WPAC: MINDULLE - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Rapid scan

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 250009

A. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MINDULLE)

B. 24/2340Z

C. 16.85N

D. 138.19E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ23 KNES 250059
TCSWNP

A. 20W (MINDULLE)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 16.9N

D. 138.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. A
LLCC THAT IS ENBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. THE MET IS 4.5
BASED ON A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 5.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO SLIGHT
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION. OF NOTE IS THE APPEARANCE ON THIS
IMAGE OF A SLIGHTLY WARMER SET OF PIXELS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THIS
COULD BE AN EYE TRYING TO FORM...BUT I DO NOT BELIEVE IT IS AS THE FEATURE
OPENS THROUGH THE CDO ON SUCCESSIVE IMAGES. HOWEVER...AN EYE PATTERN
WAS PERFORMED USING THIS FEATURE AND RESULTED IN A DT OF 5.0 AS WELL.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2149Z 16.8N 138.3E SSMIS


...HOSLEY

Why is the JTWC 70???

[1900hurricane]

SATCON maybe. Every recent member estimate is surprisingly low. I doubt it's as low as JTWC says, but the oddly low SATCON is a big reason why I held at 80 kt for 00Z instead of going with a more aggressive 85 or 90 kt typical of the clear as day 5.0 FT.

[dexterlabio]

May easily surpass CHANTHU, thankfully won't impact land directly.

Well Mindulle could but Chanthu was really compact and small in nature, so it was capable of undergoing ERI that was off the charts...while this one has a large footprint, although with very, very favorable upper level environment, we can't be so sure if Mindulle's size can still be an impediment.

[Yellow Evan]

SATCON maybe. Every recent member estimate is surprisingly low. I doubt it's as low as JTWC says, but the oddly low SATCON is a big reason why I held at 80 kt for 00Z instead of going with a more aggressive 85 or 90 kt typical of the clear as day 5.0 FT.

SATCON is being pulled down by ADT, AMSU, and ATMS, so probably should be tossed.

[Hayabusa]

if only

[sikkar]

:lol: if only
https://i.imgur.com/afEi69p.png

One can dream .

[sikkar]

[sikkar]

[dexterlabio]

Banding eye alert

I wonder if Mindulle will be a precursor to more intense typhoons as the informal "super typhoon season" starts in October. It is worth noting that even in cold ENSO years, the Fall months feature the most number of super typhoons in the Western Pacific. One would think that the heart of the season would be the summer months (June to August).

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ23 KNES 250627
TCSWNP

A. 20W (MINDULLE)

B. 25/0530Z

C. 17.6N

D. 137.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A LLCC THAT IS EMBEDDED BY W RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. THE
MET IS 5.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION. OF NOTE HAS BEEN AN EYE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH 0430Z, AFTER WHICH IT CLOUDED OVER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Hayabusa]

Soon

[mrbagyo]

Mindulle can't even close its eyewall yet it appears it's already performing an EWRC

[Yellow Evan]

Not exactly an eye I expect to clear.

[Hayabusa]

SMAP estimate from 3 hours ago, 101*1.05 = 106 knots 1 min

WP, 20, 202109250821, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1760N, 13760E, , 1, 101, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 145, 120, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 20, 202109250821, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1760N, 13760E, , 1, 101, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 87, 56, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 20, 202109250821, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1760N, 13760E, , 1, 101, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 47, 37, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

[Hayabusa]

^
Actually the recommended is 0.93 so it could be up to 108 knots
Well anyway it's now a cat 4

20W.MINDULLE.115kts.944mb.18.1N.137.4E

[NotoSans]

ERC is now apparent on EIR as well, but JTWC’s intensity estimate is still reasonable given the SMAP pass.
 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1441766352625172481

[Iceresistance]

[InfernoFlameCat]

While Sam may be garnering all the attention right now, look at what this typhoon has been cooking up!