WPAC: MINDULLE - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

T7.0. This is catching up to Sam in intensity, and already has a better satellite presentation.

[Yellow Evan]

T7.0. Probably a Category 5 given it’s sustained itself.

[mrbagyo]

Morning rapid scan

[Hayabusa]

ADT raw is in 7.0s for two hours now

2021SEP25 211000 4.6 972.4 79.6 4.6 5.9 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.92 -77.41 EYE 14 IR 83.5 18.61 -136.79 ARCHER HIM-8 22.2
2021SEP25 214000 4.8 968.6 84.8 4.8 5.9 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.90 -77.37 EYE 18 IR 83.5 18.52 -136.83 ARCHER HIM-8 22.1
2021SEP25 221000 5.0 964.6 90.0 5.0 5.9 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 2.96 -77.21 EYE 18 IR 83.5 18.62 -136.87 ARCHER HIM-8 22.2
2021SEP25 224000 5.3 959.0 97.2 5.3 5.9 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.10 -76.79 EYE 17 IR 92.6 18.48 -136.86 ARCHER HIM-8 22.1
2021SEP25 231000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.8 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.28 -76.71 EYE 15 IR 92.6 18.58 -136.77 ARCHER HIM-8 22.2

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 260026

A. TYPHOON 20W (MINDULLE)

B. 26/0000Z

C. 18.49N

D. 136.81E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. PT AGREES, MET YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/1959Z 18.50N 137.08E SSMS


RHOADES

Rare good fix by Rhoades.

[Hayabusa]

cat 5

20W MINDULLE 210926 0000 18.6N 136.9E WPAC 140 918

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

SLIDER floater: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=mesoscale_01&x=862&y=1066&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Not a fan of tracking floaters, so here's a loop from the 10 minute view

[Hayabusa]

Latest JMA up to 100 knots (130 knot eq) and predicts it will reach Chanthu's peak

WTPQ21 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 18.6N 136.8E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 19.6N 136.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 280000UTC 20.7N 135.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 290000UTC 23.3N 134.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT =

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ23 KNES 260028
TCSWNP

A. 20W (MINDULLE)

B. 25/2330Z

C. 18.6N

D. 136.7E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN AN E#
OF 5.5 WITH AN EADJ OF +1.0 FOR A DT OF 6.5 MET AND PT=6.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.



I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

Can't tell if this is accurate or not or JTWC is right. Looking at a BD loop, a number of B spots appeared in the W ring at the 23:35 frame that wasn't available at 23:25. I'd probably go 130-135 but I understand 140. It's a better estimate than the NHC's estimate for Sam at the least.

[Hayabusa]

AMSU estimate from 4 hours ago

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 20W
Saturday 25sep21 Time: 2235 UTC
Latitude: 18.51 Longitude: 136.99
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 12 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 914 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 142 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -7.9 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.72
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.53
RMW: 18 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1006
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 26 Time (UTC): 0000

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[mrbagyo]

the eye has cleared flawlessly



WPAC wide view

[Ubuntwo]

[Hayabusa]

20+ eye temp

2021SEP26 023000 5.8 948.4 109.8 5.8 6.0 6.9 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.89 -74.59 EYE 23 IR 104.5 18.73 -136.72 ARCHER HIM-8 22.4

[mrbagyo]

To those who are wondering what's the name of the small island near Mindulle's projected path - It is Okinotorishima island controlled by Japan. According to wikipedia page (not the best source though)- the island has a platform with a helicopter landing pad and a large three-story building with a marine investigation facility and a meteorological station.

[Yellow Evan]

Classic T7.0. Probs willing to bump up to 145-150 given eye warmth.

[sikkar]

To those who are wondering what's the name of the small island near Mindulle's projected path - It is Okinotoroshima island controlled by Japan. According to wikipedia page (not the best source though)- the island has a platform with a helicopter landing pad and a large three-story building with a marine investigation facility and a meteorological station.

https://i.imgur.com/1aKAtn7.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/stCXBWd.png
https://i.imgur.com/aIpQxm5.png
https://i.imgur.com/gfvksW9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/bx1pS6X.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/HNGWmhz.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/OzX1ebV.jpg

Nice find! Here's a place that offers current conditions, hopefully it's authentic.
https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-tab ... ri%20Shima