#14 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:16 pm
Now that Sam watching is temporarily over, I have a bit more time to look at model runs.
As mentioned earlier, 12z (Sep 26) Euro and CMC now briefly develop both this system and the wave behind it. GFS also shows the same every run.
Models generally agree on a westward track, meaning the GFS no longer shows a recurve in the open Atlantic. There is disagreement on where exactly it will enter the Caribbean: 12z CMC and 12z GFS are the northernmost outliers with its remnant low reaching the northern tip of Lesser Antilles, while 12z Euro is the southernmost outlier and has its vorticity almost crashing into South America. The other GFS runs are somewhere inbetween.
Most models keep this system rather weak, peaking in the high 990s or higher and generally dissipating by the time it reaches the islands. Whether it's shear, dry air or Sam's cold wake, I don't know. Even models that have it enter the Caribbean don't show much redevelopment with the wave itself (the potential WCar system on GFS seems to be mostly related to a CAG or other kind of homegrown).
Given climatography, I wouldn't be surprised if this exceeds expectations and become stronger than currently forecast, though. It's October in the Caribbean, after all.
Update: 0z GFS continues to show its remnants tracking into the Caribbean with no development. 0z CMC has a Fujiwhara between the two systems and this one gets killed by the next wave's outflow while moving north, which I don't think is likely.
Last edited by
Teban54 on Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes