this tbh
and the worst offender is the CFS

[psyclone]

:uarrow: I agree, the GFS is likely overdoing the shear and dry air at least in the long-range. Likely will completely change in the next run.

What's noteworthy though is the extent to which Fall has been pressing into the southeast early this year. the current push of dry air is the 3rd time in september that dry, refreshing air has flooded the southeast US and these pushes are getting stronger. It's been a really nice September in places like Atlanta and Charlotte and even Savannah. It makes the GFS depiction more believable. The arrival of Autumn often runs interference for areas at higher late season risk and that may happen this year. definitely something to watch

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1441880952737828870