ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

[NDG]

Well look at Sam, will be a MH shortly in the middle of the Atlantic MDR, who would had thought of this earlier in the season. Not many.
I am still having a hard time getting used to a tropical system moving so slow down there even for this time of the year

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/891278959713587200/image0.jpg

East T#6.0 there. I expect a Cat 4 at 11am if this look continues and the EWRC doesn’t take over.

[GCANE]

Looks like ADT has it a Cat4 or very close.

[Ubuntwo]

The eye has cooled over the past half hour into the negatives. Some kind of structural fluctuation? Most recent MW pass had no hint of an ERC.

[aspen]

Eye is shrinking and warming on recent frames. Looks like the EWRC has begun.

Edit: microwave passes from 9z and 10z actually don’t show an outer eyewall trying to form like earlier passes posted here did. Not sure what the eye fluctuation is all about. Maybe some upwelling already? Maybe just a temporary fluctuation? It’s hard to tell when the only imagery I can access is that on WeatherNerds and CIRA, which update every 15 and 30 minutes, respectively; Tropical Tidbits isn’t working for some reason.

[Ubuntwo]

[Nimbus]

The outflow from major hurricanes effects the upper air patterns.
Model runs evolve helter skelter short term.
Recon tasking already dancing the latitude of investigation from 14.8 to NEAR 14.6N 52.1W in just 24 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/x0mShSt.png

Very ERCy at the surface.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/x0mShSt.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/891286944716292126/image0.png

Very ERCy at the surface.

That’s a very large outer eyewall, it looks larger than the CDO.

Of course this starts an EWRC before the 11am advisory when it could get upgraded to a Cat 4. It could also cause upwelling issues, but Sam will be moving into higher and higher OHC over the next few days as the EWRC completes. That’ll likely start another phase of RI.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/x0mShSt.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/891286944716292126/image0.png

Very ERCy at the surface.

That’s a very large outer eyewall, it looks larger than the CDO.

Of course this starts an EWRC before the 11am advisory when it could get upgraded to a Cat 4. It could also cause upwelling issues, but Sam will be moving into higher and higher OHC over the next few days as the EWRC completes. That’ll likely start another phase of RI.

To me is nothing more than a squall line well away from the core, is nothing close to an eyewall. Visible satellite clearly shows that.

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/x0mShSt.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/891286944716292126/image0.png

Very ERCy at the surface.

That’s a very large outer eyewall, it looks larger than the CDO.

Of course this starts an EWRC before the 11am advisory when it could get upgraded to a Cat 4. It could also cause upwelling issues, but Sam will be moving into higher and higher OHC over the next few days as the EWRC completes. That’ll likely start another phase of RI.

We also shouldn't overlook the impact of increasing shear over the same timeframe. Sam's structure already appears to be more tilted with height than it was at this time yesterday. The TUTT deepening well to its northeast is also contributing to a strong outer convective band in the southeastern quadrant. Southwesterly shear has produced similar outer "blobs" in other major hurricanes, especially Matthew (2016). This, in turn, cuts off inflow to a small inner core and promotes frequent EWRCs, even over warm waters. The combination of shear and lingering dry air will likely mean that Sam will either undergo lots of EWRCs or otherwise struggle to intensify much beyond a relatively steady state over the next several days, warmer waters notwithstanding.

The eye is cooling and becoming cloudy due to shear.

[Iceresistance]

There is no outflow from Sam right now . . .

[Shell Mound]

There is no outflow from Sam right now . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8shrb5aacd200df09fc8.gif

The TUTT is definitely and is going to be a limiting factor.

Sam probably peaked at 125 kt around 06:00 UTC but is down to 110 kt now.

[aspen]

Is this going to be a Larry repeat where it looks primed to become a Cat 4, but the environment is revealed to not be as exceptionally favorable as models originally forecast and it just fluctuates as a Cat 3 for like a week?

The HWRF has been very consistent about an anticyclone developing today.

[Iceresistance]

Upper-Level Steering is favoring due west into the Caribbean, especially the Triangle Ridge at 700-850 MB

200-700 MB


700-850 MB

[Ubuntwo]

Is this going to be a Larry repeat where it looks primed to become a Cat 4, but the environment is revealed to not be as exceptionally favorable as models originally forecast and it just fluctuates as a Cat 3 for like a week?

The HWRF has been very consistent about an anticyclone developing today.

Modeling has had this riding the 110-115kt boundary since it was an invest.

[NDG]

There is no outflow from Sam right now . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8shrb5aacd200df09fc8.gif

Sam does have an outflow, but only limited to the north and east, clearly seen on satellite.

[tolakram]

[aspen]

Hopefully the 5am intensity gets revised because this was clearly a major before…whatever is going on.