AlphaToOmega wrote:SteveM wrote:I guess they lowered numbers because of the lack of storms in July. Does seem kind of odd since SSTAs and ENSO are more favourable than they were at the time of the last forecast, but I'm sure there are many other factors.
The MJO and SAL are why there has been no activity in July. The models saw that coming. It seems odd that the CSU would lower its numbers due to intraseasonal variation, yet NOAA increased its numbers despite intraseasonal variation.
They use a new predictor based on a blend of the Euro + UKMET seasonal. Showed above normal shear for peak season so I think that went into it.