AlphaToOmega wrote:This might be an early clue as to what the ENSO state for 2022-2023 might be. The CanSIPS is showing very faint +ENSO conditions by September. There is a +PMM present, which could help trigger an El Niño event. It is early, but I will say that the CanSIPS caught -ENSO of 2021-2022 as early as October 2020.
https://i.postimg.cc/TYmJDT1d/cansips-ssta-noice-global-12.png
However, I will also say that the SST map conflicts with the VP map, which shows a solid La Niña-esque VP pattern during September. -VP across Africa and the Indian Ocean is to be expected, but +VP across the East Pacific during a +ENSO year seems absurd. As always when trying to forecast ENSO a year out, it is too early to say.
https://i.postimg.cc/5yykVTSH/cansips-chi200-global-12.png
I think there is a pretty good possibility we will be in El Nino this time next year. Sea temperature anomalies at depth are already showing a strong downwelling Kelvin Wave attempting to make it across the Pacific. Also a majority of the models are hinting at a possible El Nino and have been for some time. The only thing going against the possibility is that that the Pacific is in more of a -PDO than anything with all the anomalous warmth displaced in the subtropics. This could change though of course. For now though I'm assuming El Nino will return next fall regardless.