Texas Winter 2021-2022
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
CFS not looking good for us in November, but I've also seen patterns wasted in November so I kind of don't mind it lol.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Originally from aggiecutter from the Texas Fall 2021 Forum
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Come on, La Nina winter! Warm and dry across the south sounds perfect, to me.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here?fbclid=IwAR0tQwhXlQ6i5fbiAI9-qRqj4Q4jKyii3IYYBJBqpp6XDf9RH5jsYqSWN78
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here?fbclid=IwAR0tQwhXlQ6i5fbiAI9-qRqj4Q4jKyii3IYYBJBqpp6XDf9RH5jsYqSWN78
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Come on, La Nina winter! Warm and dry across the south sounds perfect, to me.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here?fbclid=IwAR0tQwhXlQ6i5fbiAI9-qRqj4Q4jKyii3IYYBJBqpp6XDf9RH5jsYqSWN78
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d69vjlOw3Nw
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Long-Range 0z GFS has rain/snow mix in Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I'm still on the, "big cold coming down early in the season," train. For a while, I have been thinking back to 1989 as a comparison to what were are going through now. Any more evidence would be welcoming. I mostly think the very cold Feb we had in '89, with the MONSTER cold we had in Dec. 89 cant be ignored.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I'm still on the, "big cold coming down early in the season," train. For a while, I have been thinking back to 1989 as a comparison to what were are going through now. Any more evidence would be welcoming. I mostly think the very cold Feb we had in '89, with the MONSTER cold we had in Dec. 89 cant be ignored.
The signal is there for early cold starting late November going into December. I've kind of had 2013 on my mind, which I'm sure no one in DFW wants to hear. The question will be if we can keep an active pattern with the cold.
I'm also optimistic about the winter outside of possible SSWs (which may not lead to cold) seems like the seasonal models like ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, which would favor a -EPO. This would keep us cool throughout the winter if it were to happen, especially if we can combine it with a +AO and ridging in the Southeast/East Coast. The caveat is that if you combine it with an SSW event with cold leaking into the Americas, you end up with your February 21s and December 1989s.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
18z GFS has Very Cold Trough in the Northern & Central Plains to start November/
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
It seems like we always have a warm pool in the GOA region now, but this one seems to be drifting into the sweet spot at the right time for winter.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Only care about the EPO this winter. High latitude blocking is more likely than usual, IMO. Just hope it pops in the right spot.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
My area has still not recovered from last February. I'm actually hoping for a mild wet winter this year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Seen enough blocking this Fall season to say with some confidence we are continuing the North Atlantic/Northeastern Canada blocking that has been prevalent since last winter. So far the Pacific hasn't let up but I'm sure sure it will periodically and if that blocking remains in place the cold air will have a good chance to move south this coming winter.
Emphasis again on the blocking, 2nd year Nina without it is a full blown torch, with it is a different story. Every Nina just about amasses really cold air somewhere in North America at some point. Just a matter of where it goes. In 2011-2012 it got stuck in Alaska and slid right on to Eastern Canada never allowed south.
Emphasis again on the blocking, 2nd year Nina without it is a full blown torch, with it is a different story. Every Nina just about amasses really cold air somewhere in North America at some point. Just a matter of where it goes. In 2011-2012 it got stuck in Alaska and slid right on to Eastern Canada never allowed south.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.
No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.
No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eIC14NM.jpg
Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sKc1r6e.jpg
What is this Winter looking like with the cAK?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Don’t look at NOAA’s winter outlook unless you want to get depressed.
Or you’re Wxman57.
Or you’re Wxman57.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Texas Snowman wrote:Don’t look at NOAA’s winter outlook unless you want to get depressed.
Or you’re Wxman57.
That's a Typical La Nina Outlook, they did the same general outlook last Winter as well.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.
No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eIC14NM.jpg
Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sKc1r6e.jpg
What is this Winter looking like with the cAK?
La Ninas do feature Northeast Pacific ridging that favors cold over Northwest North America. There's going to be a bout of cA at some point.
I don't fully trust NOAA winter forecast. They are too heavily reliant on ENSO and the percentages is too broadbrushed. In fact I would give them an F for last winter. The easiest forecast any winter in the world is to say cooler north warmer south.
Forecast
Reality was nearly opposite
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Some visuals of the differences, not exactly apples to apples but general idea. Path of least resistance. Both are Ninas with Northeast Pacific High regimes.
No blocking - cAK forced to move to Eastern Canada
https://i.imgur.com/eI%20C14NM.jpg
Blocking - cAK cannot go East and force the Arctic to dislodge south.
https://i.imgur.com/sK%20c1r6e.jpg
Blocking is such a beautiful thing for our winters. I think it takes a storm to blow up near Eastern Canada, get cut off and cause blocking around Greenland.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TheProfessor wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I'm still on the, "big cold coming down early in the season," train. For a while, I have been thinking back to 1989 as a comparison to what were are going through now. Any more evidence would be welcoming. I mostly think the very cold Feb we had in '89, with the MONSTER cold we had in Dec. 89 cant be ignored.
The signal is there for early cold starting late November going into December. I've kind of had 2013 on my mind, which I'm sure no one in DFW wants to hear. The question will be if we can keep an active pattern with the cold.
I'm also optimistic about the winter outside of possible SSWs (which may not lead to cold) seems like the seasonal models like ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, which would favor a -EPO. This would keep us cool throughout the winter if it were to happen, especially if we can combine it with a +AO and ridging in the Southeast/East Coast. The caveat is that if you combine it with an SSW event with cold leaking into the Americas, you end up with your February 21s and December 1989s.
From a Ryan Maue tweet:
"The threat for climate-induced extreme winter storms again in Texas this winter remains very high & the state remains increasingly vulnerable to wobbling polar vortex "deep freeze". Double dip La Niña."
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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